Liverpool’s season appears to be petering out.
The Reds look set to claim a 20th league title but they’ve been far from convincing over recent weeks.
After defeat to Fulham on Sunday afternoon, Arne Slot’s side find themselves 11 points clear of Arsenal at the top of the table with just seven games remaining.
Only a spectacular turn of events will prevent them from being named champions.
It isn’t yet a formality but if the Reds remain professional, there’s a chance the title is won in April.
But that's been an issue since the turn of the year for Liverpool though. That is why their quadruple hopes were ended by Plymouth Argyle in the FA Cup. Their treble hopes were shattered by Paris Saint-Germain at Anfield while Newcastle prevented them from retaining the Carabao Cup on their way to a league and cup double.
Title success should not be viewed as a consolation prize, and it definitely won't be, but after such promise heading into February, the season does appear to have flatlined.
Defeat to Plymouth was followed up with a 2-2 draw with Everton at Goodison Park. Liverpool then limped over the line at Anfield in a 2-1 win over Wolves, a game in which the visitors dominated the second half. Aston Villa claimed a 2-2 draw with the champions elect.
The Reds did a number against Man City at the Etihad to claim a 2-0 victory before putting on a show against Newcastle at Anfield in what was their last confident and assured showing.
That was back in February.
Since then, things haven’t been straightforward for Slot and his players. A second half comeback was needed against Southampton. They claimed an undeserved win at the Parc des Princes, lost to the Ligue 1 champions at Anfield, were humbled by Newcastle at Wembley, they eked out a 1-0 victory over Everton before this loss to Fulham.
This downturn in results and performances coincides with injury to Trent Alexander-Arnold. The right-back had an issue with his ankle against PSG at Anfield and has since missed games against Newcastle, Everton and the Cottagers.
In those games, Liverpool created chances with an expected goals (xG) value of just 3.8 - the equivalent of 1.26 per 90.
For context, their xG per 90 average in the Premier League this season before their last two games was 2.27. Slot has the most potent attack in the English top-flight.
Yet across the last three matches, albeit one of those was a final, without Alexander-Arnold in the starting XI, the threat has vanished.
Liverpool’s rate of 1.26 xG per 90 across a 38-game season would give you an xG haul of 48. Those numbers aren’t anywhere near enough for a title challenge.
They’re not enough for a push for European football.
The attack has fallen off a cliff.
It is all tied to the wantaway No66 being injured. The Reds can’t funnel the ball quick enough to Mohamed Salah meaning he’s not been as much of a threat.
With no threat from Salah or Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool haven’t half looked blunt.
Against Fulham, they finished with an xG of 1.5. However, 1.45 of that arrived in the second half when Slot’s side needed to recover from 3-1 down and the hosts sat a lot deeper.
Marco Silva’s men had just 28% possession, down from the 47% they managed in the first half.
The Reds had an xG of 1.5 against Everton on Wednesday and Caoimhin Kelleher was the only Liverpool starter to have fewer touches than Salah. Against Newcastle, the Reds could only manage an xG of 0.8.
On Sunday, though, there was a bright spark. There was a glimpse of how a post-Alexander-Arnold world could look for Slot.
Conor Bradley was introduced with 23 minutes remaining. It was his first outing for the Reds since mid-February. He was only on the pitch briefly but he made a huge impact. He finished with the joint-most chances created (two) and he assisted Luis Diaz for Liverpool’s second.
He also won 100% of his tackles, 100% of his ground duels, made four recoveries and had a pass success rate of 80%. Bradley was playing as though he had a point to prove. And why wouldn’t he?
For the past fortnight, talk has been centred around how the Reds might replace Alexander-Arnold when he departs for Real Madrid.
What if the replacement is already at the club?
He made the goal for Diaz. Picking the ball up in a central area, he ignores Salah who is in a one-on-one situation on the Liverpool right up against Antonee Robinson. It would’ve been easier there for him to play the pass to the No11. Pass on the responsibility to him as the Reds searched for a way back into the game.
He doesn’t do that though. Instead, he drives forward and forces Fulham players to engage with him.
He waits for Calvin Bassey before playing an inside pass into Diaz. At this point, it is a four-on-four situation. Fulham are stretched and the Liverpool No7 is able to poke a finish past Bernd Leno.
Had Bradley played the ball to Salah, the hosts could’ve set themselves up to defend a cross or react to the three-time Golden Boot winner cutting inside.
For the Harvey Elliott effort that hit the bar, it was Bradley crashing into the box to make it a four-on-four situation when Robertson had the ball on the left for the cross.
And the No84 was popping up centrally, creating space for Salah in wide areas with his off the ball movement.
While Alexander-Arnold was at his creative best with time in possession, due to his ability to pick a pass, Bradley’s creativity comes from his selfless running.
He’s unpredictable, and his cameo coincided with Liverpool looking a lot more dangerous.
Perhaps it is a case of out with the old - a ball playing right-back from deeper parts of the pitch - and in with the new - a ball-carrier akin to Andrew Robertson on the left but better in possession.
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