Chelsea host Fulham in a big west London derby on Saturday, with both teams having plenty to play for. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bet.
Football betting tips: Chelsea v Fulham
2.5pts Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 21/20 (General)
Sandwiched in between their two-legged Champions League semi-final with Real Madrid, Chelsea have the small matter of a west London derby against Fulham.
Both have plenty to play for in this game, with the Blues looking to secure a top-four finish and the Cottagers fighting for survival, so we should get a tasty encounter.
Blues incredibly solid
The Thomas Tuchel train left the station a few months ago, and it is proving very difficult to stop.
In a congested 10 days, Chelsea played Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final on Saturday, Brighton in the league on Tuesday, West Ham on Saturday and Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-final on Tuesday. They lost none of them, conceding just one goal.
This highlights the solid nature of this Chelsea team, but also the quality in squad depth that they possess, being able to rotate from game to game without losing anything on the pitch.
Rotation will likely occur again here as they prepare for the second leg of their UCL tie, but the players that are being brought in don’t weaken the side, especially defensively.
Since Tuchel’s arrival, across 19 games in the Premier League and Champions League, the Blues have allowed just 0.64 expected goals against (xGA) per game, conceding more than 1.0 xGA in just two of those matches.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
They have kept 13 clean sheets since his appointment, which is incredible, and it has made up for the lack of dominance and cohesiveness in attack, with the Blues scoring just 32 times and averaging 1.68 xGF per game.
Fulham looking doomed
Scott Parker’s side had all the pundits saying that they were unlucky not to beat Arsenal in their last outing nearly two weeks ago, but that performance was shocking.
They were dominated by an average Arsenal team, mustering just 0.11 non-pen xGF (expected goals for, not counting penalty kicks) while allowing 2.92 xGA, so they were hugely fortunate to come away with anything at all.
That kind of media love-in has occurred nearly all season long, and I’ve never quite been able to put my finger on why.
Given the squad at Parker’s disposal, Fulham should be clear of the drop zone, and while they did have a promising run of performances, that is now a distant memory, with the Cottagers winless in five and now seven points from safety.
It has been in attack where they have had their major struggles this season, and particularly recently, as since beating Everton in mid-February, they have averaged just 1.07 xGF per game – the third worst attacking process in that time.
Defensively they have improved as the season has progressed, but not enough to bail their faltering attack out and potentially save them from the drop.
Another low-scoring Chelsea win the way to go
Chelsea have made a habit under Tuchel of winning close, low-scoring games, and this should follow that same script.
Fulham’s blunt attack and half-decent defence should play their part in the recurring outcome, which is happening because of the Blues’ excellent defence and slightly above-average attack.
CHELSEA TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS looks an obvious play here, but is available at an odds against price of 21/20 this weekend.
Seven of Chelsea’s eight Premier League wins under Tuchel have seen this bet come in, as have all three of their victories in the Champions League. All in all, this bet has landed in 13 of Tuchel’s 22 games in charge across all competitions, and the price is too good to turn down for it to happen again here.
Chelsea v Fulham best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 21/20 (General)
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1540 BST (28/04/21)
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