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Chelsea vs Arsenal betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Super Sunday
2pts Arsenal to win at 6/4 (Betfair, Betfred, Betway)
1pt William Saliba 1+ total shots at 14/5 (Betway)
0.5pt Saliba to score anytime at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Gabriel to score anytime at 11/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 26/1
- Arsenal to win
- Saliba 1+ total shots
- Gabriel 2+ total shots
It's a neat paradox that Chelsea and Arsenal head into this London derby both in identical positions in the league table, but worlds apart otherwise, encapsulated by the Blues' 8-0 win over Armenian minnows Noah in the Conference League coming 24 hours on from the Gunners' defeat at Inter Milan in the Champions League.
Both results also only served to exacerbate the modern-day lust for tiresome hot takes.
Arsenal are certainly in a bad patch, winning just two of their past six matches, but the idea they have become some kind of overnight crisis club is as overhyped as Chelsea's apparent revival under Enzo Maresca.
While deserving of praise, Maresca has certainly benefited from a superficial feel-good factor courtesy of weekly Thursday night walkovers.
In the games that really matter, Chelsea have often been found wanting. Under Mikel Arteta, when it counts, Arsenal usually step up.
What are the best bets?
Chelsea's five most recent matches away from UEFA's third-rate shambles of a competition have seen them held by 10-man Nottingham Forest, beaten by Liverpool, edge and then lose to Newcastle and fail to win a forgettable contest at Old Trafford against a woeful Manchester United.
And Arsenal's bad run has much-warranted caveats.
William Saliba's first-half red card proved costly at Bournemouth. Though injury-ridden, the Gunners were fantastic at home to Liverpool and came within minutes of victory. Though poor after conceding the first goal at Newcastle last weekend, that performance bled into a false narrative in the aftermath of defeat at the San Siro.
Arsenal had 13 shots, 11 from inside the box, in the second half and allowed Inter only one attempt on goal; they simply missed too many good chances.
They were also incredibly unfortunate, both to fall behind in the first place after a controversial handball decision, and not to be awarded a penalty themselves when Mikel Merino was quite literally punched in the face by opposition goalkeeper Yann Sommer.
Hakan Calhanoglu's decisive penalty, by the way, was the only shot on target Arsenal conceded all game.
Hakan Calhanoglu gives Inter Milan the lead from the spot 🎯
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) November 6, 2024
Arsenal might feel hard done by after the penalty was awarded for handball 🤚
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/kzA7Mm58sL
Take the 6/4 about ARSENAL TO WIN at Stamford Bridge, a price that is an overreaction to both theirs and Chelsea's recent results.
It's larger than they were to win the north London derby in September without both Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard. Rice could return from a broken toe on Sunday and Odegaard came off the bench in Milan to make his first appearance since August.
Hold firm and back the better team.
Centre-back to strike?
Having taken a fair amount of inspiration from Arsenal's win at Tottenham, I'll again back both centre-backs TO SCORE ANYTIME.
GABRIEL and WILLIAM SALIBA were two of the players who came very close to equalising against Inter, missing an excellent opportunity each and having five attempts between them in the match.
- CLICK HERE to back Gabriel to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Saliba to score anytime with Sky Bet
Arsenal's effectiveness from set-pieces is well-documented, scoring 28 goals from such situations since the start of last season - far superior to any other Premier League team. Gabriel (11/1) has already scored twice in 10 league games this season, away at Tottenham and Manchester City.
While Saliba is yet to find the net, the signs he showed in midweek alongside his hugely generous 20/1 price keeps him in the staking plan. I'm also willing to take SALIBA 1+ TOTAL SHOTS.
The 14/5 available is standout, especially considering Gabriel is odds-on to do the same.
Team news
After changing the entire team for their Conference League game against Noah, and with no new injury concerns, Enzo Maresca is likely to revert to much of the XI who faced Manchester United last weekend.
Marc Cucurella's half-time introduction at Old Trafford and lack of involvement in midweek suggests he will start on Sunday.
Arsenal hope to have Declan Rice back after he missed the trip to Inter Milan with a broken toe. Martin Odegaard could return after he came off the bench at the San Siro; former Chelsea forward Kai Havertz after suffering a head clash late in that match.
Raheem Sterling is unavailable as he cannot face his parent club. Riccardo Calafiori, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Kieran Tierney are all out.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Sanchez; James, Fofana, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Lavia; Madueke, Palmer, Neto; Jackson.
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli.
Match facts
- Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (D2 L6), a 2-0 away win in August 2021.
- Arsenal have won three of their last four Premier League away games against Chelsea (D1), as many as they had in their previous 20 visits to Stamford Bridge (D7 L10).
- Arsenal have won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3. They’ve won three of these six games by 5+ goals, having won just one of their first 295 such games by such a margin.
- Chelsea have conceded at least once in each of their last six Premier League home games, last having a longer such run between December 2015 and August 2016 (13). With five of those games coming in 2024-25, it’s their longest run without a home clean sheet from the start of a league campaign since 2011-12 (6).
- Arsenal have lost 2-0 to Bournemouth and 1-0 to Newcastle in their last two Premier League away games. They last lost three in a row on the road in December 2021, while they last did so without scoring in August 1994.
- Arsenal have lost just one of their last 26 Premier League games on the weekend immediately following a European fixture (W19 D6), going down 2-0 at home to Aston Villa in April. When facing Chelsea in such a match, they’ve lost five of their last seven, though the two exceptions have been in the last two meetings (0-0 in September 2017, 1-0 in November 2022).
- Of all managers to face Chelsea at least 10 times in the Premier League, only Kenny Dalglish (77%) has a higher win rate against the Blues than Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta (60% - W6 D2 L2).
- No player has been involved in more Premier League goals this season than Chelsea’s Cole Palmer (7 goals, 5 assists), while he’s also created the most chances from open play this term (24). His first ever Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge came in this exact fixture last season – since then (and including that goal) he’s scored more home goals than any other player (21).
- Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (7). He’s also either scored (1) or assisted (2) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Agüero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.
- Since the start of last season, Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, 2 assists), with his 12 involvements coming in his last nine such appearances.
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (07/11/24)
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