The Copa America gets under way in the early hours of Friday morning, and Jake Osgathorpe delivers his outright tips for the tournament.
- Sporting Life tipped the winners of Euro 2020 (Italy 11/1), with Jake tipping the winners of the last two major international tournaments - 2022 World Cup (Argentina 7/1) and AFCON 2023 (Ivory Coast 7/1)
- Jake finished the 23/24 season +69.7pts in profit
Football betting tips: Copa America 2024
5pts Argentina to win Copa America at 2/1 (Betway)
3pts Argentina to win Copa America and Lionel Messi Golden Boot at 7/1 (General)
1pt Uruguay to win Copa America and Darwin Nunez Golden Boot at 33/1 (General)
1pt Argentina, Ecuador, Uruguay and Colombia to win their groups at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
Howdy sports fans, y'all ready for some high quality soccer?
Yes, that's correct, this year's Copa America takes place in the USA. It is unusual that the host nation isn't a South American country, this being only the second time in competition's history that a nation outside South America will be hosts - the first time was, you guessed it, the USA in 2016.
While the line 'money talks, eh?' might seem fitting, it has to be said that Ecuador were originally scheduled to host this edition but declined, meaning the US - World Cup hosts in 2026 - came to the rescue. It is the norm nowadays that sides outside South America participate in the tournament, and this time we have an enticing 16-team line-up featuring the 10 CONMEBOL sides and six CONCACAF nations - USA, Canada, Mexico, Panama, Costa Rica and Jamaica.
That means a format of four groups of four, with two qualifying for the knockout rounds from each. The tournament gets underway on June 21, meaning we get a lovely crossover with the Euros, with both finals played on the same day (July 14).
📺⚽️ Football between June 16th to June 28th:
— Football Tweet ⚽ (@Football__Tweet) June 12, 2024
🇪🇺 2pm: EUROs
🇪🇺 5pm: EUROs
🇪🇺 8pm: EUROs
🌎 11pm: Copa América
🌎 2am: Copa América
Days of nothing but pure football. 🫶 pic.twitter.com/aLmKE1fhuA
But, given the time difference, this month will be a football (or soccer) fan's dream. You won't have to leave Scotland vs Hungary after 60 minutes to catch the start of USA vs Bolivia. If you wanted to, you could watch the day's matches back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back. That's dope man.
More Messi magic?
While I really didn't want to, I find myself simply having to back reigning World and Copa America champions ARGENTINA TO WIN COPA AMERICA, even though they are short-priced favourites.
The 2/1 available with Betway about them lifting the trophy may seem skinny but it's in fact value. I'd personally make Argentina 6/4 to reign supreme in the US, not only because of their pedigree and recent success, nor because of their quality squad, but because of the draw.
Copa America 2024 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Argentina - 7/4
- Brazil - 9/4
- Uruguay - 5/1
- Colombia - 10/1
- Mexico - 11/1
- USA - 12/1
- Ecuador - 16/1
- 33/1 bar
Odds correct at 1600 (06/06/24)
The draw has been incredibly kind to the reigning World Cup holders to say the least. They are in a straightforward Group A alongside two South American sides in decline (Peru and Chile) and a Canada side not at the level required to be competitive.
Breeze through that, and a potential quarter-final tie with Mexico or Ecuador looks extremely favourable, with a semi-final match-up against either the other of those two or the runner-up from their own group, meaning La Albiceleste should make the final at a canter. And their record in finals under Lionel Scaloni hasn't been bad, has it.
The other half of the draw contains all of Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia and the USA, just to highlight how kind the draw has been.
That means LIONEL MESSI should get six games to rack up the goals, and despite being 36 years old, he is still the main man, and for those who want a slightly bigger price about the favourites, we can back MESSI GOLDEN BOOT AND ARGENTINA TO WIN COPA AMERICA at 7/1.
He scored a joint-highest four at the last Copa America in which Argentina were successful, before firing seven at the World Cup, only to be pipped by Kylian Mbappe.
