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Chelsea vs Tottenham betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Cole Palmer to score anytime at 8/5 (Unibet)
1pt Both teams to score 2+ goals at 17/10 (BetVictor, Hills)
BuildABet @ 25/1
- Chelsea to score 2+ goals
- Tottenham to score 2+ goals
- Cole Palmer to score a brace
- James Maddison to score anytime
Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Thursday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 23/20 | Draw 3/1 | Away 19/10
As well as Europa League and Europa Conference League matches taking place on Thursday night, we have what should be an enthralling Premier League tie at Stamford Bridge, as Chelsea take on Tottenham.
Both have plenty to play for in terms of league finish, but more importantly there is pride at play, and after the full-blooded affair in the first meeting which saw eight yellows and two reds, goals and cards should be on the menu.
Spurs do probably need to win out if they are to finish fourth, while Chelsea are still well in the hunt for sixth spot which would bring European football.
What are the best bets?
I'd be shocked if we don't see a high-scoring game here. We have two of the chief protagonists this season when it comes to goals going head to head, as both sides play in an all-out-attack manner which leaves them extremely vulnerable defensively.
Over 3.5 goals is as short as 4/5 here, with the Asian line set at Over 3.75, and it's very easy to understand why. Chelsea's last 10 matches in all competitions have averaged 4.6 goals per game - that includes a 1-0 in the FA Cup semi-final - while Spurs' last 10 have seen 3.5 goals per game.
Overall this season, Chelsea's league games have seen an average of 3.7 goals and 3.74 xG per game, with Spurs' at 3.6 goals and 3.67 xG per game.
The over line does look value but I want to get creative here given this is a big match for both sides, with both needing to win. Spurs need to put the pressure on Aston Villa for fourth spot, while Chelsea are still in with a chance of European qualification themselves.
So, I think backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 2+ GOALS is a creative way to boost the price of the over, with it available at 17/10.
Across Chelsea's last seven home games in all competitions, this bet has landed six times. That run saw Wolves, Leeds, Newcastle, Leicester, Burnley and Manchester United all find the net multiple times at Stamford Bridge.
As for Spurs, this bet has landed in seven of their 16 away league games this season, with Ange Postecoglou's side scoring multiple times on the road in 11 of those contests. Spurs underlying process on their travels is concerning, and is probably the reason they will miss out on the top four, it but does highlight their open and goal laden nature, averaging 1.56 xGF and 1.92 xGA per game.
With goals expected, we have to see if there is any value in the goalscorer markets, and while it may be the obvious play, COLE PALMER's 8/5 price TO SCORE ANYTIME looks huge given the season he's having.
With 20 goals this season, averaging 0.63 xG per 90 and the goal expectancy incredibly high for this match, I expected to see odds closer to even money. Some firms do go as short as 8/11 for him to find the net here.
Across his last nine home starts in all competitions he has scored 15 goals, with this bet landing in eight of those contests. In that span he has averaged 1.08 xG per 90, which is utterly insane.
Granted his goals and xG numbers are bolstered by penalties, but the fact he is the penalty taker at Chelsea is a huge plus for this bet.
Team news
Thiago Silva picked up an injury at the weekend, joining Chelsea's long list of absentees. Reece James and Malo Gusto both remain out, meaning either Trevoh Chalobah will continue at right back or Alfie Gilchrist will come in. Ben Chilwell is still out so Marc Cucurella will continue at left back.
Enzo Fernandez and Raheem Sterling are also unavailable, while Christopher Nkunku and Levi Colwill could feature if they pass late fitness tests.
As for Spurs, Timo Werner will miss this game against his former employers after picking up an injury in the north London derby, with Destiny Udogie also out for this. Oliver Skipp is back though and should make the squad.
Ange Postecoglou could make some changes in midfield with both Pape Sarr and Yves Bissouma coming in after starting on the bench at the weekend.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Petrovic; Chalobah, Disasi, Badiashile, Cucurella; Caicedo, Gallagher; Madueke, Palmer, Mudryk; Jackson.
Tottenham: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Davies; Sarr, Bissouma; Kulusevski, Maddison, Johnson; Son.
Match facts
- Chelsea have lost just one of their last 33 home league games against Tottenham, going down 3-1 in April 2018 when Spurs were managed by Mauricio Pochettino.
- Only against Manchester United (39) have Tottenham lost more Premier League games than they have against Chelsea (34).
- Chelsea have done the Premier League double nine times against Tottenham, only doing so more against Manchester City (10). Meanwhile, Spurs have only lost twice in the same season more often against Manchester United (10) than they have against the Blues.
- After a run of just one win in 14 Premier League home games between March and November last year (D7 L6), Chelsea have now won seven of their last nine at Stamford Bridge (D1 L1). They’ve scored 29 goals in their last 10 home league games, as many as they had in their previous 27.
- Tottenham have lost two of their last three Premier League away games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 14 (W7 D5). They’ve failed to score in both defeats, having only failed to score in two of their previous 34 away league matches.
- Chelsea have conceded 59 Premier League goals this season, their most in a single campaign in the competition. They last conceded 60+ in 1991-92 (60), and last did so in a 38-game campaign in 1990-91 (69).
- Tottenham have lost 4-0 against Newcastle and 3-2 against Arsenal in their last two Premier League games. They’ve not lost three in a row since November 2023, while they’ve not done so while conceding 3+ goals each time since September 2021 – both runs included defeat to Chelsea.
- Chelsea boss Mauricio Pochettino could become the first manager to complete a Premier League double over Spurs having previously managed them in the competition.
- Cole Palmer has scored in each of his last seven Premier League home games, netting 13 goals in total in this run – it’s the longest scoring streak by a Chelsea player at Stamford Bridge in the competition’s history.
- Chelsea’s Cole Palmer has scored a hat-trick in his last two Premier League home games, netting three against Manchester United and four against Everton. The only player in the competition’s history to score 3+ goals in three consecutive home games is Erling Haaland last season
Odds correct at 1320 BST (30/04/24)
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