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Champions League tips: Top goalscorer preview and best bets
Europe's elite will be battling it out to finish as the coveted Champions League top goalscorer. Liam Kelly has three selections at big prices.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts e.w. Darwin Núñez to be top goalscorer at 25/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, Boylesports 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Sadio Mané to be top goalscorer at 33/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Christopher Nkunku to be top goalscorer at 50/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports, Parimatch 1/4 1,2,3,4)
The key protagonists to feature in the fight for Champions League top goalscorer are, as you would imagine, all very familiar names.
Seven stars have earned quotes in the single figures across the bookmakers' odds — Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, Karim Benzema, Robert Lewandowski, Lionel Messi, Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané.
Granted, it's extremely difficult to dismiss any of them when it comes to scoring goals in elite European football, but in the search for value in this season's edition, various factors must be considered.
Champions League Top Goalscorer 2022/23 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 4/1 - Erling Haaland
- 6/1 - Kylian Mbappé
- 7/1 - Karim Benzema
- 8/1 - Robert Lewandowski
- 10/1 - Lionel Messi, Neymar, Sadio Mané
- 12/1 - Mohamed Salah
Odds correct at 1200 BST (01/09/22)
Firstly, Haaland is too short to make appeal in my opinion.
Of course, he could run away with it for a dominant and often free-scoring Manchester City side, but, at a best-priced 4/1 with Sky Bet, the Norwegian's injury history is a slight worry given the depth of competition for this award.
Mbappé has plenty of competition for goals in his own Paris Saint-Germain team, with Messi and Neymar capable of scoring plenty. Distribution of goals may end the chances for each of the three, alongside the fact PSG cannot be trusted in the knockout rounds at this point.
Benzema, last season's winner with 15 goals, looks to still be in top shape at 34, but Real Madrid will find it extremely difficult to replicate their 2021/22 triumph, facing a stiffer task domestically and in Europe.
It is a much-improved Barcelona that appear set to push Real to the limit in La Liga, adding scoring extraordinaire Lewandowski to their deep attacking ranks in the summer. He finished second to Benzema in Champions League scoring last term, netting 13 for Bayern Munich — a Barca opponent in the consensus 'group of death' this campaign.
Indeed, facing his former side and Inter in the group stage is enough to make me hesitant on the price of Lewandowski.
However, despite the draw, I can't let the 33/1 available only with bet365 slide for his Bayern 'replacement' SADIO MANÉ.
Offered up at much shorter prices elsewhere, it's worth chancing Senegal's record scorer to strike against tough opposition.
Mané has started the season in good form, seemingly fitting into Julian Nagelsmann's style rather well. He's scored three times in five Bundesliga matches, averaging 1.06 expected goals (xG) per 95 minutes in a team that looks destined to create a raft of chances.
Old ally Mo Salah is the only remaining name on offer at single figures in places to be mentioned, and his credentials are obvious, but it is the Egyptian winger's new Liverpool teammate that catches the eye at a general 25/1.
DARWIN NÚÑEZ quickly established himself as the probable striking starter for the Reds before seeing red against Crystal Palace. Still, Núñez has recorded 2.78 xG in just 187 minutes in the Premier League, making appeal at twice the price of Salah.
Liverpool should dominate their group against Ajax, Napoli and Rangers, and if their attacking numbers in the Premier League thus far translate to Europe, Núñez can take advantage.
Núñez has some pedigree in the Champions League already, scoring six times for Benfica in their 2021/22 UCL campaign. On a much better team that should advance to the latter stages, more can be expected from the 23-year-old Uruguayan.
Looking deeper into the market, one other name stands out as a bet at 50/1.
CHRISTOPHER NKUNKU has excelled in the competition, too, netting seven for RB Leipzig last season — just one behind the place money.
RB Leipzig failed to make it to the knockout rounds last season, beaten to qualification by Manchester City and PSG which only makes his accomplishments even more impressive.
Now, with a favourable draw against Real Madrid, Celtic and Shakhtar Donetsk, Nkunku has a good opportunity to better that return.
Still occupying the advanced role he took up last season at the club, Nkunku has started this campaign in scintillating form, scoring four goals from 3.53 xG in five Bundesliga matches.
At 50s, Nkunku just can't be ignored.
The usual suspects may well run away with things but there is enough to suggest that a few at bigger odds are worth risking, albeit with small stakes.
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