Chelsea have a mountain to climb against Real Madrid in their second leg meeting - one that should play into the hands of the visitors.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Real Madrid to score 2+ goals at 5/4 (General)
0.5pt Real Madrid to score 4+ goals at 14/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
"Do you think 2-0 is a good result?", "Chelsea will take 2-0", "they've basically won the tie already" - ok, I made that last one up, but the narrative surrounding the first leg of this tie was just outright bizarre.
Chelsea - who have spent over £600m on players this season and broke the British transfer record less than three months ago - were treated like a Sky Bet League Two side turning up for a big FA Cup away day.
Real Madrid hardly put the effort in. They seemed to be cruising at 50% throughout. In truth, it was a game where they could and should have had the result secured already, although they remain in a commanding position for their trip to London.
Chelsea v Real Madrid (agg: 0-2)
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV Channel: BT Sport 1
Home 17/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/5
The Frank LLLampard era at Chelsea continued with their third consecutive loss at the weekend - Brighton deservedly winning after creating far more opportunities.
That follows the lacklustre performance at the Bernabeu and a defeat to Wolves. They're creating little and conceding plenty - a disastrous and dangerous mix against a team who have dismantled top level opponents already this season.
At an odds-against price, the appeal comes in backing REAL MADRID TO SCORE 2+ GOALS as they did last week.
This game seems suited to Real. Not only are they the better of the two teams anyway, but Chelsea need to attack in order to get back into the tie - that will allow the visitors plenty of opportunities on the counter.
They possess the ruthless nature required to rip teams apart. They smashed five past Liverpool at Anfield, put four past Barcelona at Camp Nou, and Carlo Ancelotti's side come into this one on the back of recent strong attacking displays.
Real have scored 12 goals from 15.18 xG across their last four La Liga and Champions League fixtures. Remarkably, they had 5.14 xG in their 2-0 win over Cadiz at the weekend.
So while they've been scoring plenty, the underlying metrics highlight that it should have been more. That includes the first leg of this tie where they had 2.68 xG for their two efforts.
Chelsea shipped 3.30 xGA against Brighton, taking their total to 5.98 xGA across the last two. To their credit, they're top of the xKTC (Expected Knows The Club) chart since Lampard's arrival, and isn't that more important than things like tactics or winning games?
And just in case the game gets crazy, as we saw when Real visited Anfield, I'm also willing to have a small stakes play on REAL TO SCORE 4+ GOALS.
You could argue Chelsea were fortunate to avoid this outcome against Brighton at the weekend, while Real could have achieved this if they were at full pace in the first leg.
They certainly have the attacking capabilities to score on multiple occasions, while the game state could well play into Chelsea being exposed at the back as they look for a way back in.
You could say that Frank is hoping his side are the Real deal! Haha no, but seriously, backing the AWAY SIDE to be among the GOALS is where the value lies here.
Chelsea v Real Madrid best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Real Madrid to score 2+ goals at 5/4 (General)
- 0.5pt Real Madrid to score 4+ goals at 14/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-4 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 40/1)
Odds correct at 1115 GMT (17/04/23)
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