Cristian Stellini: Tottenham season to peter out under interim boss

*Published prior to Tottenham's 6-1 defeat at Newcastle*

• Paratici resigns as Spurs director of football

Then Antonio Conte's self destruction left Daniel Levy with little choice but to sack him.

A fresh start, that might do it... But in a surprising move, the Spurs chairman turned to Conte’s long-time assistant Cristian Stellini.

"Meet the new boss... Same as the old boss."

Top four? Give over.

Premier League top 4 finish odds (via Sky Bet)

• Manchester Utd - 1/9
• Newcastle - 2/7
• Brighton - 4/1
• Tottenham - 6/1
• Liverpool - 15/2
• Aston Villa - 28/1

Odds correct at 1650 BST (17/04/23)

Spurs have somehow become even more painfully predictable, with their season set to end with a whimper.

Their Conte disciple interim manager has stuck rigidly to the formation, style and team selection of his former boss, naming the same starting XI for all three of his games in charge.

Given Tottenham's underlying numbers have dropped off sharply since the World Cup, with them performing like a mid-table team for the past four months, it's no surprise they've continued to perform poorly when Stellini has changed nothing whatsoever.

Their expected goals for (xGF) per 90 this term is 1.55. Since Conte left it's 1.51. Their expected goals against (xGA) has gone from 1.31 to 1.27.

To the naked eye it's all looked the same and the spreadsheets back that up.

Infogol's performance-based table has Spurs sitting in eighth, with Brighton, Liverpool and Brentford all performing at a superior level according to xG data.

Unless Stellini shakes things up, which he won't, that's where they could very well end up.

And deservedly so.

Premier League to finish outside top 6 odds (via Sky Bet)

• Aston Villa - 1/9
• Liverpool - 5/4
• Tottenham - 11/8
• Brighton - 9/4
• Newcastle - 10/1
• Manchester Utd - 25/1

Odds correct at 1650 BST (17/04/23)

Frighteningly for Tottenham, things are likely to get worse before they get better, with Harry Kane widely expected to leave in the summer.

The England captain may be having his most productive campaign in terms of goals since 2017/18, but Spurs, more predictable than ever, have become more reliant on him than ever, too.

Kane has been responsible for 40% of the team’s xG this season. Last term, Heung-min Son claimed the Golden Boot with 23 goals from an xG of 15.42. With seven games to go, he’s on eight from 6.28.

Spurs have gone from having multiple goal threats to just one during a season when they actually brought in adequate depth.

Richarlison and Arnaut Danjuma (and to a lesser disagree Pape Sarr) must be watching on wondering how poorly their team-mates must perform for them to be given a chance.

Even when considering injuries, the ability to pick from Kane, Son, Richarlison, Danjuma and Dejan Kulusevski should allow a team to field one of the most potent attacks in the Premier League.

A new manager might’ve figured that out. But Stellini’s Spurs remain just as one-dimensional.

Stellini won't stop this Spurs slide. He doesn't know how to.

"Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."

More from Sporting Life

• Fixtures, results and live scores
• Expert xG analysis and features
• Transfer news and done deals
• Football and other sports tips
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.