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Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Penalty in the match at 12/5 (bet365)
If you have a spare hour or two, search up the full match of the 1970 FA Cup final replay between Chelsea and Leeds online.
Even by the standards of the era, the brutality on show is jaw-dropping - and when David Elleray "re-refereed" the game in the late 1990s, he said he would have issued six red cards and 20 yellows.
The two clubs involved have had a burning dislike for each other ever since - although the rivalry might even pre-date that meeting, somewhat epitomising the north-south divide back then that is, arguably, still prevalent even now.
Not that the stars on show on Wednesday night will necessarily know too much about that, of course, in the cosmopolitan modern game but the atmosphere at Stamford Bridge will likely inform them this is not just a run-of-the-mill cup tie.
What are the best bets?
It's tough to get on board with the hosts here given the short prices being offered. Physically and mentally, they cannot be anywhere near 100% after Sunday's Carabao Cup extra-time heartache against Liverpool.
Yes, they might be motivated to respond to Gary Neville's "billion-pound bottlejobs" insult but they have been ridiculously inconsistent all season and face a Leeds side absolutely flying under Daniel Farke, albeit a division below of course.
As is often the case with cup games nowadays, it is also tough to commit to a player bet - Chelsea's short turnaround and Leeds' promotion priorities could see changes made or, conversely, both managers could go strong.
Instead, I've dug deep to find a stats bet I really like the look of - namely A PENALTY TO BE TAKEN IN THE MATCH (in 90 minutes, of course) at a very generous price of 12/5 with bet365.
Chelsea have been absolute spot-kick magnets at both ends of the pitch this season, earning eight penalties in the Premier League and conceding five - that's 13 in 25 matches, an average of one every other game.
Leeds, meanwhile, have won seven penalties in the Championship this term, the second highest figure behind only Leicester.
Both sides boast deep reserves of nippy, tricky attackers whomever is selected and, with the Premier League team at home, VAR is also a factor amid a potentially febrile atmosphere. It all makes 12/5 look big - the price is almost half that elsewhere.
BuildABet @50/1
- Leeds to win the tie
- Ampadu 1+ shots on target
- Ampadu 2+ fouls
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
There's certainly value in backing the upset here, given the pressure and fatigue that Chelsea will be feeling. It's a free hit for the visitors, who arrive in scintillating form, having won 11 of their past 12 in all competitions.
Leeds' line-up is by no means certain but it would be a surprise if Ethan Ampadu was not given the chance to prove a point against the club where he spent six years but made just one Premier League appearance in that time.
The utility man, used as either as a centre-back or defensive midfielder, is a big set-piece threat, registering 24 shots in 34 league games. He's also committed at least one foul in all but seven of his 34 matches this term.
Team news
Reece James, Wesley Fofana, Romeo Lavia, Carney Chukwuemeka, Lesley Ugochukwu and Benoit Badiashile are all out for the hosts, while Thiago Silva (groin) and Marc Cucurella (ankle) are close to returns but may not be risked.
Christopher Nkunku came off the bench at Wembley and is in contention to start, with Noni Madueke and Mykhailo Mudryk other options for Mauricio Pochettino who could shuffle his pack and may give youngster Alfie Gilchrist another cup start.
Blues goalkeeper Robert Sanchez is fit again and could replace Djordje Petrovic between the sticks.
Stuart Dallas (hip), Sam Byram and Pascal Struijk are out for Leeds, who could hand Patrick Bamford a start against his former club after the striker came off the bench to score in the 3-1 win over Championship leaders Leicester on Friday.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Gilchrist, Chalobah, Chilwell; Fernandez, Gallagher; Madueke, Nkunku, Mudryk; Jackson
Leeds: Meslier; Roberts, Rodon, Ampadu, Gray; Kamara, Gruev; Gnonto, Rutter, Summerville; Bamford
Odds correct 1215 GMT (27/02/24)
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