Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Aston Villa to win at 6/4 (Betway)
1pt Aston Villa win to nil at 7/2 (Betfair)
BuildABet @ 30/1
- Aston Villa to win
- Under 2.5 goals
- Morgan Rogers to score or assist
- Rogers 2+ shots on target
One of the many intriguing aspects of this season’s new Champions League format is that round-of-16 ties can now be repeats of the group stage. From a betting perspective that's incredibly helpful, both for comparing prices and comparing teams.
Back in November, Aston Villa went to Bruges top of the table having won their opening three fixtures. It would turn out to be a fast start good enough to help them progress to this point of the competition without the need of the additional play-off round.
Club Brugge, meanwhile, should consider a guard of honour for Tyrone Mings should he be named in the Villa starting XI on Tuesday evening.
Club Brugge are awarded a penalty after Tyrone Mings picks the ball up inside his own area 😳
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) November 6, 2024
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/wpAqjMW8pn
His brain failure and subsequent inexplicable handball to re-spot a goal kick not only proved decisive when these teams last met, but also in helping to edge the Belgian club through the league phase as the 24th of 24 qualifiers.
That 1-0 win was a freak result that surely won't be repeated.
What are the best bets?
In fairness to Brugge they did secure a stunning upset by winning both legs to knock out Atalanta 5-2 on aggregate in the play-off round.
At the prices though, I'm prepared to back normal service to be resumed.
ASTON VILLA were even money to win at Jan Breydel Stadium back in November and are 6/4 to do so this time around.
There are of course counter arguments for naysayers to point to, chiefly the poor away form of Unai Emery’s team.
It’s true that Villa have won only four of 13 Premier League away games this season and lost seven of their last nine, but they've fared much better in other competitions, winning three of their five matches on the road with the two defeats an aforementioned anomaly in Bruges and a narrow 1-0 loss to Monaco.
In the Champions League, Young Boys and RB Leipzig have both been beaten with three goals scored on each occasion.
Objectively, based on how they got to this stage, Brugge are one of, if not the weakest, teams left in the competition. And debatable as the UEFA club rankings often are, they also make some vague sense when the Belgian club, Feyenoord, PSV and Lille are the only remaining teams ranked outside its top 20.
European expert Emery
We also ought not downplay Emery's pedigree in Europe, with his record verging on the astonishing no matter the size of club he is in charge of.
His four UEFA Cup/Europa League wins at Sevilla and Villarreal get plenty of mention, but not so the consistency he's delivered around those four triumphs in spells at Valencia, PSG and Arsenal prior to his arrival at Villa Park.
He won't be as reckless as Atalanta's wonderfully attacking manager Gian Piero Gasperini so the possibility of Brugge picking off their opponents is much less, making the 7/2 about ASTON VILLA WIN TO NIL of interest.
The Belgian club were only able to muster seven goals in eight league phase matches, the sixth-fewest of all 36 teams.
Team news
Defender Bjorn Meier is definitely out but Brugge hope to have midfielder Raphael Onyedika back after he missed their weekend league game.
Aston Villa trio Pau Torres, Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley are injured while Andres Garcia and Donyell Malen are unavailable as they weren't added to Villa's Champions League squad, with Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford chosen instead.
Boubacar Kamara returned to the bench for the FA Cup win over Cardiff on Friday and while Tyrone Mings and Matty Cash were left out of that squad, all three could be involved here.
Predicted line-ups
Brugge: Mignolet; Seys, Ordonez, Mechele, De Cuyper; Jashari, Vetlesen; Talbi, Vanaken, Tzolis; Jutgla.
Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Bogarde, Digne; Kamara, Tielemans; McGinn, Asensio, Rogers; Watkins.
Match facts
- Aston Villa will meet Club Brugge for just the second time in European competition, with the first meeting between the two sides also coming in the UEFA Champions League this season, a 1-0 league phase win for Club Brugge at the Jan Breydel Stadium.
- Aston Villa have faced Belgian opposition five times before in European competition, winning just one of those encounters (D1 L3), a 1-0 victory vs Anderlecht in the European Cup in April 1982.
- Across European competition, Club Brugge have won just one of their last 16 games against English opposition (D3 L12), conceding 42 goals during that time. The Belgian side's only victory in that time did come against Aston Villa, however, 1-0 in this season's league phase.
- This will be Club Brugge's first knockout tie against English opposition in European competition since losing 6-1 on aggregate to Manchester United in the UEFA Europa League Last 32 in February 2020.
- Club Brugge won both legs against Atalanta in the play-off round (2-1 at home, 3-1 away), while only once previously have they won three consecutive games in the UEFA Champions League – in September/October 2022 under Carl Hoefkens (3).
- Aston Villa will be the fourth different team Unai Emery has managed in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, following Valencia, Paris SG and Villarreal. Only three managers have ever done so in charge of more than four: Carlo Ancelotti (6), José Mourinho (6) and Claudio Ranieri (5).
- No team have scored more goals from outside the box than Aston Villa (5) in the UEFA Champions League this season. Of sides to score 10+ goals in a campaign, their percentage scored from outside the box (38% - 5/13) is the highest in a single edition since Villarreal in 2008-09 (38% - 5/13).
- Among players remaining in the 2024-25 edition, Aston Villa’s Emiliano Martínez has prevented more goals than any other goalkeeper in the UEFA Champions League this season (+4.4 – six conceded from 10.4 xG on target faced). Indeed, the Argentinean has only been beaten with six of the 39 shots on target he’s faced in Europe this term (85% save percentage).
- Chemsdine Talbi has been directly involved in three goals in his last two UEFA Champions League appearances for Club Brugge (two goals, one assist). No Belgian teenager has ever netted three goals in a single edition of the competition (Talbi on two in 2024-25).
- Aston Villa’s Youri Tielemans is one of only three midfielders to have made 50+ line-breaking passes while under high-intensity pressure in the UEFA Champions League this season (53), along with Angelo Stiller (58) and Joshua Kimmich (54).
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (3/5/25)
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