Liam Kelly looks at the return of Premier League football after the international break, previewing West Brom's trip to face Chelsea.
Premier League betting tips: Chelsea v West Brom
1pt Chelsea -2 at 2/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Chelsea return to action in pole position in the race for Champions League qualification, buoyed by their incredible form since Thomas Tuchel took over from Frank Lampard.
The Blues are unbeaten under the German, showing an astounding level of control during the 14-game span.
Chelsea have completely dominated most of their matches under Tuchel, holding a high amount of possession and territory. In turn, they’ve nullified the opposition.
Incredibly, Chelsea have conceded just two goals in the 10 Premier League fixtures since Tuchel’s arrival - a Takumi Minamino strike and an Antonio Rudiger own goal - allowing an average of 6.4 shots totaling 0.51 xG per game in those matches.
What is Expected Goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams create and concede chances
Behind this exceptional defensive solidity, I think we can be a little bolder in the handicap markets, with CHELSEA -2 looking especially interesting at the prices.
Chelsea have yet to win by more than two goals under Tuchel in the EPL, but they have created 15.2 xG despite scoring 11 goals. Facing a West Brom team that has allowed the most goals and xG in the Premier League this season represents a good opportunity for a breakout game.
West Brom will offer little threat in attack, too. They’ve created chances equating to just 0.91 xGF per game on average this season.
That number has improved slightly since the appointment of Sam Allardyce, but it's unlikely that the Baggies will trouble such a good defensive side. As a result, this should be a comfortable victory for the Champions League-chasing Blues.
Chelsea v West Brom best bets and score prediction
- Chelsea -2 at 2/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Score prediction: Chelsea 4-0 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1100 BST (01/04/21)
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