Tim Clement fancies Monaco and Juventus to defy the odds again in Wednesday's Champions League action.
Recommended bets:
Barcelona v Juventus (1945 BST, BT Sport 2)
Barcelona have left themselves with another mammoth task to progress in the Champions League, but while the margin is less, the task looks even harder this time round.
Luis Enrique’s men became the first team to overturn a four-goal deficit when they romped to a 6-1 win over PSG at the Nou Camp and need to produce something special again after losing 3-0 in Turin.
However, the visitors this time round are a completely different proposition, with Juve’s abundance of experience and superior backline making them far more equipped at defending a lead.
Their defence has only conceded once on the road in this season’s competition and just twice in total, both from set-pieces, while PSG’s was breached in all of their away group games.
They’ll also be more comfortable with the prospect of facing limited possession in Catalonia, something which PSG desperately struggled with as they had less than 30 percent possession on that fateful night.
Massimiliano Allegri’s side do not need to dominate games in the middle of the park to win them, as illustrated in the first leg when Barca had 68 per cent of the ball.
Juve have an average of 55 percent possession in Serie A, 10 percent less than Barca boast in LaLiga, but it is the visitors who sit eight points clear at the top of their table.
PSG should have killed off the tie with the chances on the counter-attack against a Barca backline, which is unconvincing at best and, once again, Juve are more dangerous in that department, with Gonzalo Higuain supported by rising star Paulo Dybala and the experienced Mario Mandzukic.
Barca also had more time to regroup after the PSG loss but have had just a week to plot their revenge this time round, muddling to a 3-2 home win over Real Sociedad in between the two legs.
All of the above leads me to suggest that Juve will not be blown away and that they’ll almost certainly score against a defence which has conceded seven goals in their last three games.
Higuain may not have netted last Tuesday but he has bagged a brace in his last three league games, making the 2/1 on him to net anytime hold appeal.
Dybala is an even bigger price at 11/4 , also with Sky Bet, but limped off at the weekend, while he has scored 13 goals less than his compatriot this season.
Indeed, with his previous four goals coming from the penalty spot, he hadn’t scored from open play since the middle of February.
All considered, the widely available 5/1 on Juve is tempting but given the state of the tie I'll take them at odds-against with a goal start on the handicap.
Prediction: Barcelona 1-2 Juventus
Opta Facts:
o No team has ever overturned a 3-0 first-leg defeat in the Champions League knockout stages in eight previous attempts, although Barcelona managed the biggest ever comeback in the last round by eliminating Paris SG 6-5 on aggregate after a 4-0 first leg defeat.
o Barcelona have won their last 15 Champions League games at the Camp Nou (50 goals scored, 7 conceded), all since Luis Enrique took charge. It’s currently the longest run in the competition and two short of the record held by Bayern Munich (16).
o Barcelona have scored at least three goals in seven of their last eight Champions League games at the Camp Nou.
o However, Barcelona have lost three of their last six Champions League games, as many losses as in their previous 26 games under Luis Enrique.
o Juventus are also the only team to have won all four of their Champions League away games this season (10 goals scored, 1 conceded), their best ever run of victories on the road in the competition.
o Juventus haven���t conceded a goal for 441 minutes, also the current longest run in the competition they while have conceded fewer goals in the Champions League this season than any of the other seven sides still left in the competition (2 in 9 games). Both of those goals came from set-piece.
Monaco v Borussia Dortmund (1945 BST, BT Sport 3)
The sentimental temptation is to back Dortmund to overturn their first-leg deficit after UEFA and then Monaco left them with a big ask to reach the semi-finals.
Thomas Tuchel’s men had to play the first-leg less than 24 hours after the most troubling of experiences as their team bus was subject of an attack, resulting in defender Marc Bartra suffering a broken wrist.
They’ll need to be in the right place mentally when they visit the Stade Louis II, with only Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich boasting a better home record in the competition with Monaco boasting a 70 percent win ratio at their 18,523 seater stadium.
The principality actually registered just two shots on target in the first leg, having benefitted from a bizarre Sven Bender own goal to lead 2-0.
However, the big concern is Dortmund’s away form, with just two wins in their last eight away matches in all competitions and four in 15 in total in the Bundesliga.
With Monaco winning all but two of their 16 home league games and beating Tottenham and Manchester City on home turf this season, they should surely be favourites on Wednesday night.
However, they are widely available at 2/1 for the second leg, with the visitors 5/2 favourites.
The one certainty seems to be that we’ll see more goals, but with the under/over markets will adjusted, it is the ‘to win and both teams to score’ markets which hold appeal.
The bet I like is Monaco prevailing despite having their backline breached, which was also the case against Spurs and City, and is where I’ll be investing.
Dortmund are the competition's highest scorers with 29 goals from their nine games, while Monaco have the worst defensive record of those still in the competition, conceding 15 times.
The over goals also adds to the appeal of the ‘anytime goalscorer’ market, with Europe’s rising star Kylian Mbappe attractive at 7/4 with Coral, having taken his tally to 13 goals from as many starts last week.
Prediction: Monaco 3-2 Dortmund
Opta Facts:
o All five previous teams winning 3-2 away from home in the first leg of their Champions League knockout tie have progressed to the next round.
o Monaco have won 70% of their home games in the Champions League (21 out of 30). Among clubs to have hosted at least 30 games, only Real Madrid (76%), Barcelona (73%) and Bayern Munich (71%) have a better rate.
o Borussia Dortmund are the top scorers in this season’s Champions League (27 goals in nine games), with 30% of them coming in the final 15 minutes (8). In fact, Dortmund’s games have produced more goals than any other team (40 - 27 for & 13 against).
o Borussia Dortmund have lost eight of their last 11 games in the Champions League knockout stages (W3).
o 18 year-old Kylian Mbappé is the top scorer in this season’s Champions League knockout stages with four goals in three games.
Posted at 1830 BST on 18/04/17.
