Chelsea have an FA Cup Final to prepare for, but must face Arsenal first on Wednesday knowing a win all-but secures a top-four spot for next season. Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to preview the clash.
Premier League betting tips: Chelsea v Arsenal
2.5pts Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Thomas Tuchel is proving exactly why Chelsea had to take the opportunity to appoint him in January.
The German has revitalised the Blues, making them look like a much better team all over the pitch, and the results are backing up his process.
A Champions League final was achieved last week, and this Saturday they play Leicester in an FA Cup final. Along with reaching those showpiece events, Chelsea have climbed back into the top four.
Kick-off time: 20:15 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 7/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 17/4
Consistency is key
The Blues have been incredibly consistent ever since he was appointed coach. They have lost just two of 25 under Tuchel, one being a freak home loss to West Brom and the other being a meaningless last-minute goal in the second leg of a Champions League tie with Porto.
Most of that is down to Tuchel’s tactics and methods, but some of it is thanks to a sensationally deep squad with quality galore. The latter has helped them fight on all fronts since his arrival.
The squad will be key in this game, as after playing at full strength against both Real Madrid on Tuesday and Manchester City in their 2-1 win at the weekend, players will need a rest ahead of the FA Cup Final.
Defensive structure has been the turning point of their season, and has provided them with the consistency required to be a top level team.
Since Tuchel’s appointment, no team has a better defensive record than Chelsea in terms of actual goals conceded (9) and expected goals against (xGA) per game (0.64).
For perspective, if Chelsea were to replicate that level over a full season, they would become the best defensive team from a data perspective that Infogol has ever seen.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances
Since the collection of xG data began at Infogol in 2014, no Premier League team has gone a full season allowing less than 0.7 xGA per game (Manchester City 18/19).
This just highlights the level the Blues are playing at defensively under Tuchel.
Arsenal coasting home
It has been a season to forget for Arsenal fans. Not only did their team try and join the European Super League even when they haven’t finished in the top four of the Premier League since 2016, but they are set for their lowest league finish since 1995.
Mikel Arteta’s side were knocked out of the Europa League last week, and though they followed that up with a 3-1 win over West Brom, the Gunners were second best according to the quality of chances created (xG: ARS 1.22 – 1.93 WBA).
They occupy ninth after that win, five points off sixth placed Liverpool with three games left to play.
Signs have been there of things turning around from a process standpoint, but there are giant strides to be made this summer if they are to get back into contention for a European place next season.
They are injury hit heading into this game, and against the so called ‘big six’ this season, have lost five of nine, winning three times.
Get Chelsea onside again
Chelsea are a backable price at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday at around 7/10, and I wouldn’t put anyone off snapping that up.
The Blues, despite a manic fixture schedule, have the quality in depth to cope superbly, and they have an incredible defensive platform that means they are unlikely to concede many chances no matter who is playing there.
Unsurprisingly given their defence under Tuchel, Chelsea’s matches have seen under 3.5 goals in 23 of his 25 games in charge, while 16 of their 17 victories have seen CHELSEA WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS.
They win a lot, but rarely do those wins see a lot of goals. Tuchel has played four games against the ‘big six’ since his arrival, winning three, and all four have seen no more than three goals.
Arsenal have been fairly competitive in ‘big six’ meetings this term, winning three of nine, but seven of those nine have seen under 3.5 goals, so they hang in against the best even if they lose.
Chelsea v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 15:40 BST (10/05/21)
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