Football betting tips: Champions League
3pts Celtic to finish 9-24 in the League Stage at 7/4 (William Hill)
1pt e.w. Atletico Madrid to win the Champions League at 33/1 (BetVictor 1,2 1/2)
1pt e.w. Raphinha to have the most assists at 33/1 (bet365 1,2,3,4 1/4)
1pt e.w. Antoine Griezmann to have the most assists at 50/1 (bet365 1,2,3,4 1/4)
- Tom Carnduff returned +38pts profit in his 23/24 outright Champions League preview, advising winners Real Madrid at 8/1 and landing place money for Antoine Griezmann to be top scorer at 80/1.
I love the Champions League, I think I'll love the new format even more.
What is this new beginning? I'll come to it shortly, but it looks absolutely brilliant on paper. One big league, eight different opponents for every team and more games involving the very best.
There's the usual backlash that follows any change - the old man yells at cloud newspaper clipping from The Simpsons comes to mind - but this does look like a step in the right direction for a competition that needed freshening up.
The proposed European Super League will have been a factor, a big one at that, but UEFA may have come up with something much better than the previous thing which was already viewed as the best by many.
In terms of the outright betting, it's an interesting one. It's tricky but it's exciting. Last season's preview returned +38pts profit which I was naturally delighted with and I'm hoping for more of the same despite a much different competition.
Three approaches this time, all of which look good value to me.
What's the new Champions League format?
Ok then, a quick outline of the new format as you're likely to have seen it elsewhere.
Gone are the four-team groups of the past and everyone is now in one league, with the addition of four more to make it up to 36 in total.
A new era begins.
ā UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) August 29, 2024
The best club competition in the world just got better.#UCLdraw || #UCL pic.twitter.com/XWcKlgrpLd
Every team plays four games at home and four away, but these are all against different opponents. As has been the case previously, clubs were seeded into four pots, this time around you were drawn against two opponents from each of those pots.
So you play two teams from pot one, two teams from pot two, two teams from pot three and two teams from pot four. You can't avoid what are, on paper at least, a minimum of two 'tough' fixtures.
A computer decided the opponents - Gianluigi Buffon drew the teams out in the traditional style while Cristiano Ronaldo had to smile through the pain of relegation to simply 'pressing a button' - and you couldn't play anyone from your own association or more than two teams from another at this stage.
The group stage goes through until the end of January, and progression is decided by your finishing position in the 36-team league after eight games:
- Finishing 1st to 8th advances you to the round of 16 as a seeded team
- Finishing 9th to 16th advances you to the knockout play-offs as a seeded team
- Finishing 17th to 24th advances you to the knockout play-offs as a non-seeded team
- Finishing 25th to 36th eliminates you from the competition - there is no dropping down to the Europa League
So we have an additional knockout round of the play-offs, with the winner of the two-legged match-ups progressing as non-seeded teams to the round of 16.
What's the best approach?
What is the required points total to progress? With a new format comes uncertainty but we can try and look back at recent history to give us a rough idea.
Of course, we must factor in how it was before and the various things that went into that. Final games may have had little on them for certain teams but that isn't likely to be the case this time around given the numbers in one big division.
So, using points per game averages over the past three Champions League seasons, worked out by adding tallies together to form 32-team leagues, we can guess that the following number of points are needed for each milestone:
- To finish 8th or above, a team is likely to need 17pts
- To finish 24th or above, a team is likely to need 7pts
I'm only using it as a rough guideline to help me try and navigate through what is effectively a new competition.
ā Home and away opponents for Pot 1 teams š āļø#UCLdraw pic.twitter.com/4bwEU4zCqq
ā UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) August 29, 2024
Across the past three editions, only six teams from 96 have enjoyed a 'perfect' group stage (six wins from six), those being: Manchester City (23/24), Real Madrid (23/24), Bayern Munich (22/23 & 21/22), Ajax (21/22) and Liverpool (21/22).
There's every chance a couple do the same here but a team can still progress in a good spot with a defeat or two. Six wins from eight is the marker that most with high ambitions should be aiming for.
On the flip side, Rangers (22/23), Viktoria Plzen (22/23) and Besiktas (21/22) are the only three to fail to register a group stage point across this period. A 3% figure likely to be even lower given the additional two games for every team.
So if you're getting involved in the 'team to finish bottom of the League Stage' market, don't be too disheartened if they gain points in a couple of their outings.
Atleti's time to shine
I can't help but always be drawn towards ATLETICO MADRID when looking at the Champions League - it's usually driven by wondering if this is finally their year.
Diego Simeone's men were beaten finalists in 2014 and 2016, with three of their last five seasons in Europe's elite competition returning quarter-final appearances.
Ideally, I want a team who will finish in the top eight of the League Stage when looking at my WINNER. It won't be a disaster if not, but it definitely helps.
The group fixtures are good enough for them and there's plenty of points to be won. They may have to travel to PSG on Matchday 4 but home games against Leipzig, Lille and Slovan Bratislava will be viewed as more than winnable, while they'll fancy their chances in trips to Salzburg and Sparta Prague.
