Chelsea have lost two matches in a week, so will be looking to bounce back at home to Southampton. Jake Osgathorpe is wary of backing the hosts.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 5/6 (BetVictor)
Chelsea have had a difficult week, losing back-to-back games by a 1-0 scoreline, with the first of those an ego-bruising loss at home to Manchester City in which they were utterly dominated on their home turf.
Since the international break, the Blues haven't looked all that fluid in attack, and while I think they will win this game, that is enough of a concern for me to avoid any bet with the hosts in it, such as Chelsea to win to nil.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Chelsea 4/11 | Draw 15/4 | Southampton 15/2
In four games since the break, Chelsea have managed chances equating to 1.13 xGF against Aston Villa, 0.78 against Zenit, 2.49 against Tottenham, 0.32 against Man City and 1.47 at Juventus. That averages out to just 1.24 xGF per game.
Over the course of the league season so far - with an admittedly difficult schedule compared to their rivals - the Blues have averaged 1.50 xGF per game and generated just eight non-penalty big chances (0.35 xG+) in six games.
That kind of attacking process is enough for me to swerve the usual bets involving Chelsea on this occasion (Chelsea win and Under 3.5 Goals or win to nil), until I see more concrete and consistent attacking figures.
Another reason for that is Southampton's resurgent defence. After allowing over 2.0 xGA in both of their first two games, Saints have tightened things up, allowing an average of 1.17 xGA per game - including limiting Man City to 1.47 xGA and West Ham to 0.74, two of the best four attacking teams in the league so far this season.
However, while they are allowing fewer chances, they are also creating fewer as a result.
Ralph Hasenhuttl's side have generated over 1.0 xGF only once in six game this season, and that came at a Newcastle team who rank as the second worst defensive team through the opening throws of the campaign.
Southampton have created just four non-penalty big chances (0.35 xG+) this season - three of those came at St James' Park.
So we have two teams who are defending to a decent level currently, and two teams who's attacking processes are below par, so few goals can be expected here.
As mentioned earlier, I don't trust Chelsea's attack enough to encoporate them in a bet, especially with the way Southampton have improved defensively of late, so backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' looks a really sensible option.
By taking this bet, we get a winner if the game ends goalless - which Southampton managed at the Etihad not so long ago - or if either team wins to nil, so it covers a lot of bases in a game where defences will likely be on top of attacking units struggling for fluidity.
Chelsea v Southampton best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 5/6 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1610 BST (30/09/21)
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