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Champions League tips: Outright preview with best bets for 2022/23 season
Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets in his outright preview of the 22/23 Champions League - priced up at 13/2 and 80/1.
Football betting tips: Champions League
3pts e.w. Bayern Munich to win the Champions League at 13/2 (General 1/2 1-2)
1pt e.w. AC Milan to win the Champions League at 80/1 (Sky Bet 1/2 1-2)
The Champions League market has followed the same pattern as recent seasons. Manchester City and PSG remain the most fancied as they look to end their wait to get their hands on this trophy.
Both have come close, both have been denied in finals. However, it's the latter who has 'suffered' the most in terms of betting this season - some firms offering Liverpool at shorter prices.
Champions League 22/23 winner (via Sky Bet)
- Manchester City - 5/2
- Liverpool - 5/1
- Paris Saint-Germain - 5/1
- Bayern Munich - 13/2
- Real Madrid - 9/1
- Chelsea - 14/1
- Tottenham - 14/1
For City, questions will always remain about their ability in this competition but it is - without doubt - one of the strongest squads in world football.
It's slightly tricky to get on board with them though. They clearly have the talent to finally enjoy success here, but we have had these thoughts on multiple occasions in the past.
It's also the fact they are 5/2, going into 9/4 in places, and there's just not enough interest to get involved over the course of a season.
The 9/4 is an implied probability of 30.8%, with 5/2 going at 28.6%. That is big for a side who have had their issues in Europe under this manager in very recent years.
Another strong campaign for Bayern
Instead, looking around at other European champions provides value, with the 13/2 on BAYERN MUNICH TO WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE looking strong given their dominance in Germany.
I've looked at Bayern over the past few seasons, but the strength and talent that this squad constantly displays always puts them in a good position when it comes to European football.
There is also the fact that they look like they may have found another level in the opening weeks of the Bundesliga season. Two of their first four have been won by six-goal margins.
One of those came against Eintracht Frankfurt - who line up in Group D. Bayern have posted 12.84 xG across those first four with an average of +2.45 xGD per game.
They are in an interesting looking Group C - joined by Barcelona and Inter. Czech side Viktoria Plzeň must have looked on in disbelief when their name was read out at the draw.
Robert Lewandowski is gone, but as the early attacking numbers show, this has hardly been an issue. Sadio Mane's joined and has been featuring as the centre forward so far.
Factor in the support from Leroy Sane and Serge Gnabry, while Thomas Müller will always provide assists. Kingsley Coman's season has already started in productive fashion.
Add the exciting Jamal Musiala in and it's a remarkably strong attack once again - with Mathys Tel a further option to call upon.
No side in Europe's top-five leagues have posted a better xG total across their opening fixtures than Bayern - that includes a PSG side who have scored 18 in four outings and Liverpool who won a game 9-0.
Then there's the rest of the squad which boasts serious depth. Joshua Kimmich and Marcel Sabitzer have formed their midfield duo so far but Leon Goretzka will make an impact when he returns from injury.
Ryan Gravenberch has been another arrival for the central area, while Matthijs de Ligt battles Lucas Hernandez and Dayot Upamecano for starting positions in defence.
This team looks truly built to what Julian Nagelsmann requires - the coach who defied the odds to guide Leipzig to the semi-finals stage in 2020.
This is a club and a group used to winning, the importance of that cannot be understated when it comes to the chance of success in this competition.
Italy's long wait to end?
This competition hasn't been the best to Italian clubs in recent seasons. Inter were the last side to win the Champions League - that happening all the way back in 2010.
Juventus have made the final in 'recent' years but Serie A's wait for a European champion has gone on. This might, just might, be the year they finally have one.
The 80/1 available on AC MILAN TO WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE looks surprisingly big given they won the Italian league last season - that pays out at 40/1 if they reach the final.
They were unfortunate to be placed in a group with Atletico Madrid, Liverpool and Porto in 21/22 - an outcome that saw them finish bottom of Group B with four points from their six games.
However, as the league played out, it wasn't the worst result for them. This time around, in a far more favourable Group E, they have a strong chance of progressing to the knockout stages.
Chelsea are their biggest threat to top spot with the remainder of the group being made up by Dinamo Zagreb and Salzburg.
Given the mixed fortunes for the Blues early on in the Premier League, this may become a tougher campaign than they were perhaps expecting - even with their big summer spending.
Milan may have lost some big names, but they've reacted by making some notable signings of their own.
Charles De Ketelaere's arrival can be viewed as a significant coup given his potential, while Divock Origi's ability to shine in big games could well become vital - more so than the signing appears to be on face value.
Just how they fully adjust to Franck Kessié's departure for Barcelona remains to be seen, but there is enough depth in the midfield area to provide competition.
The only area you could perhaps point to is centre-back, although Malick Thiaw - signed from Schalke - has a decent amount of senior football level despite being just 21. There's also Fikayo Tomori and Simon Kjaer as established starters.
That said, no side conceded fewer in Serie A last season than Milan, while only Napoli posted a better xGA total and that was minimal (36.9 to 37.3).
Beating Chelsea to top spot would boost their chances of success in this tournament - and the Infogol model gives them a 34.8% chance of doing just that in Group E.
That is far greater than the implied probability of 22.2% from best odds of 7/2 that they win the group. History shows us that those who top their group have a better chance of winning the competition.
Over the last 19 seasons - this being since the 'two group' system was dropped for the current format - 13 of the 19 winners also won their group. Six did not.
However, very recent history is on the side of those second place teams, with three of the six coming in the last six years. There are two things we can take from this.
The first is that, historically, group winners have a better chance of succeeding. The second is that, should they finish runners-up, recent history has proven that those in second can do it.
The odds look too big, especially when we consider that Inter can be found at 40s and they are in a tougher group. I Rossoneri provide the interest as the outsider who could go far in the competition.
Odds correct as of 1230 (01/09/22)
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