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Championship final day: Who will make the play-offs?
With Fulham and Bournemouth already heading for the Premier League, the Sky Bet Championship focus turns to the two remaining play-off spots that could go to any of four teams on the final day.
It took them a while to confirm it, but Fulham have been a Premier League team for a good few months now and were confirmed as champions with a 7-0 thrashing of Luton on Monday.
Just 24 hours later, former Cottagers boss Scott Parker's new side Bournemouth joined them in sealing a return to the top flight as Kieffer Moore's late strike finally ended the automatic promotion hopes of third-placed Nottingham Forest.
Forest, like fourth-placed Huddersfield, at least have the consolation of being guaranteed a play-off spot. Sheffield United and Luton currently hold the final two spots in the top six. Chasing them are Middlesbrough and Millwall.
Millwall did require something special on the last day to sneak in, but no longer need a huge goal-difference swing thanks to Luton's mauling by Fulham. They do face Bournemouth, though.
While Sheffield United and Luton each know it’s ‘win and in’, each holding a two-point cushion over Middlesbrough – and a three-point advantage over Millwall – there are reasons to suspect it might not be that straightforward.
Sky Bet Championship table
- Fulham | Played: 45 | Points: 87 | Goal Difference: +67
- Bournemouth | Played: 45 | Points: 85 | Goal Difference: +34
- Nottingham Forest | Played: 45 | Points: 79 | Goal Difference: +33
- Huddersfield | Played: 45 | Points: 79 | Goal Difference: +15
- Sheffield United | Played: 45 | Points: 72 | Goal Difference: +14
- Luton | Played: 45 | Points: 72 | Goal Difference: +7
- Middlesbrough | Played: 45 | Points: 70 | Goal Difference: +12
- Millwall | Played: 45 | Points: 69 | Goal Difference: +9
Championship to reach the play-offs odds (via Sky Bet)
- Sheffield United - 1/7
- Luton - 1/6
- Middlesbrough - 13/8
- Millwall - 18/1
Odds correct at 1445 GMT (04/05/22)
Sheffield United (5th)
- Final-day fixture: Fulham (H)
- Form: DLDWW
- Points/GD: 72, +14
- Infogol forecast: 6th
It’s one thing knowing a win at home on the final day of the season will secure a play-off place.
It’s quite another when the visitors are by far the best team in the division, already crowned champions and with a 43-goal top scorer in their ranks.
Yes, Blades fans will have long had one eye on this fixture, hoping their side could nail down a top-six spot before Fulham and Aleksandar Mitrovic come to town on the final day.
That hasn’t happened – and chances are, Sheffield United will need something from this game. Should they lose, Boro win and Luton avoid defeat, the Blades will be the team to miss out.
The additional worry for them is that a point might not even be enough if both Luton and Boro win, although the latter will also need to overturn a goal difference inferior by two.
That does give Paul Heckingbottom’s side a modicum of extra insurance – but they would certainly rather be playing anybody else on the final day than a Cottagers side with 106 goals this season.
Infogol’s Expected Goals metrics forecast a sixth-placed finish for the Blades – meaning they are not expected to beat the champions but are predicted to sneak in anyway.
Luton (6th)
- Final-day fixture: Reading (H)
- Form: LWWDL
- Points/GD: 72, +7
- Infogol forecast: 5th
Most teams in the division can attest to the dangers Fulham pose but for none will those memories be fresher in the mind than Luton, whose goal difference was obliterated by Monday’s 7-0 thrashing at Craven Cottage.
That demoralising defeat will have left mental scars but the mathematical ones could be even more damaging given, prior to that game, the Hatters had the joint best goal difference of the four sides battling for the two play-offs – and, now, they have the worst.
On paper, they have the easiest final-day fixture of the four – at home to a Reading side saved only from relegation this season by Derby’s 21-point deduction.
But the Royals have produced some shock results this season – winning at Fulham and Sheffield United, holding Bournemouth to a draw away, beating Middlesbrough and Blackburn at home.
Add to that the fact the Hatters have been crippled by injuries, top scorer Elijah Adebayo among nine first-team players who missed the Fulham hammering.
Luton were the Championship’s Expected Goals darlings during the first half of the season but their process has slipped in recent weeks, losing the xG battle in five of their past seven and claiming only nine points from the past 21 available.
Infogol predicts they will finish fifth but that does not take the injuries into account – a home win is by no means a foregone conclusion and a failure to achieve that would push the door wide open for a Boro side with a goal difference superior by five.
Middlesbrough (7th)
- Final-day fixture: Preston (A)
- Form: DLDWW
- Points/GD: 70, +12
- Infogol forecast: 7th
Should either Sheffield United or Luton fail to win, Middlesbrough are the team in prime position to take advantage.
The Teessiders appeared to have blown their chance, scoring just once in a winless five-game run that saw them take only two points from a possible 15 either side of Easter.
But back-to-back home victories over Cardiff and Stoke have revived their hopes ahead of a final-day trip to a Preston side blowing hot and cold under Ryan Lowe.
Boro’s away form has been distinctly mid-table all season, while only Bournemouth and West Bromwich Albion (both three) have suffered fewer home defeats than Preston (four).
Chris Wilder’s side, two points off the top six, travel in the knowledge only a win will do – and even then they need favours elsewhere, but a best price of 17/10 on them to make it will have its backers.
Millwall (8th)
- Final-day fixture: Bournemouth (A)
- Form: WDWDW
- Points/GD: 69, +9
- Infogol forecast: 9th
Gary Rowett has once again had the Lions punching above their weight in the second tier, although a leap into the top six on the final day maybe prove one step too far.
Millwall must win at second-placed Bournemouth, a side beaten a division-low three times at home this season – although at least the Lions have the clarity of knowing only victory will suffice.
It’s not beyond a side that has won nine and drawn five of its past 16 games, losing just two, to haul themselves into contention but the trouble is, even a win might not be enough.
They would still require two of the following three to happen: Middlesbrough to fail to win, Luton to lose and Sheffield United to lose heavily (likely by four or more goals) to Fulham.
It’s not inconceivable, of course, but odds of 18/1 on Millwall making the play-offs shows how unlikely it is - indeed Infogol's model thinks they will drop to ninth on the final day, with Blackburn leapfrogging the Lions.
What if teams finish level on points, goal difference and goals scored?
There is a distinct possibility that Sheffield United and Middlesbrough finish with identical seasonal records – so close are Chris Wilder’s current charges and his former club as things stand.
Sheffield United sit on 72 points, with a goal difference of +14, GF 59 GA 45 – while Boro are on 70 points with a goal difference of +12, GF 58 GA 46.
Should the Blades draw, say 1-1 against Fulham and Boro win 2-0 at Preston, they would be locked together on 73 points, GD +14, GF 60 GA 46 – identical records.
There are other pairs of scorelines that would produce a deadlock – a 2-2 Blades draw and a 3-1 Boro win, a 3-3 Blades draw and a 4-2 Boro win – but the aforementioned one is the most likely.
If teams can’t be separated by goal difference or goals scored, then the final positions are decided by the head-to-head record.
That would be bad news for Boro – they did beat United 2-0 at the Riverside in September but were thrashed 4-1 at Bramall Lane in March, giving the Blades a 4-3 aggregate advantage. Imagine if it comes down to that!
