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Champions League betting tips: Last 16
1.5pts e.w. Inter to win the Champions League at 12/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
2pts Bayer Leverkusen to qualify vs Bayern Munich at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Benfica to qualify vs Barcelona at 7/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Outright
The beauty of this new Champions League format is we already know the path each team must take to reach the final, so can now plot things out and see who may have favourable draws and who could be value to win the whole thing as a result.
Real Madrid are the current favourites to win the competition at a best price of 7/2 but face a potentially daunting run. First they must beat Atletico Madrid, and then likely Arsenal just to make the semis. If the odds are to be believed, there they'll face Liverpool.
Second favourites Barcelona (9/2) have, on paper anyway, a kinder run to the semi-finals, with Benfica in the last 16 and either Dortmund or Lille in the quarters, but given their defensive issues I wouldn't be surprised if they were upset en route.
Liverpool are certainly worth a look at 11/2, and would probably be tournament favourites had they drawn Benfica rather than PSG.
Their easing schedule with no FA Cup, and the fact they have a big lead at the top of the Premier League are strong reasons to back them, but PSG are too strong an opponent for it to be worth chancing, with an upset not out of the question given how well Les Parisiens are playing.
Arsenal (13/2) are easily avoided, as are Bayern Munich (7/1).
INTER get my vote at 12/1 TO WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE and I'm taking each-way, which pays out if they reach the final.
The 2023 runners-up were beaten by Atletico at this stage last season but are a stronger side now, and will be a tough opponent for anyone in the knockouts.
Inter have the kindest of draws in the last 16, taking on Feyenoord, before facing either Bayern or Bayer Leverkusen, sides they'll fancy their chances against. Leverkusen did beat them in the league phase in Germany but that was a 0-0 game until a very late winner from a corner.
Defensively they are sound, and the Italians are well set up to travel in Europe and frustrate some of the continent's best attacking teams - just ask Manchester City, who failed to score against them at the Etihad in September when they had a full complement.
They look overpriced in the market and are worth backing.
Feyenoord (11/2) vs Inter (1/10)
- First leg - Wednesday, March 5
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 11
Feyenoord caused an upset in the last round by eliminating Inter's city rivals Milan, and have since appointed Robin van Persie as their new permanent manager.
He faces a daunting task in this tie though, with Inter an extremely solid proposition. It would be a huge surprise to see anything other than progression from the Italians, and they are the shortest-priced team to do so in this round.
Based on underlying data, Feyenoord are the worst team to have made it to this stage of the competition, so it should be routine for Inter.
Selection - No bet
Bayern Munich (4/9) vs Bayer Leverkusen (13/8)
- First leg - Wednesday, March 5
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 11
BAYER LEVERKUSEN are a huge price TO QUALIFY against a Bayern Munich team who continue to flatter to deceive under Vincent Kompany.
The Bavarian giants needed a stoppage-time goal to avoid extra time against Celtic in the play-off round, looking poor for most of that two-legged tie against a team nowhere near Leverkusen's level.
Both sides have tough away league fixtures in the game before the first leg and favourable home games in between the two UCL matches, so neither has an advantage there.
While both squads are relatively healthy, Bayern could be without Joshua Kimmich which would be a blow.
Head-to-head wise, Leverkusen are unbeaten in six against Bayern, winning in the DFB-Pokal this season and drawing both league games, though the most recent meeting was utter domination from Xabi Alonso's side.
They were frustratingly held to a goalless draw at the BayArena despite limiting Bayern to just two shots over 90 minutes equating to 0.05 xG, while racking up 2.16 xG themselves.
Sky Bet have priced Leverkusen as having a 38% chance of advancing and I think that figure is far too low, with this tie much closer to 50/50 in my eyes, so I'll happily take Alonso's men, who have great recent pedigree in cup competitions having won the Pokal and reached the final of the Europa League last season.
Selection - Bayer Leverkusen to qualify
Benfica (7/2) vs Barcelona (1/6)
- First leg - Wednesday, March 5
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 11
This tie should be an awful lot of fun. These sides only know how to attack, which is why their meeting in the league phase ended 5-4, with Barcelona coming from behind to win.
Neither team can defend, which could mean we witness two chaotic and goal-filled games, increasing the chances of randomness and therefore bringing the upset into play.
Benfica are, in my mind, a less good version of Barcelona, but should this two-legged tie turn into a shootout as expected, variance could be in their favour given the amount of chances they create, so much so I'm willing to back them TO QUALIFY at 7/2.
It may seem like a bit of a reach, but over the course of the league phase these two sides played to a very similar level, with Barca averaging +1.25 xGD per game and Benfica +0.89 xGD per game.
The game in Lisbon fished with an xG score of 3.34 - 3.63, ramped up by a combined three penalties, but it shows that there was little between them, and on another night the Portuguese side could have won. They were 4-2 up after all, and at 4-4 before the Barca winner, they should have had a penalty.
More of the same could lead to exactly that, though I am well aware that this could come back to bite me if Barca run out 10-3 aggregate winners...
Benfica have a full week's rest ahead of the first leg in Lisbon - not playing at the weekend - which can't be a bad thing either.
