Chelsea take on Sheffield United in the early FA Cup game on Sunday, and Jake Osgathorpe has his best bets.
Football betting tips: Chelsea v Sheffield United
2pts Chelsea win to nil at 10/11 (General)
1pt Mason Mount to score anytime at 23/10 (Betway)
Thomas Tuchel’s appointment has really helped Chelsea turn a corner, with the Blues now feared on the domestic and European stage such has been their improvement.
The way in which they dominated Atletico Madrid over two legs in the Champions League was a statement of intent, as their defence continues to excel.
Blues defence is elite
A lot has been made of the number of clean sheets Chelsea have managed since Tuchel arrived, and rightly so, with 11 in 13 games across all competitions.
Digging deeper into the underlying numbers, and it is quite clear that Tuchel’s brand of controlled football is making the Blues an elite force.
Since he took over Chelsea have played 10 league games and allowed an average of just 0.51 expected goals against (xGA) per game. Next best in that time has been Brighton (0.80).
As can be seen in the above graphic, Sheffield United’s defence has been the worst in the league over the same period.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Blades in disarray
Sheffield United are in complete disarray both on and off the pitch, with the decision to part ways with Chris Wilder baffling for many reasons, the main being that they don’t appear to have a succession plan.
Their performance at Leicester last weekend was the worst defensive display Infogol has on record from the Blades since the data started being collected (2014/15).
They allowed 4.43 xGA in that game, while it took them the same number of games (1) to concede five and lose by a three-goal margin without Wilder as it did in over 200 games under Wilder.
As a team, they look lost. And as a club, they look clueless as to what to do next.
With the season petering out and confidence seemingly at rock bottom, it is really hard to make a case for them in this game.
Where is the value?
Chelsea are rightly short favourites here, and they should progress, so I’m looking for the best way to get them onside in this one at a decent price.
We can back a CHELSEA WIN TO NIL at a shade of odds-on generally, and that looks extremely generous for a team who have kept so many clean sheets of late.
Their midweek exploits don’t trouble me, given the depth and quality of their squad, and I reckon they win this at a canter against a poor Blades side.
One player that catches the eye in the scorer market is MASON MOUNT TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He was suspended in midweek so didn’t play, increasing his chances of starting here. Recently Mount has been operating in behind the striker in one of two ‘number 10’ positions, getting scoring opportunities regularly.
His price of 23/10 to score anytime looks overpriced in a game where Chelsea could rack up a fair few goals.
Chelsea v Sheffield United best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Chelsea win to nil at 10/11 (General)
- 1pt Mason Mount to score anytime at 23/10 (Betway)
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (18/03/21)
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