Tom Carnduff previews the 2021 Sky Bet Championship play-offs with outright picks, statistics, historical data and more.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship play-offs
2pts Barnsley to win the Sky Bet Championship play-offs at 4/1 (BetVictor)
3pts Barnsley and Brentford to make the final at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
After a season of highs and lows, the Sky Bet Championship play-offs have arrived with four teams battling to secure their spot in the Premier League for the 2021/22 campaign.
For the neutral, it's the most spectacular two weeks of football, for fans of those involved, it's three nerve-filled fixtures.
Brentford, Bournemouth and Swansea are the expected names involved in the post-season competition, although there may be some disappointment there that they didn't secure an automatic promotion spot, while Barnsley, a 50/1 each-way tip in our outright preview, surprised some by finishing 5th.
The Bees take favouritism with Sky Bet offering 7/4 on Thomas Frank's side going one better than last season when beaten by Fulham in the showpiece final. Bournemouth closely follow them at 9/4 while Barnsley (7/2) and Swansea (4/1), who meet in the semi-final, are the outsiders - but one of those two will be in the final.
When are the Sky Bet Championship play-offs?
The Sky Bet Championship play-offs get underway on Monday May 17 and will conclude on Saturday May 29, with all matches shown live on Sky Sports Football. The full semi-final schedule is:
- Bournemouth v Brentford: Monday May 17 at 18:00
- Barnsley v Swansea: Monday May 17 at 20:15
- Brentford v Bournemouth: Saturday May 22 at 12:30
- Swansea v Barnsley: Saturday May 22 at 17:30
The Sky Bet Championship play-off final will be staged at Wembley Stadium and it is scheduled to take place on Saturday May 29. However, the potential movement of the Champions League final may see this game either switch venue or date.
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Does form matter in the play-offs?
It's a common belief that a team needs to approach the play-offs in good form. That has proven to be true at times, the most recent example being Aston Villa who won eight of their final ten games before securing promotion in the 2018/19 season.
However, what history has shown is that form can count for nothing when it comes to these final three games. Only title winners Leeds could better Brentford's results over the final ten games of last season, yet it was Fulham, who were 6th in the form table over the same period, that won promotion to the Premier League.
Fulham did top the form charts over the final ten games of 2017/18 before being promoted through the play-offs but there are numerous examples of where form can count for little, and that may make for bad reading yet again for favourites Brentford.
The most remarkable recent example was the 2016/17 season, where Huddersfield defied the odds to beat Reading on penalties in the final. In the final ten games of that campaign, the Terriers were 19th in the form charts with just three wins. The Royals were 2nd with 21 points gained from a possible 30.
Going back further, Crystal Palace secured promotion in 2012/13 despite sitting 22nd in the final ten games table. They had won just one of their last 10 fixtures. Ian Holloway's side would then win the play-offs without conceding a goal in over 300 minutes of football.
Over the past ten seasons, the winning teams have been in the following positions over the final ten games form charts (Matchday 37 - 46):
- 2019/20: Fulham - 6th
- 2018/19: Aston Villa - 1st
- 2017/18: Fulham - 1st
- 2016/17: Huddersfield - 19th
- 2015/16: Hull - 8th
- 2014/15: Norwich - 3rd
- 2013/14: QPR - 8th
- 2012/13: Crystal Palace - 22nd
- 2011/12: West Ham - 6th
- 2010/11: Swansea - 6th
Who tops the form charts this season? Bournemouth will be hoping that they can continue their ten-game form, while Swansea will be looking to draw upon the spirit of Crystal Palace and Huddersfield.
- 2nd - Bournemouth | 7-0-3 | 21pts
- 3rd - Brentford | 5-5-0 | 20pts
- 8th - Barnsley | 5-2-3 | 17pts
- 17th - Swansea | 3-2-5 | 11pts
Over the past ten seasons, the average ten-game form chart position for the play-off winning team is 8th.
What about results between the four teams?
Another popular play-off belief is that good results against the other three teams over the course of a season will put you in a good position for promotion. However, like the form charts, recent history tells us that it isn't strictly true.
For clarification, this is looking at the results between the four teams only and creating a mini-league from those results. This season, Brentford top the mini-league as they did in 2019/20.
- Brentford | 3-2-1 | 11pts
- Swansea | 2-3-1 | 9pts
- Bournemouth | 2-1-3 | 7pts
- Barnsley | 2-0-4 | 6pts
Context is key in this season though. Brentford beat Bournemouth in the final few games of the campaign while Barnsley won't be too concerned with their results. Their two wins against other play-off teams have come from February onwards - the four defeats were before that and their charge up the table.
Looking at the 16 seasons since the rebrand to the Championship, the breakdown of promoted teams and their position in the play-off mini-league is:
- 1st - 5
- 2nd - 7
- 3rd - 0
- 4th - 4
The worry for Bournemouth is that no team finishing 3rd in the mini-league has gone on to be promoted, and they have to beat favourites Brentford to reach the final, while history favours Swansea in this situation.
