After backing a 28/1 winner among others at the weekend, Tom Carnduff has found two best bets for Manchester City's trip to Club Brugge.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Jack Hendry to have 2+ tackles at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 11.5 corners at 12/5 (bet365, Unibet)
Defeat to PSG in their last Champions League encounter left Manchester City with an uphill task to finish top of Group A. They head to Belgium in third after two games - one point behind Tuesday's opponents Club Brugge.
That loss in France halted a good run of results for Pep Guardiola's side but they bounced back with a draw at Liverpool followed by a routine win against Burnley. City need to be careful though, Brugge held PSG here and also beat Leipzig away.
This is the side favoured to win the Champions League though and they sit at a significant 2/7 for three vital points here. That should be the case but they do need to avoid the trap that the two others have already fallen into.
Kick-off time: 17:45 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Club Brugge 9/1 | Draw 9/2 | Manchester City 2/7
As is usually the case with games involving Manchester City, you'll struggle for value in the outright market. A £10 stake on them to win returns £12.86 while you won't break even money on the -1 handicap. Given Brugge's previous results in this competition, is that worth the risk?
Instead, there are two avenues worth exploring in this contest. Both present good prices and look achievable based on season averages so far. The first of which is continuing on a profitable route in tackles and looking at the home side to play their part.
If you want an indication of the number of tackles expected, the hosts are even money to have 16 or more. However, for this selection, we only require a couple by taking the 11/8 on JACK HENDRY TO HAVE 2+ TACKLES.
Here's an interesting fact that gives hope to this selection. Manchester City have played 11 games in all competitions this season - an opposition centre-back has registered at least two tackles in ten of those games.
Four of them have seen two centre-backs register two or more while six of them have seen one defender have at least two and one have one. It shows City's dominance in these games - it also shows how a false nine may help in this area.
So, why Hendry? There is an element of a value play here when we compare him to other centre-back options. Stanley Nsoki averages 1.9 tackles per game in the Belgian league - 1.5 in the Champions League - but is a much shorter 8/11 for two.
Hendry's average has been 1.5 in the league with two coming in their home draw with PSG and one against Leipzig. In fact, in 12 outings for Brugge this season, Hendry has registered at least a tackle in 75% of them.
Playing to the averages also brings up great value in the corners market. We have two high corner count teams meeting here and it should hopefully mean the count goes well beyond double figures.
Club Brugge have played seven games at home this season and taken, on average, 8.4 corners in each. It's also worth noting that six came when they won the corner count against PSG.
For City, their away average is even higher. They regularly take more corners than the opposition and it's led to them posting 8.8 per game in six away outings - if we include the Community Shield at Wembley too.
At a best price of 12/5, it's worth backing OVER 11.5 CORNERS across the 90 minutes. If both teams can live up to usual averages it should go way beyond this figure.
Going for a figure of 12 always seems like a big ask in the corner count but City's away games more often than not go above it - largely due to their input. In Brugge, they face a side who should also play their part and I'd expect this one to be a much shorter price.
Club Brugge v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Jack Hendry to have 2+ tackles at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Over 11.5 corners at 12/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Club Brugge 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1215 BST (18/10/21)
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