In theory, Atletico are a team that should be built for competition football. They consistently boast strong defensive showings in Spain's top flight and possess a remarkable ability to make a game beyond frustrating for their opponents when they need it to be.
Once again, this is a squad that looks capable of competing. They may have lost Joao Felix and Alvaro Morata this summer but the additions of Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth replace them, with Robin Le Normand and Conor Gallagher signalling another summer of big spending.
There's options to play with as Simeone provides varieties to his back-three system. They don't have to be fixed in one way of operating which is limited by the personnel within the squad.
At home, they're strong in this competition. They're unbeaten in their last ten Champions League games in front of their own supporters, a record of six wins and four draws.
Beyond that, it remains remarkably impressive. Liverpool and Milan are the only two teams to secure wins at Atletico's ground in their last 26 home games in Europe's top competition - both of those by one-goal margins.
From the 26 mentioned there, 14 of them ended in victory in 90 minutes. Some draws came against the likes of Manchester City and Manchester United (both 2022) as well as Bayern Munich (2020).
There's no doubt that the away returns need to improve but it puts them in a great spot when we consider their home record. We just need to hope they avoid away knockout collapses that we've seen in recent seasons at Dortmund and Juventus.
Antoine to assist
With Alvarez and Sorloth the main attacking options, ANTOINE GRIEZMANN can flourish in his preferred second striker/attacking midfielder role. That makes the 50/1 for him to HAVE THE MOST ASSISTS an interesting bet.
He was a successful pick in last season's outright column, landing place money in the top goalscorer market, but this time we're backing him to be the provider with recent creativity not matching his final assists total.
Despite just one assist in European competition last season, he actually created 27 chances in ten appearances, five of those ranked as 'big chances' to score.
The 22/23 campaign did demonstrate his ability to register assists. He returned 19 in 48 games across all competitions - it was the most of any LaLiga player by far.
At 33, he's still delivering on the biggest stage. With Atletico fancied to get far, Griezmann should get plenty of opportunities to shine in this area.
Celtic's favourable fixtures
Celtic and the Champions League aren't a particularly strong match-up in recent years.
They did make the round of 16 under Neil Lennon in 2013, but after that it's been disappointing showings which led to either group stage exits or failure to even reach that far.
But the new format gives them a chance of progression.
Captain Callum McGregor puts Celtic 3-0 up against Rangers š„pic.twitter.com/3sNSzGDrJg
ā Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) September 1, 2024
Celtic were in pot three so knew they'd be in for tough fixtures, yet the draw has been kind to them with favourable games coming from each of the sections.
They face Dortmund and Leipzig from pot one, with Club Brugge and Atalanta given from pot two. A look at the other options shows how it could have been much, much worse.
You can get 7/4 on CELTIC TO FINISH 9-24 IN THE LEAGUE STAGE which is worth backing considering their opposition.
Three wins from eight should be enough to achieve this. They have home fixtures against Club Brugge, RB Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys.
Last season saw a win over Feyenoord with a draw against Atletico Madrid in two of their three home group games - two tougher opponents than they will face this time around.
The odds also have three of their home opponents at a shorter price than Celtic in the 'top finish last' market, further evidence of the type of draw they ended up with.
As ever, Brendan Rodgers' side look strong domestically with four wins from four kicking off the new campaign - that includes a 3-0 win over Rangers prior to the international break - and not a single goal conceded as yet.
Matt O'Riley may have left for Brighton but they've spent on the likes of Arne Engels, Adam Idah and Auston Trusty. It's still a squad which has some good quality throughout.
Whether or not they make it through to the round of 16 depends on the opponent, but Celtic should be in with a chance at least.
Feel the Raph
Watching Raphinha fills me with joy, despite my cold heart, and I do sit and chuckle away to myself at random times when I remember that he actually played for Leeds United very recently.
His time at Barcelona has been mixed but he looks to finally have a fixed place under Hansi Flick's guidance. His first four games of the season have delivered two assists with a hat-trick coming in the 7-0 hammering of Real Valladolid.
Considering his early showings, I'll take the 33/1 on RAPHINHA TO HAVE THE MOST ASSISTS. Barcelona's group stage fixtures are also favourable.
Flick's men were a pot one side. They face his former club Bayern Munich alongside Borussia Dortmund and their fixtures beyond that are more than winnable.
Pot two gives them Atalanta and Benfica, pot three has Young Boys and Red Star Belgrade and pot four presents Brest and Monaco. From the eight pot one teams, you could argue Barcelona have the best run.
The Brazil international finished last season with 13 assists in 37 games across all competitions but the new campaign is delivering even more in terms of the chances created.
There's also more certainty in his involvement, whereas 23/24 saw a number of appearances from the bench. With Robert Lewandowski still prolific despite being in the latter stages of his career and Lamine Yamal an incredible talent on the other end of the age scale, there should be plenty of assists on offer.
He's also a set-piece taker, which is a crucial aspect to consider in this market.
Odds correct at 1630 BST (10/09/24)
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