Fresh from two winners in midweek, Joe Rindl has the preview and best bet for Premier League leaders Chelsea against Burnley.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Chelsea to win to nil at 10/11 (General)
Chelsea are, in a word, ruthless.
On Saturday Thomas Tuchel’s side will be bidding for an eighth straight win when they take on Burnley at Stamford Bridge.
It’s a run that’s helped them to the top of the table, three points clear of Liverpool and five ahead of champions Manchester City.
The Blues are the standout team in the division so far this year and though there’s plenty of football left before the end of the season, a start of eight wins and one draw from their first 10 is formidable.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Chelsea 2/9 | Draw 19/4 | Burnley 12/1
But it’s the way they’ve gone about their wins which is so impressive. They’re averaging 2.6 goals per game while conceding just 0.3.
They’re exceeding expectations with Infogol calculating an xGF of 1.8 and xGA of 1.2 although those averages are slightly skewed by their draw against Liverpool (in which they were down to 10 men by half-time) and their loss to Manchester City, a match in which they were dominated.
In their last four games in the Premier League and Champions League the highest xG a team has racked up against them is 0.28 - last weekend's 3-0 win over Newcastle.
Meanwhile, the lowest xG Chelsea have created in that span was the 2.40 they managed in their 1-0 win over Malmo last time out.
These numbers will worry any team, especially one sitting in 18th, having collected just seven points from their first 10 games of 2021-22.
That’s the situation Burnley find themselves in, three points off safety despite beating Brentford 3-1 at home last time out.
And Sean Dyche’s are yet to score against any of the traditional top six this season, having lost 2-0 to Manchester City and Liverpool, and 1-0 to Arsenal.
With the Blues being such overwhelming favourites, it’s a surpise to see CHELSEA TO WIN TO NIL priced at 10/11.
Chelsea have won five of their past six meetings, keeping a clean sheet in each of those victories.
They also have a fine record against Burnley, winning five of their last six and keeping clean sheets in four of those games.
Meanwhile, the Clarets aren’t exactly setting the world alight going forward. They’ve averaged exactly one goal per game so far in the league with their average xG per match slightly higher at 1.38.
Recently they’ve failed to score in three of their past five and should struggle against a Chelsea team who have found the net in 90 percent of their Premier League fixtures this season.
A Chelsea win to nil is the play here.
Chelsea v Burnley best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Chelsea to win to nil at 10/11 (General)
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (05/11/21)
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