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Chelsea v Liverpool tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Managerless Chelsea host Liverpool in Tuesday's main game, and Tom Carnduff has picked out three best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Virgil van Dijk to have 1+ fouls at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt Enzo Fernandez to have 2+ fouls at 16/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.75pt Virgil van Dijk to score anytime at 14/1 (Unibet)
Ah, Chelsea.
You spend big money bringing in your first choice head coach, back him up with even bigger money additions, only to sack him after seven months at the helm. A familiar story despite a change in ownership.
Graham Potter's departure leaves Bruno Saltor as the interim boss for the visit of Liverpool. Usually a tough fixture, but against a side who have struggled away from home.
The Blues could well have won this game with Potter in charge anyway. They hammered Villa for chances created but simply couldn't convert. Sunday night's decision to sack Potter may actually end up playing into the hands of the visitors.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Chelsea 29/20 | Draw 5/2 | Liverpool 7/4
While the underlying numbers painted a positive picture for Chelsea, questions remained about how well suited Potter actually was to the job. A fantastic coach but one whose top-level inexperience would be pointed to when things weren't going well.
This could well have been the case with certain players. Elite level operators who could switch off when fed up of a system that ultimately didn't produce results - regardless of what the advanced metrics say.
Jürgen Klopp is facing similar certain dilemmas, although we can be confident that his players will continue to battle until the very end. Away performances need to drastically improve.
They remain 13th in the away standings following Saturday's hammering by Manchester City. Just 12 points gained from a possible 42 on the road. That is one fewer than bottom club Southampton have managed.
So while they could capitalise on the uncertainty surrounding the home side, they've had issues when travelling and we can't expect a drastic upturn just because they're facing a managerless side.
Essentially, it's a long way of getting to saying that the outright market is providing little appeal, even with the prices available on the three outcomes. Instead, targeting individual prices delivers the best value.
The first of which is taking the 16/5 available on ENZO FERNANDEZ 2+ FOULS. This was a successful tip in the weekend preview of their game with Aston Villa.
I'm half stealing it from Jimmy, but the initial eye-catching price led me to investigate the stats further. In home games, it's certainly one that provides the most interest.
Fernandez has failed to register a foul in his three away Premier League games so far, but he's had at least one foul in three of five at home - returning 2+ in two of those.
It extends into the Champions League too, as the defensive midfielder registered two fouls in the home win over Dortmund. He was a regular in the foul count for Benfica, averaging 1.1 per league game prior to his January switch.
While we technically have a different head coach in charge now, Chelsea will still play the same way with the same system - there's only so much someone can do in such a short space of time.
Previous numbers remain relevant here for this reason, and Fernandez has a good track record when it comes to the fouls count. It's even more interesting in a game that should be competitive.
Anthony Taylor is also the referee, and his 20.25 fouls awarded per game average is the third-highest of any official to have taken charge of at least 20 top-flight contests this season.
With this in mind, I'm also happy to revisit a weekend tip and back VIRGIL VAN DIJK 1+ FOULS even if it didn't land at the Etihad.
His involvement was underlined by the fact he had four successful tackles for the second league game in a row. A player who never particularly excelled in this area being forced into playing a part.
The pattern flagged up in the weekend preview remains true in that van Dijk sees more fouls committed in away games than he does when playing at Anfield.
Add in that there is the physical frame of Kai Havertz, combined with the liveliness of Joao Felix and the potential pace of Mykhailo Mudryk and it's easy to see situations where he's drawn into a foul.
The defender's own form is a concern amongst that of the general team. Considering his last two league away games have combined for ten tackles or fouls, the near even money price available on a mistimed attempt is worth backing.
At the other end of the pitch, the 14s available on VAN DIJK TO SCORE ANYTIME looks tempting considering the set-piece mismatch.
Chelsea struggle at both ends when it comes to set-piece situations. Conveniently, so do Brighton, so it could be a weakness in the largely positive Potter way of operating.
Naturally, the more corners you take or concede contributes to this, but Liverpool have demonstrated a serious ability to capitalise when presented with these chances in recent years.
Chelsea's 10.39 xGA from set-pieces is the sixth-highest in the Premier League, while Liverpool's 10.08 xGF is the seventh-highest (both via Opta Analyst). It's particularly corners where Liverpool are decent.
It's no surprise that they are also good at defending them, but a price as big as this should always be considered when it comes to van Dijk - especially in a contest where they should hold the advantage in this area.
As mentioned above, the various factors make calling the result a difficult one. Chelsea's managerial situation coupled with Liverpool's away woes hardly make it an ideal situation for either.
Yet value can be found by delving into the other markets and backing FERNANDEZ and VAN DIJK to play their part.
Chelsea v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Virgil van Dijk to have 1+ fouls at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Enzo Fernandez to have 2+ fouls at 16/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 0.75pt Virgil van Dijk to score anytime at 14/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1345 BST (03/04/23)
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