He has three in five recent World Cup qualifiers and in total, get this, he's scored 38 times in his last 44 international appearances. What a bloke. If Argentina are to win back-to-back Copa Americas, it is once again going to be Lionel Messi driving the team.
So, with a kind draw, Argentina and Messi should rack up the goals and go all the way once again.
Copa America 2024 Winner & Golden Boot odds (via Betfair)
- Argentina / Lionel Messi - 7/1
- Brazil / Vinicius Jr- 11/1
- Brazil / Lionel Messi - 12/1
- Argentina / Vinicius Jr - 14/1
- Argentina / Julian Alvarez - 14/1
- Argentina / Darwin Nunez - 18/1
- Brazil / Darwin Nunez - 22/1
- Uruguay / Darwin Nunez - 33/1
Odds correct at 1600 (17/06/24)
Avoid Brazil
On the same side of the draw, Ecuador could be interesting to follow having improved and impressed in recent years. They are 13/8 to win Group B which looks big given they're up against an overrated Mexico, a poor Venezuela and a Jamaica side that does have talent but never shows up in tournaments.
The other side of the draw looks wide open. Brazil are priced on name to win the Copa America, with their squad a far cry from recent editions and an unproven manager overseeing things.
They have steadied the ship after losing three straight World Cup qualifiers, but huge question marks remain, and they are far from guaranteed to win Group D, with a dangerous Colombia more than capable of causing a shock.
Whether Seleção finish first or second in that group, they face a very tough run to a likely final with Argentina. If all goes to plan, they will have to take on host nation USA and Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay to reach the showpiece. Not ideal.
I'm happy to swerve them at 9/4, and the way this side of the draw has played out makes it difficult to want to get anyone onside.
No stopping Nunez
Whoever reaches the final will have faced a much tougher run of fixtures than their opponent, which is a huge negative in terms of mental and physical fatigue, but I will have another winner/top scorer bet and back URUGUAY TO WIN AND DARWIN NUNEZ GOLDEN BOOT at 33/1.
I am not as confident about this selection as the Argentina one, hence the stake and the price, but I wanted something pro-Uruguay as I am very hot on them right now.
Marcelo Bielsa has La Celeste purring as they head to the USA, impressing on the eye and with their results. They sit second in South American World Cup qualifying - winning four and losing one of six - beating both Brazil and Argentina in that stretch.
He has them playing high-intensity football, which does suit the players at his disposal. They have a lovely balance to their XI and are a very dangerous opponent in the outright, but as discussed, their path to the final is just horrendous.
That's why I'm not taking them to win the competition as a single at 6/1, or backing Nunez as a single at 6/1, as for me they are both too short given the level of opposition they have to beat, even though they are capable of doing it.
Combining with Nunez to top-score boosts the price enough to have me wanting to put a point on it - if they are to go far, Nunez will have had a stellar tournament.
The Liverpool forward looks right at home in Bielsa's crazy football, with his energy and running power perfect for the former Leeds boss. And Nunez has been scoring too, believe it or not.
He is the top scorer in South American World Cup qualifying, netting five in six, while he bagged a hat-trick in his most recent outing against Mexico. He's in-form, enjoying the international stage and can (hopefully) fire Uruguay to success.
Group fun
I'll round things off by piecing together everything said so far and putting it all in a Group Win Acca.
Group A should be a cruise for ARGENTINA, and while Group B will be more competitive, ECUADOR can take advantage of an underwhelming Mexico to finish top.
The bottom half of the draw is where things get interesting, but URUGUAY are nicely priced to finish ahead of the USA, Panama and Bolivia in Group C.
To boost the price, backing COLOMBIA to take the scalp of Brazil and finish top of Group D certainly appeals. The Colombians are unbeaten in 24 internationals heading into the tournament, and can pounce on an underwhelming Brazil side.
Odds correct at 1330 BST (18/06/24)
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