A return to the Football League is on the line when Chesterfield face Notts County in Saturday's National League promotion final at Wembley. Michael Beardmore has two best bets.
Football betting tips: National League promotion final
1pt Draw (after 90 mins) at 11/4 (Betway)
1pt Ryan Colclough anytime scorer at 5/1 (bet365)
Is the National League no longer the graveyard it once was for fallen Football League clubs?
The likes of Scunthorpe, Yeovil, York and Torquay might not agree but it seems for every EFL club that has struggled after dropping into non-league, there’s another that has adapted quite well.
In recent years, Hartlepool, Grimsby, Tranmere and Leyton Orient are among those who have rebounded relatively quickly.
And on Saturday, one of Chesterfield and Notts County, relegated in 2018 and 2019 respectively, will join them as the East Midlands rivals face off in a winner-takes-all promotion final at Wembley.
Kick-off time: 15:30, Saturday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Chesterfield 9/4 | Draw 13/5 | Notts County 19/20
If their respective semi-finals are anything to go by, neutrals are in for a treat.
County came from 2-0 down to beat Boreham Wood 3-2 with an equaliser six minutes into injury time and a 120th-minute winner while Chesterfield conceded a leveller to 10-man Bromley on 90+9 only to prevail 3-2 as both semis went to extra time.
The Spireites finished third in the table but a whopping 23 points behind second-placed County and that is reflected in the prices with the Magpies odds-on and Chesterfield as big as 3/1.
Their two regular-season meetings resulted in a 2-1 Notts away win and a 2-2 draw at Meadow Lane and, given the importance of the occasion, I can see this being similarly close.
You can get cute and split stakes at longer odds on either side to win in extra time or on penalties – and I have no issue with that – but when 11/4 is available on a draw after 90 minutes, we’ll just keep it simple.
Both semis ended level after regulation, both head-to-head meetings were close this season and both of the past two National League promotion finals have gone to extra time too, making the DRAW a solid play at the price on offer.
The encounter does scream goals, considering there were eight in normal in time in the semis while County’s matches this season average 3.46 per game and Chesterfield’s 2.9. However, prices in overs and BTTS markets are short as a result.
Instead, this should be a game where the scorer markets offer value – albeit I’m avoiding County as 75 of their crazily-high 117 goals have been shared around three players: Macaulay Langstaff (42), Ruben Rodrigues (18) and Cedwyn Scott (15), who are all prohibitively priced in first or anytime scorer markets.
County’s defence has been found wanting against the better sides this season, keeping just three clean sheets in 15 meetings with fellow top-eight teams and we should expect the Spireites to score.
The man that stands out price-wise is RYAN COLCLOUGH, a forward who has spent much of his career in Sky Bet League One with Crewe, MK Dons and Wigan, but dropped into non-league after a disappointing spell at Scunthorpe.
He rediscovered his mojo at Altrincham, enough to persuade Chesterfield to snap him up in January and, after taking a few weeks to get acquainted with his new environment, he’s repaid them with seven goals in his past 15 games.
Those figures make the 5/1 available on him with bet365 TO SCORE ANYTIME incredibly attractive.
Chesterfield v Notts County score prediction and best bets
- Draw (after 90 mins) at 11/4 (Betway)
- Ryan Colclough anytime scorer at 5/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Chesterfield 1-1 Notts County (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct 1725 BST (11/05/23)
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