Football betting tips: FA Cup
1.5pts Aston Villa over 4.5 corners at 5/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pts Boubacar Kamara to be first player carded at 16/1 (BetVictor)
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
Home 11/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 23/10
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After coming through third-round tests against Sky Bet Championship opposition, Chelsea and Aston Villa would have fancied their chances of going deep into this year's FA Cup but one of them will definitely have those hopes dashed on Friday night.
In guiding Chelsea to the Carabao Cup final, Mauricio Pochettino has spoken of his hunger to win a first trophy in English football while cup specialist Unai Emery has gone on record about his desire to end Villa's rotten recent run in the knockouts.
Those comments, and the relatively strong line-ups each manager put out in dispatching Preston and Middlesbrough respectively in the previous round, suggest both sides will be taking this fourth-round tie at Stamford Bridge very seriously.
Chelsea go into the game on their best run of form under Pochettino after five wins in six since Christmas while Villa's results dipped over the festive period but they have had 12 days off to refresh and reset ahead of their trip to London.
What are the best bets?
Of the two sides, Chelsea appear in better nick recently but that could be cancelled out by the fact they played as recently as Tuesday night while Villa have had the best part of a fortnight off to recharge the batteries.
I'll swerve the outrights and focus primary attention on the corners market, somewhere the visitors have been strong all season, particularly away from home.
No side in the Premier League has earned more flag-kicks on the road than Villa this season - they are tied with Manchester City on 77, averaging more than seven per away game.
There's little reason to expect that pattern to differ given this is a cup game, especially as Villa earned a whopping 12 corners in their third-round win at Middlesbrough.
So, odds-against prices of 5/4 on them to simply amass OVER 4.5 CORNERS at Stamford Bridge have to be snapped up.
These two sides are also among the most ill-disciplined in the top flight, Chelsea topping the 'unfair play' standings with 66 yellow cards and three reds this season, while Villa sit third on 59 bookings and one sending-off.
There were very few card markets available at time of writing this preview, even though the game was only just over 24 hours away, but this is certainly an avenue worth exploring once more prices appear.
In the meantime, I'm going to settle for a small play at inviting odds of 16/1 for Aston Villa midfielder BOUBACAR KAMARA to be the FIRST PLAYER CARDED.
You can get around 3/1 for a card anytime on a player who tops the Villa charts for bookings, as well as tackles and fouls per game - and he has also incurred their only red card this campaign, in the 2-1 win at Brentford.
But given that three of his six bookings have been the first yellow shown in those particular matches, I'm going to chance my arm at the higher price on his tendency to get stuck in early doors.
BuildABet @ 28/1
- Chelsea to win
- Enzo Fernandez to score anytime
- Aston Villa 6+ corners
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
If we add an extra Villa corner - six still being below their lofty average of seven per away game, remember - to a Chelsea win and an Enzo Fernandez goal, we can construct a tasty 28/1 BuildABet treble.
While the outcome is a tight call, form firmly favours the hosts and Fernandez has had his shooting boots on recently, scoring four times in his past 10 games - and all four have come at Stamford Bridge.
Team news
Chelsea will remain without Christopher Nkunku, Reece James, Romeo Lavia, Marc Cucurella, Wesley Fofana and goalkeeper Robert Sanchez through a variety of ailments while Nicolas Jackson is away at the Africa Cup of Nations.
The Blues are also sweating on the fitness of full-back Malo Gusto who missed the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg thrashing of Middlesbrough with a slight muscle issue.
Villa are without long-term injury victims Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings but hope their recent break has given Pau Torres and Jacob Ramsey time to have recovered from ankle and thigh issues respectively. Lucas Digne is likely to remain out though.
Like their hosts, the Villans have one player away on Afcon duty, Burkina Faso's Bertrand Traore.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Petrovic; Disasi, Badiashile, Colwill, Chilwell; Caicedo, Fernandez; Madueke, Gallagher, Palmer; Broja
Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Moreno; Bailey, Luiz, Kamara, McGinn; Diaby, Watkins
Odds correct 1300 GMT (25/01/24)
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