David John opts for a home victory for Real Madrid against City rivals Atletico in the Champions League on Tuesday.
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Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (1945 BST, BT Sport 2)
Manager Diego Simeone and Atletico revisit an all-too-familiar situation in this competition as once again their cross-city rivals stand between them and potential glory in the Champions League.
This will be the fourth year on the spin the pair have met in the competition as the tally stands at 3-0 to the hosts – two victories have come in the final to boot as we now reach desperation levels for the Argentine to at last deliver that European triumph.
They will once more play the role of underdog but an encouraging recent run of results that now stands at three unbeaten at the Santiago Bernabeu must at least be the foundation for some optimism to set up next week’s second leg.
A rampant 5-0 LaLiga thrashing of Las Palmas at the weekend with them 3-0 up and cruising inside the first 18 minutes makes for pleasing reading as well but surely Simeone’s approach will be far more circumspect with the prized asset of a clean sheet seemingly attainable.
They have conceded just three times in their last 12 outings (one coming away to this rival at the start of last month) but such a stupendously miserly record must be under some threat as Atleti battle an untimely rash of injury problems at the back.
Simeone could well find himself going into battle without as many as three first-choice defenders that will necessitate a reshuffle possibly involving Stefan Savic and Koke having to play out of position – both are undoubtedly experienced heads but exactly the sort of fine margin to be exploited.
Simeone’s opposite number Zinedine Zidane made the exact same point about how tight it is between the pair in his pre-match press conference.
"We are not favourites,” he observed.
“It is 50-50. Each year Atletico improve, and they always make it difficult for us. They always fight, battle and know their weapons.
"We also have our weapons and we will try and think about our own game. We will try and do something new.”
That something could be unleashing an in-form Isco, who has been selected by the Frenchman to replace the sidelined Gareth Bale ahead of James Rodriguez.
The Spaniard was rested at the weekend with this game very much in mind and a wonderful display prior against Deportivo with a goal and an assist could mean he steps forward as the feature player who can unlock that depleted visiting defence.
Real, along with Juventus, remain the only clubs not to have been beaten in the competition this season while they hold the record on their own of having won both legs in the last-16 and quarter-final encounters against Napoli and Bayern Munich.
Atletico are also tasked with conquering a formidable European record as well if they want an advantage to take back to the Vicente Calderon – Real are unbeaten at home in two years in the Champions League which equates to 13 games – 11 wins, two stalemates and a healthy 37-8 aggregate in their favour.
The rampant attacking capabilities has the ability to paper over the cracks of a very leaky rear-guard that just can’t keep a clean sheet – they have managed only two in 19 matches stretching back to January.
It is perhaps in that area a bet then presents itself.
They may have had the rug whipped from under them by Barcelona in a dramatic recent encounter but I don’t see a mistake of that nature here – add in a spirited Atletico effort along the way and a home win with both sides to score makes appeal.
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Atletico Madrid
Opta facts:
o This is the fourth season in succession that these city rivals face off in the Champions League knockout phase; Atlético are yet to claim victory over Los Blancos during this recent run (D2 L2).
o This is a re-run of the 2013/14 and 2015/16 finals; Real Madrid claiming a 4-1 win and a penalty shootout victory respectively to lift the trophy on both occasions.
o Real and Atlético have met in a European Cup/Champions League semi-final before, Los Blancos progressing through to the final after three legs against their city rivals during the 1958/59 campaign; they went on to lift the trophy.
o Atlético Madrid have reached the semi-finals of the Champions League for the third time in four seasons. They had never reached that stage previously (since 1992/93).
o Real Madrid have reached the Champions League semis for the 7th consecutive season, a record in the history of the tournament.
o Atlético Madrid have lost only one of their 10 Champions League games this season (W7 D2).
o Since 2010/11, Real Madrid have won 35 of their 41 Champions League games at Santiago Bernabeu (D4 L2). Their two defeats during that time came against Barcelona in April 2011 (0-2) and Schalke in March 2015 (3-4).
o Real Madrid, alongside Juventus, are the only unbeaten team in this season’s Champions League (W7 D3). They have also only lost one of their last 12 knockout games (W8 D3), it was against Wolfsburg in April 2016 (0-2).
o Real Madrid have scored at least two goals in each of their 10 Champions League games this season. However, they have also failed to keep a single clean sheet in those 10 games.
o Atlético Madrid are the lowest scoring team in this season’s Champions League amongst the four semi-finalists (13 goals in 10 games).
o Real Madrid have won all four of their knockout games in this season’s Champions League despite conceding the opening goal in each of them.
Posted at 1740 BST on 01/05/17.
