Tom Carnduff is predicting a tight opening encounter between Charlton and Shrewsbury in the Sky Bet League One play-offs.
Charlton Athletic v Shrewsbury Town (Sky Sports Football, 1945 BST)
The 2018 Sky Bet EFL play-offs get under way on Thursday night, with a tight game expected between Charlton and Shrewsbury at the Valley.
Lee Bowyer's Charlton side have enjoyed the better form of these two, yet their last seven games have seen under 2.5 goals and I'd be looking at a low-scoring and tight affair here.
Equally, Shrewsbury have had just one game see three or more goals in their last seven outings, and two or less goals is available at a best price of 8/15.
Whilst Town's away form hasn't been the best in recent weeks, they'd still be satisfied with a draw to take back to the Montgomery Waters Meadow on Sunday and I think there is good value in backing the result to be shared.
This tie is the one I'm looking forward to the most out of all six from the EFL because it's incredibly difficult to call either way.
The fact that both of these sides could have a fairytale ending to their season just adds to the excitement, with one guaranteed a spot in the final.
Salop were favourites for relegation at the start of the season and promotion will have a real 'rags to riches' feel about it if they win at Wembley, whilst Charlton have a former academy player at the helm, returning to potentially lead the first-team back to the division above.
Both sides picked up a 2-0 win each in the regular season meetings, and Shrewsbury will have to end a run of five away games without victory if they are to repeat that this time around.
The referee for this one is Simon Hooper, who is more of a familiar face in the Sky Bet Championship and occasionally the FA Cup and Premier League.
He's shown an average of 35 booking points this season, and this game may see more cards as both teams fight for a spot in the Championship next season.
Jake Forster-Caskey may be a player worth looking at to catch the referee's attention in this first-leg.
Forster-Caskey has been shown 11 yellow cards this season, more than any other Charlton player. He's 11/4 to be shown a card by Hooper which seems great value given his track record this season.
I do like the appealing price of the draw given the fact that both sides have dropped points in recent weeks.
Three of Town's last five away from Shropshire have ended in draws whilst Charlton failed to secure victory against play-off rivals Scunthorpe at home in mid-April.
Understandably, Charlton are favourites for this one, but I'd be hopeful of a draw to keep the tie firmly alive for what should be a thrilling conclusion in Shrewsbury.
Whilst there have been low-scoring games involving these sides in recent weeks, we do see goals in the first-half. There's been a goal in four of Charlton's last five at home, whilst Shrewsbury have seen the net struck in the first 45 minutes in four of their last five away.
Charlton to score one or more goals in the first-half can be found at 6/5, whilst 7/4 is available on Shrewsbury to do the same.
Score prediction: Charlton 1-1 Shrewsbury (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Best bet: Jake Forster-Caskey to be shown a card at 11/5
Alternative bet: Charlton to draw with Shrewsbury at 23/10
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Odds correct at 1650 BST (09/05/18)
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