Monaco can trouble Juventus' much-vaunted defence in Wednesday's Champions League semi-final, says our Andy Schooler.
Recommended bets:
Click here for our transparent tipping record.
Monaco v Juventus (1945 BST, BT Sport 2)
Such are these sides’ strengths, Wednesday’s Champions League semi-final looks a classic attack v defence scenario.
It will certainly be intriguing to see how both set about the task of overcoming the other but I’m wary about taking the generalisation too far.
Let’s take Juve to start. Their defensive strength is reflected by the fact they’ve conceded just twice in their 10 Champions League games this season and they’ve yet to let one in during the knockout stage.
This is no particular surprise – their defensive foundations were a prime reason for me tipping them at 12/1 in the outright market back in September – and keeping Barcelona out over two legs, as they did in the quarter-final, is to be applauded.
However, Lionel Messi certainly had an off day in front of goal in that second leg, while if you are seeking further evidence of their vulnerability on the road, you can look back at their group-stage match in Sevilla where they could easily have been more than a goal down when their hosts had a man sent off. Juve took full advantage and duly won 3-1.
However, the fact is they are not impregnable and the famous lynchpins of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci are set for a stiff test here against Monaco’s young, vibrant attack.
Kylian Mbappe (it’s 18 goals in 18 games for the 18-year-old) has grabbed most of the headlines during Monaco’s fine run but he’s got an excellent supporting cast.
This includes the rejuvenated Radamel Falcao, Tiemoue Bakayoko and seemingly whoever they decide to play out wide – and it is in those wide areas where Monaco look most likely to cause their opponents trouble.
They’ve now won their last 13 at the Stade Louis II, while it’s six wins and a draw at home in this competition this season. They have scored in all seven of those matches and only PSG have kept them out in their last 30 games.
While 0-0 would be a good result for Monaco, it’s hard to see them changing their natural attacking game in this one. It could also be suicide because for all Juve’s defensive prowess, the Italians also offer plenty going forward.
Gonzalo Higuain isn’t on everyone’s ‘top forwards’ list but I remain a big fan, in particular of his ability to find goalscoring positions.
Paulo Dybala showed his threat in the quarter-final win over Barca, while Juan Cuadrado continues to make a mockery of Chelsea’s decision to sign him and give him very little game time.
Essentially, there are plenty of goals in this team, as shown by the fact that Barca are the only side in Juve’s last 35 games to deny them at least one.
I’m firmly of the view that Juve will score – it should be remembered that this is a Monaco side which shipped five at Manchester City when they went head-to-head with another team committed to attack.
Given I’m also of the opinion that an attack as talented as Monaco’s can create chances against the visitors’ defence, it’s both teams to score that I’m liking the look of in this one at 3/4.
For those seeking something bigger, the home side may offer a spot of value here. They are bigger than 2/1 to claim the win they will likely need heading into next week’s second leg, while they are still odds-against with the draw-no-bet safety net.
Getting 2-1 in the correct score market at 11/1 could also tempt those who agree that Monaco look capable of forcing their way through Europe's most feared defence.
Given Juve have won just two of their last seven away games in all competitions, that's not as far-fetched as some may tell you.
Prediction: Monaco 2-1 Juventus
Opta facts:
o This is the second time these sides have met in a Champions League semi-final; Juventus securing their passage to the final with a 6-4 aggregate victory 19 years ago before losing to Real Madrid in the final (1997/98).
o Juve have reached the final in five of their six previous Champions League semis.
o Juventus, alongside Real Madrid, are the only unbeaten team in this season’s Champions League (W7 D3) and haven’t conceded a goal for 531 minutes, the current longest run in the competition.
o Monaco have won 71% of their home games in the Champions League (22 out of 31). Among clubs to have hosted at least 30 games, only Real Madrid (76.5%), Barcelona (72.1%) & Bayern Munich (71.3%) have a better win ratio.
o Monaco have scored exactly three goals in each of their four Champions League knockout games this season. In fact, they are the first team in the competition’s history to find the net at least three times in four consecutive knockout games.
o Monaco have conceded 16 goals in the Champions League this season; more than any other team among the remaining semi-finalists.
o None of the two goals conceded by Juventus in this season’s Champions League have come from open play (10 games).
o Monaco have converted none of the three penalties they’ve been awarded in the Champions League this season.
o 18 year-old Kylian Mbappé is the joint-top scorer in this season’s Champions League knockout stages alongside Cristiano Ronaldo, with five goals in four games and is also the first player in Champions League history to score in each of his first four knockout games.
o Thomas Lemar is the top assist provider in this season’s knockout stages, with four offerings. He’s the first player to assist a goal in four consecutive knockout games since Andrés Iniesta in May 2011.
o Gonzalo Higuain has scored only two goals in 24 Champions League knockout games. In the group stages, he’s netted 13 goals in 38 games.
o Falcao has scored 39 goals in the Europa League and Champions League since his debut in September 2009 against Chelsea; only Robert Lewandowski (41), Lionel Messi (77) and Cristiano Ronaldo (85) have more European goals (excl. qualifiers).
o Paulo Dybala has scored four goals in five Champions League knockout games.
Posted at 1410 BST on 02/05/17.
