Manchester City will be looking to return to the top of the Premier League with victory. Tom Carnduff has three best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Bernardo Silva to score anytime at 12/5
1pt Bernardo Silva 2+ Shots On Target at 11/2
1pt Wilfred Ndidi to be shown a card at 3/1
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Manchester City v Leicester (Etihad Stadium, 2000 BST, Sky Sports Main Event)
Leicester may have beaten City when the two met at the King Power Stadium in December, but it should be a different story as the hosts looks to regain top spot in the Premier League.
Liverpool kept the pressure on with victory over Newcastle on Saturday night. It came in controversial circumstances, though, with Fabinho earning a free-kick despite receiving little contact - the Reds scoring from the set-piece to grab all three points.
The title is in the hands of City, though, as two wins will be enough to see them retain the trophy. They travel to Brighton on final day, while Liverpool host Wolves.
Given their record, it should be a fairly comfortable evening on Monday. Crystal Palace are the only side to win in the league at the Etihad Stadium this season, with the other 17 games all ending in home joy.
That's why Pep Guardiola's side are a general 1/5 for another win here. Goals are expected too with over 3.5 in the match at an odds-on 19/20.
The Asian Handicap showing City at -2 indicates how the money is behind a convincing home win. Even if that has drifted from -2.5, it should still be victory with no shortage of goals for the hosts.
For a spot of value, it's worth exploring the goalscorer markets with Bernardo Silva an attractive price (12/5) for a goal anytime. He's had a direct involvement in 25 goals in all competitions this season, switching between the right wing and attacking midfield.
The majority of his goals this term have come when playing in a more central role. While he did net in the recent win over Manchester United playing on the right, goals have come against Arsenal, Cardiff, Bournemouth and Leicester when playing in midfield.
He's also scored in the Champions League and FA Cup. Given Kevin De Bruyne's absence through injury, it's likely Silva will play in midfield and Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane line up in the wide positions.
The really good news for the neutral is that Mike Dean is the referee. That usually means we can expect to see cards, alongside the standard entertainment that's often associated with him.
The price that catches the eye is the 3/1 for Wilfred Ndidi to be shown a card.
Ndidi has eight yellows on his tally already this season, which includes one last time out in the 3-0 victory over Arsenal. We should expect to see a similar line-up to that game and that means he'll be in his usual defensive midfield role.
Leicester will have to be at the top of their game defensively, with a bit of luck on their side, if they are to somehow keep City out. That could also mean fouls and Ndidi has a track record of delivering on that score.
He leads the way for fouls in this Foxes side with a total of 44. He's committed twice as many fouls as that which he has conceded.
While he's had a positive season, cards are a common theme for Ndidi and it's not hard to envisage him getting another in such a high-pressure clash.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bets:
Opta facts
- Manchester City have won three of their last four Premier League meetings with Leicester, though they did lose the reverse fixture 1-2 back in December.
- Leicester are looking to complete the top-flight double over Manchester City for the first time since the 1986-87 campaign, while they’re also looking to do the double against the reigning top-flight champions for the first time since 1985-86 against Everton.
- Manchester City have won three of their last four Premier League home games against Leicester, having lost their first three such games against the Foxes.
- Manchester City have won each of their last 12 Premier League games – it’s the fifth run of a team winning 12+ games in a row in the competition’s history, with Man City the only side to have done so twice.
- Leicester have never won away from home on a Monday in the Premier League, drawing three and losing eight of their 11 such matches.
- Man City haven’t lost their last home league game of the season since 2012-13 (2-3 vs Norwich), winning four and drawing one since.
- Man City have won eight of their last 10 Premier League home games in May (D2), scoring 29 goals and conceding just five in that run.
- Pep Guardiola has lost two Premier League games against Leicester as Man City boss – only against Chelsea (3) has the Spaniard lost more in the competition.
- Sergio Aguero has scored 15 Premier League home goals for Man City this season – only in 2011-12 (16) has he scored more at the Etihad in a single campaign in the competition.
- Since his Premier League debut in 2014-15, Jamie Vardy has scored more goals against ‘big six’ opponents than any other player in the competition (31).
Odds correct at 1100 BST (06/05/19)
