Athletic Bilbao and Barcelona face off in the Copa del Rey final, and Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to preview the game and provide best bets.
Copa del Rey Final betting tips: Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 6/4 (Betfred)
1pt Barcelona to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 21/10 (Sky Bet)
The Copa del Rey Final takes place this weekend, if you thought it had already happened a few weeks ago, well, then you are correct.
Due to the manic schedule, the 2019/20 Copa final was postponed to this year, and the runners-up in that competition, Athletic Bilbao, have a second chance of silverware, as they also appear in the 2020/21 final.
Beaten by bitter Basque rivals Real Sociedad by a 1-0 scoreline, Marcelino’s side will be pumped up for this, not wanting to lose two Copa finals in the space of two weeks.
They have good recent history against the final opponents, Barcelona, having beaten their illustrious opponents in the Spanish Super Cup final back in January, so won’t fear Lionel Messi and co.
Bilbao looking sturdy
While they have already lost a Copa del Rey final this calendar year, as mentioned, Bilbao have a piece of silverware under their belt, something Ronald Koeman’s side haven’t.
There were defensive teething issues in the wake of the appointment of Marcelino, but they are much more solid now, conceding two goals in only one of their last 10 matches.
Since his appointment during the winter break, Bilbao have played 13 La Liga matches and allowed an average of just 1.15 expected goals against (xGA) per game – the fifth best defensive process in the league.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Their attack has been good, averaging 1.55 expected goals for (xGF), which ranks them seventh since Marcelino’s appointment, so all the data suggests that they are a top-six challenger under their new coach.
However, while they continue to look strong at the back, the goals have started to dry up, meaning their matches have been very low-scoring of late.
Barca attack is purring
Barcelona are understandably odds on favourites to win this game in 90 minutes, as they had been in sensational form up until last weekend, when losing El Clasico.
Prior to that defeat, Koeman’s team had been unbeaten in 19 league games, winning 16 of them, including a 2-1 win over Athletic Bilbao.
Barca have been the best team in La Liga over that stretch according to the underlying data, averaging a staggering 2.27 xGF and 1.00 xGA per game.
This represents one of their biggest games of the season to date, with a looming clash against Atletico Madrid up there too, so they will be needing their little magician to be at his very best.
Lionel Messi has quietly gone about his business this season, racking up 23 goals and eight assists across his 28 league appearances, and domestically he has averaged staggering underlying numbers.
Where is the value?
This game should be attack v defence for the most part, with Barcelona being the aggressors and Athletic Bilbao aiming to strike on the counter-attack with the pace of Iñaki Williams.
Barca’s strength lies in their attacking creativity, while Bilbao’s lies in their stubborn and improving defence, so we could see few goals yet again in a Copa del Rey Final.
I was surprised to see UNDER 2.5 GOALS priced at 6/4 in places for this one, and that to me is worth a punt, especially given Bilbao’s recent displays.
Ultimately though, I expect Barcelona to eke out a narrow win, with their pressure to eventually pay off, and a little magic from Messi – just as he did in the 2015 Copa final against the same opponents.
Rather than back Barca to win and Under 3.5 Goals at a relatively short price, I’m happy to back three correct scores in a group bet on Sky Bet.
BARCELONA TO WIN 1-0, 2-0 OR 2-1 can be backed at 21/10, and that makes great appeal in what should be a tight game with Barca prevailing.
Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 6/4 (Betfred)
- 1pt Barcelona to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 21/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Athletic Bilbao 0-2 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1500 BST (16/04/21)
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