- Follow @TomCarnduff
Football betting tips: Champions League
2.5pts e.w. Real Madrid to win the Champions League at 8/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
1pt e.w. Atletico Madrid to win the Champions League at 25/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
1pt e.w. Rodrygo to be top goalscorer at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Antoine Griezmann to be top goalscorer at 80/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
The 2022/23 campaign finally ended Manchester City's wait to get their hands on the main trophy in elite European club football - at last Pep Guardiola's side justified their short price as favourites.
They went off at 5/2 this time last year, and their success in Istanbul in June means they've shortened further for the latest edition - 9/4 the best price you'll find at the time of writing.
The 23/24 campaign marks the final one for the Champions League in its current format before we move into the 36-team mega league era next season. The road to London starts here.
Champions League 23/24 winners (odds via Sky Bet)
- Manchester City - 9/4
- Bayern Munich - 11/2
- Real Madrid - 15/2
- Arsenal - 10/1
- PSG - 12/1
- Barcelona - 14/1
This season was perhaps the first in which the outright odds have truly steered the direction I want to go in.
Despite finally winning it, I have little interest in getting involved with Manchester City at the short prices available. The quality is there for all to see and they have all the potential for a deep run once again.
Liverpool failing to qualify has affected Bayern Munich's position in the outright market - the 2020 winners now take the second-favourites tag this season.
I can't trust the consistency of this Bayern side to go far in the tournament though, even with a group draw giving them a great chance of progressing as Group A winners.
Remember, this is a side who have dominated Germany for years but needed a surprise result on the final day to hand them the Bundesliga title once again. It should have been Dortmund's - Dortmund will always find a way to throw it away.
Mikel Arteta's Arsenal revolution has fired them into a short 10/1 across the board but that's to be avoided given their six-year absence from the competition.
Of the front runners, that leaves us with REAL MADRID and their 8/1 price is one to get involved with.
We can expect Real to be among the names featuring in the latter stages - all of the last three seasons have delivered appearances in the semi-finals and that will be the minimum expectation once again.
That led to the trophy in 2022, with the two either side seeing them beaten by the eventual winners. Lining up alongside Braga, Napoli and Union Berlin gives them a good chance of topping Group C, making their run to the final easier.
The departure of Karim Benzema has seen a tactical shift headlined by the arrival of star midfielder Jude Bellingham from Dortmund. It's a squad stacked with talent in the midfield and attacking areas.
Rodrygo and Vinícius Júnior both scored at least five each in last season's competition, with the latter also registering six assists. The duo will be featuring in new roles but know the Champions League well.
Keeping focus with one of those players, and RODRYGO TO BE TOP GOALSCORER is an each-way play worth taking with odds of 50/1 available.
He'll largely be playing as a centre forward this season, with the ability to drift out wide, as Real look to replace Karim Benzema in the collective rather than through any one individual.
Still only 22, Rodrygo netted 19 goals in 57 games across all competitions last season. That coming despite the majority of his games being out on the wing.
To hit the each-way places, the average fourth-highest scorer across the past seven years netted 7.29 goals. However, the average drops to 6.60 across the past five years, with six enough in each of those campaigns.
Rodrygo has all the potential to have another good campaign, and it feels as if this price doesn't factor in his adjusted role in a team which should go far.
Sticking with the top goalscorer market, and ANTOINE GRIEZMANN looks an intriguing bet at a price of 80/1 with a few bookmakers.
The 32-year-old enjoyed a superb season for Atletico last time out, scoring 15 goals and assisting a further 17 in 38 LaLiga outings.
The disappointment would have been that only two of those goal involvements came in this competition, but he would start just four of their six contests as Atletico massively underperformed expectations.
There are a few options in this Atletico attack, but if he's fit and available, Griezmann will likely get the most minutes.
Out of all possibilities, Atletico have been handed a really good draw. They sit alongside Celtic, Feyenoord and Lazio and it's no surprise that they are 1/6 to qualify from Group E.
They're clear 8/13 favourites to top the group, and as such the 25/1 on ATLETICO MADRID TO WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE is a good each-way bet.
History shows us how beneficial it is for Atletico to win their group if they are to advance to the latter stages of this competition.
The furthest point they reached across their last six seasons involved in the Champions League was the quarter-finals, but each time they'd progressed to the knockout stages it was as the runners-up in the group.
Atleti made a semi-final appearance when winning their group in 2017, while losing the final on penalties this season before having also finished first from four. Their previous final appearance - that being in 2014 - also came as group winners.
Champions League outright best bets
- 2.5pts e.w. Real Madrid to win the Champions League at 8/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
- 1pt e.w. Atletico Madrid to win the Champions League at 25/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
- 1pt e.w. Rodrygo to be top goalscorer at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
- 1pt e.w. Antoine Griezmann to be top goalscorer at 80/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
All odds correct at 1050 BST (15/09/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
