After winners at 13/5 and 3/1 last week, Michael Beardmore has best bets for the six-pointer between Chelsea and Everton.
Football betting tips: Chelsea v Everton
2pt Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (Betfred, bet365)
1pt Exactly one goal at 15/4 (bet365, BoyleSports)
A mere glance at Carlo Ancelotti’s trophy-filled managerial record tells you he is a man with a point to prove to absolutely nobody.
The Champions League (three times), the Super Cup (three times), the Club World Cup (twice), domestic titles or cups, or both, in his native Italy, England, Spain, France and Germany.
But he would be incredibly thick-skinned not to harbour some resentment over his sacking by Chelsea a decade ago.
For those of you with short memories, Ancelotti led Chelsea to the domestic double in his first season in charge in 2009-10 and a runners-up finish in the Premier League the following year.
Amazingly, that was not enough to prevent Roman Abramovich wielding his axe, with Ancelotti’s final game as Chelsea boss, ironically, a 1-0 defeat at Everton in May 2011 as he paid the price for failing to deliver the Champions League trophy.
Can Carlo Ancelotti's Everton beat Chelsea again?
Ancelotti has already gained a slither of revenge, another Toffees 1-0 win over the Blues at Goodison inflicting significant damage on Chelsea, although nobody knew it at the time.
Frank Lampard’s Blues were cruising along nicely enough back then but that mid-December defeat sparked a run of five losses in seven league games that precipitated the Chelsea legend’s sacking.
Since then, of course, Thomas Tuchel has come in, the German astutely nudging Chelsea very much back on track but Ancelotti’s Everton have been equally impressive, particularly on the road.
Chelsea are unbeaten in nine games under Tuchel, a run featuring admirable wins at Atletico Madrid in the Champions League and Liverpool on Thursday, but Everton have won at Anfield too of course.
Indeed, the Toffees have won nine of 13 away games this season and the 11/2 on them to win here is mighty tempting – they are too good to be that long, only a point behind Chelsea, remember. If you want an outright, they're the clear value.
The Blues, though, are unbeaten under Tuchel for a reason – and it’s mainly a defensive one, seven clean sheets in nine games under him, keeping out Tottenham, Atletico, Manchester United and Liverpool.
When you factor in the fact Everton have kept three straight clean sheets, goals are likely to be at a premium at Stamford Bridge and I was amazed to see UNDER 2.5 GOALS trading at close to evens – 10/11 with both Bet365 and Betfred. It's surely a safer bet than the 8/15 widely on offer for a home win.
Four of Everton’s past five games have featured two goals or fewer, as have eight of Chelsea’s nine games under Tuchel – and this will surely be another tight and tense affair.
Chelsea need to qualify for the Champions League – that’s why Lampard was sacked and Tuchel recruited, after all – while Everton have not had as good an opportunity to reach Europe’s premier competition in years and it would surely count as one of Ancelotti’s greatest accomplishments despite that aforementioned litany of honours.
Both sides will surely realise the importance of this fourth v fifth clash as a result and I’m expecting caution to be the order of the day.
Goalscorer bets were considered – in-form duo Mason Mount and Richarlison at 9s and 11s respectively to score first (or 10/3 and 17/4 any time) the pick of the odds – but it’s tough to choose between them.
And I’m simply not willing to advise on a scorer bet in a game where I think there will be very few goals. Instead I like the 15/4 on offer with bet365 and BoyleSports on EXACTLY ONE GOAL.
Four of Chelsea’s seven wins under Tuchel have been 1-0 and Everton have won their past two by that score – I fancy this to be decided by a goal but I’m not sure which way to lean so it’s safest to plump for both.
Chelsea v Everton score prediction and best bets
Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (Betfred, bet365)
Exactly one goal at 15/4 (bet365, BoyleSports)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1830 GMT on 05/03/21
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