However, for Barnsley, they will look to draw confidence from Hull in 2015/16 and then Huddersfield in 2016/17 who both finished 4th in these standings.
Who will win the semi-finals?
With the play-off places confirmed with a few games remaining, the final part of the Championship season saw the four teams battling for positions and potential semi-final fixtures.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances
Brentford v Bournemouth
- Season head-to-head: Bournemouth 0-1 Brentford (April 24); Brentford 2-1 Bournemouth (December 30)
- Game dates: Monday May 17 at 18:00; Saturday May 22 at 12:30
This is a fascinating tie because of how good these two teams have been over the last ten games of the season. The concern for Bournemouth will be their end to the season, with three defeats coming against Stoke, Wycombe and, perhaps worryingly, Brentford.
Brentford won both of their regular season games against Bournemouth and they deserved the points. Infogol had the Bees winning the xG battle on both occasions, 2.63 to 0.61 in their April meeting and 1.94 to 1.41 in December.
That result in April is significant because of how recent it was. Brentford should have won by more than one, as their xG figure highlights, and they had a huge 18 total shots to Bournemouth's four.
The expectation is that the team who will win this is the one who will secure promotion - and it should be Brentford taking their spot in the final for the second consecutive season.
Swansea v Barnsley
- Season head-to-head: Barnsley 0-2 Swansea (January 16); Swansea 2-0 Barnsley (December 19)
- Game dates: Monday May 17 at 20:15; Saturday May 22 at 17:30
Swansea take the season head-to-head in this one, with a pair of 2-0 victories over Barnsley, but both of those came before Valerien Ismael had time to implement his system with the South Yorkshire side.
Even if the Swans won the xG battle in both, it wasn't as convincing as the scoreline suggests. The January meeting saw them edge it 0.76 to 0.65, while the first game was 1.02 to 0.60 in Swansea's favour.
Barnsley will draw confidence from the fact that Swansea finished the season with one win from their final five games and that was against a Derby side who survived relegation on the final day. Even then, the Rams won the xG battle (SWA 0.56 - 0.91 DER).
The forms charts show how Swansea finished their campaign with three wins from ten and they came against Derby, relegated Sheffield Wednesday and the out-of-form Millwall.
The good thing about the Barnsley form is that when they have lost in the second-half of the season they have often bounced back with a positive result next - the same can't be said for Swansea.
Given that Barnsley and Brentford are fancied to reach the final, one of the two best outright bets for the play-offs is BARNSLEY AND BRENTFORD ON THE DUAL FORECAST at 9/4.
Who will win the Sky Bet Championship play-offs?
I've been hoping Barnsley had a big season after backing them as an each-way selection for the title when the odds suggested they'd be in a relegation battle. While they finished just outside of the top-three, I'm really happy with their performance and the position that puts them in for the play-offs.
It'll be quite the turnaround from 2019/20. Barnsley scored the winner against Brentford with virtually the last kick of the season to avoid relegation. Now, they could be playing them for a spot in the Premier League. The job that Ismael has done at Oakwell is remarkable.
Should they get past Swansea, they could face a side in Brentford who have play-off experience though. The Bees were fancied for promotion last season but couldn't get the job done and we have to acknowledge how significant that Wembley outing could be for Frank's men.
The thing is, Barnsley secured a very convincing 2-0 victory when the two teams met in the season. I don't want to draw upon regular season results too much, but that performance alongside the result suggests that they may know what it takes to beat the Bees when it matters.
Alongside the three points, the Tykes won the xG battle 2.13 to 0.85. This wasn't just a victory it was, dominant display. A similar performance against Brentford in a possible final showdown would see the Barnsley fans' nerves disappear in the final ten minutes.
Barnsley are also the value play of the play-offs and they have every chance of winning in a one-off game. The 4/1 price available is influenced by Brentford's short enough odds on promotion, yet they have been in this situation before and failed.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Thomas Frank's side promoted, as is the case with a lot of people, but I'm drawn to Barnsley's price. They don't even have to win all three, Huddersfield didn't win one when they went up, and the Tykes have demonstrated that they are a tough side to beat.
Ismael's men have lost just three of their last 19 games, Brentford have lost four over the same period. It also puts them in a good position for the semi-final considering Swansea have lost three of their last eight and lost four on the bounce in a torrid period between March and April.
Is the play-offs a case of who is better at winning games or who can avoid losing in them? I lean towards the latter. When it comes to efficiency and finding a way to get results, Barnsley and Brentford are the two who tick the box out of the four.
Then it comes down to who can win on the day. At a best price of 4/1, with 7/2 available across the board, it's worth backing BARNSLEY to upset the odds and secure a remarkable promotion to the Premier League.
Sky Bet Championship play-offs best bets
- 2pts Barnsley to win the Sky Bet Championship play-offs at 4/1 (BetVictor)
- 3pts Barnsley and Brentford to make the final at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
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Odds correct at 1315 BST (10/05/21)
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