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Chelsea v Norwich tips: Premier League preview and best bets
The early kick-off in the Premier League sees Chelsea welcome Norwich and Tom Carnduff has picked out two best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Thiago Silva to have 1+ total shots at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Pierre Lees-Melou to have 5+ tackles at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Norwich's return to the Premier League has been a horrible one. Back-to-back draws have given them their only two points of the campaign with just two goals scored in their opening eight matches. A trip to Chelsea - who have only conceded three - is far from ideal.
Daniel Farke's side are already a very short 1/6 for the drop and they find themselves as 16/1 outsiders for their visit to Stamford Bridge.
The data does show how they've been unlucky not to score more - those two goals have come from an xGF of 7.4 - but the fact they only registered 0.11 away at Manchester City looks to be a sign of things to come in Saturday's early kick-off.
A contest as one-sided in the outright market heavily influences prices elsewhere with anything pro-Chelsea remaining short odds. Even the hosts to win on the -1 handicap only provides a price of 4/7.
However, it doesn't mean that there isn't anything to go at and the shots market provides some interesting possibilities. The forward line is, as expected, fancied to be involved in the attacks with a number of players barely breaking even money for a high amount.
Mason Mount and Kai Havertz only go to odds-against when you hit five shots and injuries to Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner on Wednesday night means the uncertainty surrounding their involvement has also seen them absent from the stats markets.
However, Chelsea are a strong set-piece side and it's worth backing the 11/10 on THIAGO SILVA TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS. No side has scored more than the Blues from free-kicks and corners this season.
His Premier League involvement has been limited - starting just three games so far - but he did score from two shots when they beat Tottenham in mid-September. Silva's effort against Malmo in midweek also took his Champions League shots tally to four from two starts.
Chelsea should have plenty of opportunities to strike from corners with seven a regular marker for them at home. The centre-back averaged 0.6 shots per game in the Premier League last season - taking one more often than not - and this bet being total shots means it doesn't even have to be on target.
There are a number of contenders in this market and Jorginho was a name of interest. He rarely registers shots apart from penalties but if he's a goalscorer pick, it's worth taking his shot on target price instead. He's 7/5 for a goal yet 3/1 for a shot on target on Sky Bet - a much safer option at a much bigger price.
Scanning the other stats market also flags up the 7/2 for PIERRE LEES-MELOU TO HAVE 5+ TACKLES in this game. He's a regular when it comes to the tackle count and is establishing himself as a key part of this Norwich midfield.
Across seven Premier League appearances so far, Lees-Melou is averaging 3.3 tackles in each. Only four players in the entire league are seeing a higher total although he's played more games than Tottenham's Emerson Royal.
He's hit the five tackles marker twice already. An important indicator for this game is that one of those came away at Manchester City - highlighting he can still go big in this area against the very best.
In his last five Ligue 1 seasons - four at Nice and one at Dijon - Lees-Melou's tackles per game average never went below 2.3. It's not a surprise to see the 3.3 he is currently on.
Even with the potential slip-up of the early kick-off, Chelsea should win this one comfortably. They are a superior side and - even with key players missing up front - should have enough to win with a few goals.
That's too short of a price to explore though. Instead, the best bets come from backing SILVA and LEES-MELOU being involved.
Chelsea v Norwich best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Thiago Silva to have 1+ total shots at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Pierre Lees-Melou to have 5+ tackles at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (21/10/21)
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