Chelsea welcome Ligue 1 side Lille in their Champions League round of 16 encounter. Tom Carnduff has two best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Over 10.5 corners at 5/4 (Unibet)
1pt Benjamin Andre to be shown a card at 11/5 (General)
Chelsea left it late to secure all three points at Crystal Palace on Saturday. A 1-0 win in a game of limited chances but a fair result based on expected goals - Thomas Tuchel's side winning the xG scoreline 1.12 - 0.85.
One major concern from that game will be just how uninvolved Romelu Lukaku was. The Chelsea striker managing a ridiculously tiny seven touches of the ball in 97 minutes - one of those was from kick-off.
It's an indicator of the season endured by Chelsea. One that started with so much promise but has faded away into securing a top-four spot. The main focus will now be on repeating Champions League glory and this game gives them the potential to build up a first leg lead.
If you thought Chelsea were having a bad follow-up season, wait until you hear about Lille. The French champions of 2020/21 are miles away from defending their crown.
They're stuck in 11th - 23 points behind leaders PSG. The defence has been a problem and that's contributed largely to their underperformance. Lille have conceded 35 goals from a much smaller 24.5 xGA.
It's why - despite Chelsea's own issues - this is a tie they would have wanted. It's no surprise to predict a fairly comfortable home win given the fact that the odds are 2/7. The Blues have the 4th best home record in the Premier League this season.
One area that does provide value is corners considering the high number that these two sides usually see. At a best price of 5/4, and with evens available elsewhere, it's worth backing OVER 10.5 CORNERS.
In the Premier League, only Norwich see a high number of match corners (12.31) for games played at home than Chelsea (12.08). The key to that is that Chelsea take 7.67 of those - the third-highest home average in England's top-flight.
For Lille, they see an average of 10.69 per Ligue 1 away game with a solid split in 5.15 - 5.54. That means 46% of their away games see over 10.5. Chelsea are seeing 58% of their home league games go for 11 or more.
The Champions League usually brings some success in the cards market given the stricter approaches by the officials and Lille have been a fascinating case when it comes to discipline in Ligue 1.
They have received the most cards of any side in France's top-flight and yet they sit 15th for average fouls committed per game. The same applies to the Champions League - no side could match or better their 23 yellows gained from six matches yet they were 17th for fouls in the group stage.
At a best price of 11/5, we're taking BENJAMIN ANDRE TO BE SHOWN A CARD in this game. He's averaged 2.1 fouls per Ligue 1 game and 1.0 in the Champions League.
It means that across both competitions this season, he's been carded a total of nine times - averaging one every 3.11 games. It's just a part of his game - Andre has received at least nine cards in each of his last five campaigns.
Jesús Gil Manzano's appointment as referee should bring a few bookings. He's shown 4.43 cards per game this season with four in two of his three Champions League outings.
Chelsea v Lille best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 10.5 corners at 5/4 (Unibet)
- 1pt Benjamin Andre to be shown a card at 11/5 (General)
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Lille (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (21/02/22)
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