Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Under 3.5 Asian total cards at 9/10 (bet365)
0.25pts No first goalscorer and Under 0.5 cards at 450/1 (Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 18/1
- Both teams to score 'no'
- Barcelona 23+ shots
- Raphinha 4+ shots
Are Inter imploding?
Back-to-back domestic defeats has seen their cushion at the top of Serie A disappear. The latest loss against Roma, coupled with Napoli’s win, leaves them three points off the pace.
Sunday’s defeat was the culmination of a miserable few weeks since booking their spot in the Champions League semi-finals.
The Nerazzurri have now lost their last three games without scoring, which includes a 3-0 defeat to local rivals Milan in a Coppa Italia semi-final second leg.
It goes a little way to explaining why Simone Inzaghi’s side are the longest-priced semi-finalist to lift the Champions League at 9/2 (Sky Bet) but I don’t think they should be completely written off.
Inter have only conceded five goals in 12 European games, keeping clean sheets against Manchester City, RB Leipzig, Monaco and Arsenal.
The visitors could also be bolstered by the return of Denzel Dumfries although that could be mitigated by the loss of defender Benjamin Pavard, who is a doubt after spraining his ankle on Sunday.
Hosts Barcelona have injury issues of their own.
Robert Lewendowski has scored 40 club goals this term but is out of action with a hamstring issue and could even miss the return leg.
Hansi Flick’s side are the favourites in this competition though and are on course for a quadruple.
Having already won the Spanish Super Cup and Copa del Rey, Barca are four points clear at the top of La Liga and 1/2 to reach the final in this competition.
What are the best bets?
Styles make fights and at the Camp Nou, this is a battle of two complete polar opposites.
Flick’s Barca are all about attack. Inter like to contain and counter.
The hosts have scored the most goals in the Champions League (37) and the most goals in their domestic division (89).
The visitors have kept the most continental clean sheets (8) and conceded the fewest goals (5).
Tactically, Wednesday’s game is not too difficult to predict, it will essentially be attack against defence with Inter trying to expose Barca’s high line on the counter attack.
Betting angles are a little trickier to settle on but siding with a lack of cards seems the most sensible route.
Clement Turpin is the referee and he has brandished one card or fewer in four of six Champions League appearances this term.
He gave out zero cards in the first leg knockout game between Manchester City and Real Madrid and one card in the first leg round of 16 tie between Los Blancos and Atletico Madrid.
At 9/10, backing UNDER 3.5 ASIAN TOTAL CARDS is the bet. It has clicked in each of Barcelona’s last three Champions League games.
Under 2.5 goals also looks overpriced considering the occasion and the absence of Lewandowski.
Instead of putting a couple of points on the line by opposing the competition's greatest attack, I think it is worth having a small punt on something at a much bigger price.
Combining NO FIRST GOALSCORER with NO CARDS via Paddy Power pays out at just under 450/1, it will make for an uncomfortable watch though.
Team news
Ferran Torres will likely spearhead the hosts' attack in Lewandowski's absence with a supporting cast of Raphinha, Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal.
The hosts are also sweating on the fitness of Alejandro Balde, their first choice left-back. Gerard Martin should start at full-back if Balde is unavailable.
Marc-Andre ter Stegen was on the bench for Barcelona’s Copa del Rey win on Saturday but Wojciech Szczesny is expected to continue in goal.
Inter's Marcus Thuram has missed the last three games with a thigh injury and is a doubt here.
Mehdi Taremi should partner Lautaro Martinez if Thuram is not fit but Inzaghi could also turn to Joaquin Correa or Marko Arnautovic.
Dumfries returned to action against Roma on Sunday after an eight-game absence and is expected to start at wing-back. Pavard is a doubt.
Predicted line-ups
Barcelona: Szczesny; Kounde, Cubarsi, Martinez, Martin; De Jong, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Raphinha; Torres
Inter: Sommer; Bisseck, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Martinez, Thuram
Match facts
- Barcelona and Internazionale have faced each other on 16 previous occasions in Europe, with the Spanish side winning exactly half of those (W8 D5 L3). They are winless in the most recent two, however, which came in the group stages of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League (0-1 away, 3-3 at home).
- This will be just the second time Barcelona and Internazionale have met in the knockout stages of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, with both coming precisely at the semi-final stage. The previous one – played in 2009-10 – saw José Mourinho’s Inter eliminate the reigning champions 3-2 on aggregate (3-1 at the Giuseppe Meazza, 0-1 at the Camp Nou).
- Barcelona are unbeaten in their six home games against Internazionale in the UEFA Champions League (W5 D1). Those five home wins against them are their joint-most against an opponent in UEFA Champions League/European Cup (also five v AC Milan), while the only team they’ve hosted more often in the competition without losing is Chelsea (7).
- Barcelona haven’t lost any of their six home matches in the UEFA Champions League this season (W5 D1), while scoring 21 goals in the process. Only in the 1999/2000 edition have they ever netted more at home in a single European Cup/UEFA Champions League campaign (29 in eight games).
- Barcelona are averaging 3.1 goals per game under Hansi Flick in the UEFA Champions League; the second-most by a manager-club duo with 10+ games, after Hansi Flick’s Bayern Munich (3.2). Meanwhile, Internazionale could equal the record for most clean sheets by an Italian team in a Champions League campaign (currently on eight), held by AC Milan in 2004-05 and Juventus in 2016-17 (both 9).
- Internazionale manager Simone Inzaghi is set to take charge of his 50th UEFA Champions League match here, becoming the seventh Italian coach to reach this milestone; the most for any nation (currently level with Spain on six). His 26 wins are already the most by an Italian manager through their first 50 Champions League matches (one ahead of Marcello Lippi, 25).
- Ahead of his 25th appearance, Barcelona’s Raphinha has been directly involved in 26 goals in the UEFA Champions League to date (15 goals, 11 assists in 24 appearances). Only two players in the competition’s history have more goal contributions through their first 25 games: Erling Haaland (36) and Luis Suárez (28).
- Lautaro Martínez has scored in each of his last five appearances for Internazionale in the UEFA Champions League. If he finds the net here, he’ll be just the second South American player to score in six consecutive outings in the competition, after Edinson Cavani (seven between November 2016 and October 2017).
- Barcelona wingers Lamine Yamal and Raphinha have combined for more goals than any other duo in the UEFA Champions League this season (5), while they’ve also created the most chances between one another of any teammate pairing (16 – eight each).
- Internazionale’s Nicolò Barella has averaged more progressive passes per 90 (7.1) than any other player in the UEFA Champions League this season (min. 500 minutes played). Similarly, he has the highest progressive pass percentage of any central midfielder in the competition this term (12% - also min. 500 minutes).
Odds correct at 1345 BST (29/04/25)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
