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Free betting tips and match preview: Sky Bet Championship - Charlton v Millwall
The Friday night action in the Sky Bet Championship comes from The Valley where Charlton welcome Millwall.
Recommended bets
1pt Shaun Hutchinson to have 1+ shots on target at 10/3
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Charlton v Millwall (Sky Sports Main Event, 20:15 BST)
Charlton couldn't have asked for a better return to football. Wins over Hull and QPR, followed up with a draw away at Cardiff, have moved them four points clear of the drop zone.
A pleasing aspect of that for Lee Bowyer would be that they haven't conceded a goal across their previous three games; that goal difference boost could be crucial come the end of the season.
Friday sees them welcome a Millwall side who have failed to win since the restart. Two draws and a loss have moved them five points adrift of the play-off positions and they need to win here if they are to keep their top-six hopes alive. Defeat, combined with victory for Cardiff at Bristol City, would leave them with too much to do at this point in the season.
On current form, a strong argument can be made for Charlton's 11/4 price. They've coped without top scorer Lyle Taylor, who has now left the club, and a lengthy stoppage has helped their long injury list. The sad news of Wigan's administration has added them to the relegation mix but Charlton know they're not safe yet.
Just one of the six games involving these two since the break has seen over 2.5 goals and the same could be expected here. Both sides know the importance of the contest and there could be some reluctance to take risks in order to preserve what they already have.
Instead, the first best bet in this contest comes in backing a high corner count. Millwall, a strong side at attacking set-pieces, saw a total of 17 in their 1-1 draw with Swansea while there were 12 in the 0-0 contest at Barnsley. Charlton took ten in their win over QPR while there were a total of 12 in the away success at QPR.
The corner count hasn't lowered for these two since the break and a best price of 2/1 says there will be 12 or more on Friday night. At that price, given what we have seen in recent games, it is worth taking it on.
Even if that price drops to the 11/8 mark the value is still there. Anything above even money can be justified but as ever, a corners-based bet always relies on the flow of the game. The visitors will target this area as a good route to score.
Linking to the corners, it is also worth backing Shaun Hutchinson to have at least one shot on target at huge odds of 10/3. The Millwall centre-back has three on his tally already this season.
The defender provides a real presence in the air. Hutchinson has hit double figures in successful aerial duels in six different league contests while there have only been five games where that figure has dropped below three.
If this is a game where the corner count is high, there's a real chance that Hutchinson will have opportunities to find the net once again. There's a best price of 12/1 available on the Millwall man scoring anytime, 28/1 says it's the first goal of the game, but the value on offer in the stats-market is worth taking instead.
Charlton's price is attractive for success here but there is some reluctance given the importance of the contest to Millwall as well. The form has been a bit of a contrast since the restart, but both sides have a strong argument for three points.
Instead, when it comes to the outright result, taking a bit of a safety net with Charlton or draw on the double chance does return a general price of 8/13 across the board which seems reasonable.
However, the corners is where the best bets can be found in this contest. We hit double figures in the meeting between these two sides back in November and we are aiming for 12 or more in this meeting.
Score prediction: Charlton 1-1 Millwall (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Over 11.5 corners at 2/1
Best bet: Shaun Hutchinson to have 1+ shots on target at 10/3
Odds correct at 1215 BST (02/07/20)
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