Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Morgan Rogers 1+ foul committed and 1+ foul won at 19/20 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
BuildABet @ 8/1
- Morgan Rogers to commit 1+ foul
- Morgan Rogers to win 1+ foul
- Axel Disasi 2+ tackles
- Aston Villa win
- Both teams to score 'no'
A Villa vs Club Brugge (Agg: 3-1)
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
TV: TNT Sports 2
Home 3/5 | Draw 16/5 | Away 19/5
After a vintage European away performance in Brugge, Aston Villa have a 94.3% chance of advancing to the quarter-finals of the Champions League according to Opta's predictor.
It's hard to see a way back for Brugge, a side who are at their best when allowed to sit and counter. Chasing the tie against such a dangerous counter-attacking team should only end badly, and that's before taking into account Villa's home form.
Unai Emery's side have lost just twice at home in 19 games across all competitions this season, once to Arsenal in the first home league game of the campaign and the other with a changed XI against Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup.
What are the best bets?
Given the attacking options at Unai Emery's disposal, the fact that MORGAN ROGERS seemingly plays every single minute has to be a plus from a betting perspective.
The Villa forward has had a sensational season, registering 12 goals and six assists, but I'm drawn to his foul lines and will happily back him to both COMMIT 1+ FOUL and WIN 1+ FOUL in this second leg.
Rogers gives as good as he gets, highlighted by the fact he has made 53 fouls and won 53 fouls across all competitions this season, averaging 1.42 per 90 for both.
It's a bet that has won in 23 of his 39 starts (58% of the time) including the first leg, so the 19/20 looks value in a game Villa will want to put the clamps on from the off.
Brugge will have to be on the front foot, leaving space for Rogers to operate and run past defenders which will increase the chances he gets felled, while the Englishman will be pressing from the off and can be a little too eager into tackles.
Team news
Aston Villa are getting healthier, with only Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley still out. Marco Asensio and Emiliano Martinez should shake off their knocks to feature.
Pau Torres is back to full fitness and could start ahead of Tyrone Mings, though Donyell Malen and Andres Garcia will both start on the bench.
Club Brugge could again be without Joaquin Seys and Bjorn Meijer, but are fully fit otherwise.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa: Martinez; Disasi, Konsa, Mings, Digne; McGinn, Tielemans; Bailey, Rogers, Rashford; Watkins.
Club Brugge: Mignolet; Sabbe, Ordonez, Mechele, De Cuyper; Onyedika, Jashari; Talbi, Vanaken, Tzolis; Jutgla.
Match facts
- Aston Villa last hosted a Belgian side in any European competition back in April 1982 in the European Cup semi-final against Anderlecht, winning 1-0 with a goal from Tony Morley on their way to winning the trophy.
- Club Brugge have never won away in England in major European competition in 14 attempts (D2 L12), losing their last five visits. Only Anderlecht (18) and Dynamo Kyiv (15) have played more in England without ever winning.
- Aston Villa could become the ninth different English side to qualify for a UEFA Champions League quarter-final, which would be the most teams from a single nation to have done so (England currently level with Spain on eight).
- Aston Villa have progressed from 12 of their previous 14 major European ties when they’ve won the first leg – the others were in the 1990-91 UEFA Cup vs Inter (2-0 first leg, 0-3 second leg) and 1998-99 UEFA Cup vs Celta Vigo (1-0 first leg, 3-1 second leg).
- Club Brugge have lost the first leg at home in six previous major European ties and have been eliminated on each occasion. Overall, they’ve been knocked out in nine of their last 10 ties when losing the first leg, with the other in the Conference League last season in the last 16 against Molde (1-2 first leg, 3-0 second leg).
- Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has only lost three of his last 19 home games in the UEFA Champions League (W11 D5), across spells with four different clubs. Indeed, he’s unbeaten in his four home matches in the competition in charge of his current club (W3 D1).
- Club Brugge won their previous away game in the UEFA Champions League, beating Atalanta 3-1 in the play-off round in February. They’ve never previously won consecutive away games in the European Cup/Champions League.
- Aston Villa are looking to become the first side to reach the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League in their debut season since Atalanta in 2019-20. Five English teams have achieved that – Chelsea in 1999-00, Leeds in 2000-01 (semi-final), Liverpool in 2001-02, Spurs in 2010-11 and Leicester in 2016-17.
- Marco Asensio has scored 10 UEFA Champions League goals in 50 games as a substitute (both more than any other player), netting Aston Villa’s third goal from the spot in the first leg. As a starter in 20 games, Asensio has scored three goals from 46 shots (6.5%), compared to 10 goals from 49 shots as a sub (20.4%).
- Hans Vanaken could make his 50th UEFA Champions League appearance in this game and would be the ninth Belgian player to play 50 games. He’ll be the first Club Brugge player to make 50 Champions League appearances; he has played in every single game for the club since the 2016-17 campaign, with only Lautaro Martínez for Inter (51 apps) on a longer current run of consecutive games for a club.
Odds correct at 1815 GMT (10/03/25)
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