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Chelsea v Leeds tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Deposed Premier League leaders Chelsea host Leeds on Saturday looking to bounce back from defeat at West Ham. Michael Beardmore has the preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Over 8.5 Chelsea corners at 23/10 (Paddy Power/Betfair)
1pt Raphinha to be shown a card at 7/2 (General)
To say the wheels are coming off would be a major exaggeration but things have certainly not gone Chelsea’s way over the past weeks as they get set to welcome Leeds to Stamford Bridge.
They were deposed from the Premier League summit after being held by Manchester United and losing at West Ham, and finished second in their Champions League group due to a last-gasp Zenit equaliser. They have a raft of injuries to contend with too.
Ben Chilwell, N’Golo Kante, Jorginho and Mateo Kovacic are all sidelined for varying lengths of time – although the Blues’ squad should be strong enough to cope with their absences.
Leeds, meanwhile, could again be without star striker Patrick Bamford whose scoring comeback from injury against Brentford might be shortlived while England midfielder Kalvin Phillips has picked up a hamstring injury that will keep him out for weeks.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Chelsea 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Leeds 10/1
The Whites remain just six points clear of danger and will do well to extend that margin further, given they are without two of their best players. This has all the hallmarks of a backs-to-the-wall effort for the visitors.
If Chelsea score early, it could get ugly but Leeds have shown resilience at times, making the unders/overs market tricky to predict – even the 11/10 on Chelsea winning to nil is not without its risks, given they have shipped seven in their last three without Kante protecting the back-line.
I’m content, instead, given the dominance we expect Chelsea to enjoy in this match, to head to the corner flags, an area of the Stamford Bridge pitch Thomas Tuchel’s side have become very familiar with.
Chelsea’s corner count in their past three home games against Manchester United, Juventus and Burnley has been 15, 14 and 13. They also had 10 against Southampton in the Carabao Cup prior to those matches.
In their past two away games, they have registered eight and nine corners against West Ham and Zenit. They have been attacking relentlessly and I see no reason that will stop here.
That all makes the 23/10 on offer with Paddy Power and Betfair for OVER 8.5 CHELSEA CORNERS look far too large given their recent history and likely dominance. Given their recent corner count I also wouldn't put you off 11/2 with Sky Bet on 11+ flag-kicks for the Blues.
I also think it’s wise to dip into the card markets here given that Leeds have the worst disciplinary record in the top flight this season. In recent weeks alone they picked up five bookings against Brentford, five against Crystal Palace, three at Brighton, four at Spurs, four at Norwich.
An ‘over booking points’ tip was originally the plan but the designation of Mike Dean as referee to this game has made me think twice – everyone’s favourite harsh marker has been markedly lenient this term.
His card stats are near the bottom of the PL referee standings but he is still averaging three yellows per game – and given Leeds’ record we can assume they will pick up at least a couple in a game where they will surely make a lot of tackles.
The bookies expect so too with virtually the entire United team 10/3 or shorter to be carded which makes the 7/2 on RAPHINHA TO BE CARDED a real standout price with Paddy Power, Betfair and Unibet.
The Brazilian can sometimes fit the stereotype of a hot-headed South American and has four bookings already this season in 15 games, which is not far off his overall career ratio.
As short as 2/1 in the card markets elsewhere, 7/2 is a generous mark and a decent play in a game where skinny prices galore make the outright result and goalscorer markets very low on value.
Chelsea v Leeds score prediction and best bets
- Over 8.5 Chelsea corners at 23/10 (Paddy Power/Betfair)
- Raphinha to be shown a card at 7/2 (General)
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1430 GMT (09/12/21)
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