Our tipster Andy Schooler previews tonight's Champions League last-16 second legs, including Arsenal v Bayern Munich and Napoli v Real Madrid.
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Arsenal v Bayern Munich (1945 GMT, BT Sport 2, 1st leg: 1-5)
I do love the two-legged format of ‘real’ European football, one which always gives fans a glimmer of hope no matter what sort of abyss they seem to be staring into.
OK, I don’t expect Arsenal to turn this one around but it should certainly be fun watching them try.
Stubbornness has proved to be the chosen stick with which to beat Arsene Wenger for some time but the fact that it’s not his way to give up hope and simply try for a face-saving result against arguably Europe’s best team in these circumstances should be applauded.
Arsenal will at least give this a go and if they do get the rub of the green and get two goals ahead, it’s not impossible that Bayern get somewhat nervous.
It is, however, extremely unlikely - you can get 40/1 about them qualifying for the quarter-finals. Remember they face a team which has won 14 and drawn two of their last 16 games. Arsenal, on the other hand, have lost four of their last six, including the 5-1 humbling they received in the first leg.
Confidence is extremely low and whatever the truths in reports of a bust-up between Alexis Sanchez and team-mates, the Chilean’s body language of late shows all you need to know about the Gunners’ plight.
Arsenal at the top of their game could challenge Bayern but right now it’s very hard to see them being able to compete with the German giants, as evidenced three weeks ago in Munich.
Offering their supporters a glimmer of hope is the fact that Bayern have won only three and lost seven of their last 13 Champions League away games – a pretty poor record for a club of their stature.
They also have captain Philipp Lahm suspended and he joins fellow defender Jerome Boateng on the sidelines.
That, coupled with some good signs in the first half of the game in Munich (they could have led at the break), gives Arsenal plenty of hope that they can get on the scoresheet. Keeping goals out will be somewhat harder, one suspects.
With Arsenal having little choice but to commit players to attack from the first whistle, it’s easy to see Bayern picking them off. With the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Thomas Muller, Arjen Robben and the fit-again Franck Ribery to call upon, they certainly have the players to do just that.
Both teams to score is just 8/15. Given the state of the tie, 5/2 about both sides netting in the first half is worthy of consideration.
However, the bet that appeals most to me is the time of Bayern’s first goal being under bet365’s mark of 41 minutes exactly.
As already noted, Arsenal surely have to come out early here and Bayern have the quality to pounce.
Even if Arsenal don’t go for it early doors, Bayern showed in the first leg that they are a level above the Gunners and could simply dominate the game themselves.
Bayern’s opening goal in that game came after just 11 minutes and Arsenal have a strong recent trend of giving away a goal just as the game is getting started.
In their last six, they have also conceded early v Liverpool (9 mins), Chelsea (13) and Watford (10).
In the Champions League this season, they leaked a goal inside the first 20 minutes against PSG (twice), Ludogorets and Bayern.
While the majority of those games have been away from the Emirates, the quality of the opposition and the situation of the tie mean I am still happy to go with Bayern striking early, if indeed you can label the 41st minute as such.
Another bet which tempts is Granit Xhaka to be carded at 2/1 (888sport, Unibet, 32Red).
It may seem a short price but remember this is a player who has picked up three red and seven yellow cards so far this season with each of his last four games seeing the referee reach for his book.
But what really makes me think that run will continue is the state of the tie.
As Arsenal commit more men forward, Xhaka will become more and more exposed in his holding midfield role and could well find himself in some difficult situations where ‘taking one for the team' becomes a necessity.
Prediction: Arsenal 1-3 Bayern Munich
Opta facts:
o No club has progressed in a Champions League knockout tie after losing the first leg by four or more goals.
o Since the beginning of 2003/04, Arsenal have lost just 10 of their 62 home games in the Champions League, however six of those defeats have come in the knockout stages.
o This is the 12th meeting between these sides in the Champions League, Bayern have won six of the previous 11 games with Arsenal winning three (D2).
o The German side have won just one of their last six Champions League away games, losing three and drawing twice in that run; however their three defeats all came by a single goal.
o Only Lionel Messi (10) and Edinson Cavani (7) have scored more goals in the competition this season than Robert Lewandowski (6); the Polish striker has scored in just two of his last 12 away games in the Champions League however (four goals in total).
o Arjen Robben has now scored in back-to-back Champions League appearances against Arsenal; only against CSKA Moscow has he scored in more consecutive games (3).
Napoli v Real Madrid (1945 GMT, BT Sport 3, 1st leg: 1-3)
While not in a hole as deep as Arsenal’s, Napoli are certainly in trouble heading into the second leg of this tie.
While the two-legged format will always give hope to a side losing the away leg 3-1, it is the opposition which means that away goal seems less relevant than might otherwise have been the case.
Real are a team who have now scored in 46 consecutive games in all competitions – a Spanish record. Surprisingly the last team to keep them out were Manchester City in last season’s semi-final first leg.
Both teams to score helped us to a profit in the first leg but second time around you won’t even get 1/2.
The stats help show why. Six of Real last seven games (and 11 of their last 13) have seen both sides net, while for Napoli the figures are four of the last five (and 12 of the last 15).
Napoli are basically going to need a defensive masterclass or a bewilderingly good attacking one to progress but three defeats in their last five games suggest they simply aren’t in the form to do that – prior to the first leg they were unbeaten in 18.
They did claim a much-needed victory – and an impressive one at that – away to Serie A’s second-placed side Roma at the weekend and with 22-goal striker Dries Mertens in their ranks (he got both goals v Roma after a four-match drought) they do look capable of causing problems for Real in what is sure to be a cracking atmosphere at the Stadio San Paolo.
The famous stadium announcer is sure to get the place rocking in the lead-up to kick-off and the atmosphere could well help Napoli get stuck into Real early on.
Just like Bayern against Arsenal, Real clearly have the players to take advantage of any gaps left behind and with this in mind, backing both teams to score in the first half at 12/5 makes some appeal.
This has occurred in four of Real’s last seven games, including the first leg, and the situation of the tie leads to believe such an outcome is over-priced.
In the goalscorer markets, I’m going to mention Napoli’s Marko Rog, the Croatian who has caught the eye in their recent games against Juventus and Roma.
He’s had just three starts by having been given his chance recently he’s grabbed it with both hands and with confidence flowing, 7/2 about the lively attacking midfielder scoring at any time may turn out to be a good thing.
Prediction: Napoli 2-2 Real Madrid
Opta facts:
o There have been 11 previous instances of a team losing the first leg of a knockout tie 3-1 away from home; four of those sides have progressed, including the last three in a row.
o Real Madrid have progressed from each of their last eight Champions League ties in the last 16 or beyond when they’ve won the first leg.
o Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 11 Champions League matches (W6, D5); should they avoid defeat in this game it would represent their longest run without defeat in the Champions League or European Cup.
o Napoli have lost just one of their 10 Champions League home games (W7, D2), however their one defeat came this season (2-3 v Besiktas).
o Real Madrid have lost just one of their last nine away games in the Champions League (W4, D4).
o Karim Benzema has found the net in each of his last four Champions League games, scoring five goals in total; he has never scored in five consecutive games in the competition.
o Cristiano Ronaldo has failed to score in his last five Champions League games and has not found the net in 523 minutes in total; since scoring his first Champions League goal in 2007 only once has he gone more than five games without a goal (6 games, 2008).
o Six of Napoli’s last nine Champions League goals have been either scored (4) or assisted (2) by Dries Mertens.
Posted at 1735 GMT on 06/03/17.
