Nick Hext backs Lionel Messi and goes for goals at Dortmund in Tuesday night's Champions League betting preview.
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By Nick Hext
Borussia Dortmund v Monaco (1945 BST, BT Sport 3)
Monaco’s reward for getting the better of Manchester City in the last 16 of the Champions League is a quarter-final against Bundesliga heavyweights Borussia Dortmund.
I’m surprised to see the Ligue 1 leaders as big outsiders to progress from a tie in which both sides will be fancying their chances of qualifying.
As you would expect at this stage of the Champions League, both sides are in good form with Monaco only suffering two defeats in their last 22 outings.
The 4-1 defeat against PSG in the French League Cup final will still be hurting Leonardo’s Jardim’s men but they’ve recovered with back-to-back victories to get back on track.
Monaco’s strength is clearly in attack - they scored six goals when getting through against Manchester City on away goals after drawing 6-6 on aggregate.
Jardim’s side managed three of those goals when losing 5-3 at the Etihad Stadium but they have collected wins on the road at Villarreal (in qualifying) and Tottenham during their march to the last eight.
However, this is a much tougher task for Monaco. That’s despite Dortmund entering this contest on the back of a chastening 4-1 defeat at Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich on Saturday.
That reverse will be a concern for boss Thomas Tuchel but his side are more than capable of bouncing back, as they did when beating Benfica 4-0 at the Westfalenstadion after losing 1-0 in Portugal in the first leg of their last-16 clash.
Dortmund finished 2016 with an unbeaten home record stretching 24 matches and they’ve won six and drawn one of their seven matches on their own turf this year.
That makes it fully understandable for Dortmund to be odds-on across the board for the win but I’d be surprised if it is a runaway success for the Bundesliga outfit.
I like the look of the 23/20 available with Betfair Sportsbook and Marathon Bet for over 3.5 goals in this contest.
Five of Dortmund’s eight Champions League games have got above that mark (including the incredible 8-4 win at home to Legia Warsaw in the group stage) and Monaco can’t rely on their defence to get to the last four.
Expect plenty of entertainment across both legs of this tie and start with the odds-against for four or more goals in this opening contest.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Monaco
Opta facts:
o This is the first competitive encounter between Dortmund and Monaco.
o Only one French team has beaten Dortmund on their own soil in European competition (D3 L5), it was Marseille in December 2011 (3-2).
o Meanwhile, this will be Monaco’s third competitive game against a German side this season after facing Bayer Leverkusen in the group stages, drawing 1-1 at home before losing 3-0 away.
o Dortmund have reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the third time in the last five seasons.
o Dortmund have lost only one of their eight Champions League games this season (W5 D2), it was away against Benfica in the round of 16 first leg.
o However, Dortmund have lost seven of their last 10 games in the Champions League knockout stages (W3).
Juventus v Barcelona (1945 BST, BT Sport)
The repeat of the 2015 Champions League final between Juventus and Barcelona provides plenty of intrigue in this season’s quarter-finals.
Barca won that final 3-1 in Berlin but it’s fair to say that the gap has closed between the sides since then.
Juventus remain the dominant force in Serie A but Barcelona have endured a more troublesome season as they sit behind Real Madrid in the LaLiga standings.
Barca lost 2-0 at Malaga on Saturday evening, a match in which Neymar was sent off, and that followed on from a surprise 2-1 loss on the road against Deportivo in the middle of March.
Luis Enrique’s men were also beaten 4-0 by PSG in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie but something remarkable happened next.
The 6-1 victory in the second leg at the Nou Camp secured Barca’s quarter-final spot and it incredibly featured three goals from the hosts after the 88th minute.
That could lead you to think that Barcelona’s name is on the Champions League trophy this term but they’ll have to improve to get through against Juventus.
The Serie A leaders are the 7/5 outsiders to progress from this tie but just one defeat in their last 16 outings proves that they are a side not to underestimate.
A strong defence is at the heart of Juve’s success but they conceded three goals in the 3-2 defeat against Napoli in the Coppa Italia last week so there is a way through for Enrique’s outfit.
My best bet for this match is a simple choice.
Lionel Messi is playing for Barcelona and he’s odds-against to get on the scoresheet.
There won’t be many chances to get 13/8 for Messi to net in any match given the Argentina star’s staggering record of only missing out on a goal in six of his last 25 appearances for Barca.
Messi has bagged doubles against Valencia and Sevilla in two of his last three outings and his Champions League record this term is fantastic.
The 29-year-old has netted 11 goals in his seven Champions League appearances to date so it makes perfect sense to back him to score when 13/8 is available.
Prediction: Juventus 1-1 Barcelona
Opta facts:
o Juventus and Barcelona’s last encounter was in the 2015 Champions League final, the latter winning 3-1 in Berlin. However, the Catalans have yet to beat Juventus on their own soil in European competition (D2 L2).
o Juventus have made it to the quarter-finals for the third time in the last five Champions League seasons. In that period, no other Italian club has reached the last eight of the competition.
o Juventus have won their last four games in the Champions League, the current longest run in the competition. They are the only unbeaten team this season alongside Real Madrid.
o Barcelona have won 10 of their last 13 games in the Champions League knockout stages (L3). However, they’ve also lost three of their last four away games in the k/o stages (W1), conceding nine goals.
o Barcelona are the top scorers in this season’s Champions League with 26 goals in eight games. Nine of those have come from set-pieces, also the highest tally in this season’s competition.
o Lionel Messi has scored 11 goals in this season’s Champions League, already his best tally since the 2011/12 campaign (14).
Posted at 1455 BST on 10/04/17.