Selection - Benfica to qualify
PSG (13/8) vs Liverpool (4/9)
- First leg - Wednesday, March 5
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 11
A few months ago PSG were the laughing stock of Europe as they struggled through the league phase. Now they are a team to be feared and a very awkward opponent for Liverpool - one they would have rather avoided at this stage.
Luis Enrique's side have been obliterating nearly everyone since early December, winning 16 of an unbeaten 18 in that time, scoring a whopping 54 goals (3.0 per game), including 10 over two legs against Brest in the play-off round.
The three reasons I am hesitant to back them as quite hefty outsiders are that their defence hasn't been tested by an elite opponent in that time, Liverpool are arguably the best team on the continent, and the Reds' schedule is favourable, having the weekend off ahead of the first leg and facing bottom side Southampton at home in between the two.
Ultimately, it's going to be a no bet, but I wouldn't be surprised were we to witness an upset.
Selection - No bet
Posted at 1610 GMT on 02/03/25
Already advised
1pt Club Brugge to qualify vs Aston Villa at 5/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Club Brugge (5/2) vs Aston Villa (2/7)
- First leg - Tuesday, March 4
- Second leg - Wednesday, March 12
Aston Villa will have been overjoyed by their draw for the last 16. That is until they remember Club Brugge beat them in the league phase, admittedly somewhat bizarrely thanks to Tyrone Mings' peculiar handball, and that the Belgians eliminated a very good Atalanta team in the play-offs.
It would take a very brave man to oppose an Unai Emery team in Europe, but a brave man I am, as I think CLUB BRUGGE are being underestimated by the market and should be backed TO QUALIFY at 5/2.
The odds imply the Belgians have a 29% chance of progressing to Villa's 71%, and I think those two numbers are too far apart.
Villa have mounting injury issues, especially defensively, and a hectic schedule as they fight on all fronts. While they do boast the better players, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Emery's men once again struggle to break down a stubborn defensive unit.
Brugge allowed just 1.08 xGA per game in the league phase, and then 1.05 xGA in the first leg of their play-off against Atalanta before surviving an onslaught in the second leg. In the league meeting between these two sides, a much stronger Villa side than the one that will take to the field for the first leg of the last 16 barely laid a glove on the Belgians, mustering just eight shots equating to 0.42 xG.
Add into this that Villa have been really poor travellers since November, losing nine of 12 away games across all competitions, and an upset could well be on the cards, especially if Brugge can get a lead in the first leg in Belgium.
Selection - Club Brugge to qualify
Dortmund (8/11) vs Lille (Evs)
- First leg - Tuesday, March 4
- Second leg - Wednesday, March 12
This is one of the tighter ties of the round according to the market, and I tend to agree.
There are so many uncertainties around both teams that it's hard to confidently get onside with either.
Dortmund are under new management, while Lille were the biggest over performers in the league phase, finishing seventh despite accumulating the 27th most expected points.
The French side have taken some huge scalps in Europe this season (Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid), so are capable, but it's a no bet for me.
Selection - No bet
PSV (10/3) vs Arsenal (1/5)
- First leg - Tuesday, March 4
- Second leg - Wednesday, March 12
It wouldn't be a surprise to see Arsenal's season unravel given their absences at the top of the pitch, but even so it's difficult to see an upset here.
PSV only just got past an average Juventus team in the last round and made the most of a kind schedule to make it into the top 24.
They are a decent enough attacking team, but defensively leave a lot to be desired, so with Arsenal's strength lying in defence, it would be a surprise to see PSV scoring enough over two legs to advance.
Obviously, I'm not going to tip Arsenal at 1/5. No bet.
Selection - No bet
Real Madrid (1/2) vs Atletico Madrid (6/4)
- First leg - Tuesday, March 4
- Second leg - Wednesday, March 12
A mouthwatering Madrid derby.
The most decorated Champions League club in history, Real, against the side who have been the bridesmaids more than once, Atletico.
It should be a cracker, and I fully expect this tie to be incredibly tight with very little between them at the moment. Real's new version of the Galacticos are battling hard with their plucky underdog neighbours in La Liga, and both league meetings ended 1-1.
Diego Simeone's men are in fact unbeaten in eight head-to-head meetings in 90 minutes, losing just one of the last 10, though the problem is they've won just twice in that time, with seven draws across various competitions, including the last five.
Undoubtedly Atletico are the more consistent defensive team, but Real have by far and away the most match-winners, and usually that's what Champions League nights boil down to.
It's the rabbit out of the hat that Real just keep pulling, be it Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo or Jude Bellingham, someone always comes up with a big moment when it matters, meaning it's hard to back against Los Blancos.
That is especially the case as they are getting healthier, with both Antonio Rudiger and David Alaba back fit again, and while Dani Carvajal is out long-term, replacement right-back Lucas Vazquez is back meaning Fede Valverde can play in his more familiar role.
I won't be betting against them, especially with Simeone's men having the tougher schedule in La Liga over the next fortnight too, taking on fourth-placed Athletic Bilbao before visiting Getafe, a city rivalry that has been fierce for a long time.
Real head to Betis before hosting Rayo at the Bernabeu in between the two European dates.
Selection - No bet
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