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Champions League odds and betting tips: Who to back in the group stage
The Champions League draw has thrown up some fascinating groups, but who is value to progress? Jake Osgathorpe uses Infogol's xG model to highlight some best bets.
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Using Infogol's xG model and probabilities, this article will aim to provide a verdict for who will is most likely to win their group and progress to the quarter finals, but also if there are any value bets based on the prices available.
Champion League betting tips: Group Stage
5pts Bayern Munich to win Group C at 8/11 (General)
2.5pts Ajax to qualify from Group A at evens (General)
1.5pt Sporting Lisbon to qualify from Group D at 2/1 (bet365)
1pt Porto to win Group B at 100/30 (Betway)
1pt AC Milan to win Group E at 7/2 (10bet)
1pt Benfica to qualify from Group H at 7/2 (bet365)
Group A
Last year's runners-up Liverpool headline Group A, with the Reds drawn against Eredivise champs Ajax, progressive Italian side Napoli and Scottish side Rangers.
We will get two monumental clashes when Jurgen Klopp's side take on the Gers at Anfield and Ibrox, but in terms of probabilities, Rangers are seen as outsiders, having just a 5.0% chance of winning Group A and an 18.5% chance of progressing.
Liverpool are strong favourites to qualify as winners, and given the impressive levels they have shown over the past few years, it wouldn't be a surprise if they won all six group games as they did last year.
Champions League Group A to qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/12 - Liverpool
- Evens - Ajax
- 11/10 - Napoli
- 11/4 - Rangers
Odds correct at 1700 (26/08/22)
AJAX and Napoli will have something to say about that, with the model expecting second place to be decided between the pair, but the value lies in siding with the former.
The Dutch champions also won six of six on their way to topping their group in last season's competition, and despite losing their manager and some key players in this off-season, look over-priced TO QUALIFY.
Infogol calculates they have a 57.5% (3/4) chance of progressing to the knockout rounds, meaning the even money (50.0%) available is worth backing.
They are a club used to losing their best assets, but one that smartly replaces them in a mere seamless transition. They are fancied to better an improving Rangers side and a youthful but inexperienced Napoli side to qualify.
Group B
Atletico Madrid and Porto are in the same group for the second season running, and are joined in Group B by Bayer Leverkusen and Club Brugge.
The Belgian side were fairly competitive in a difficult group last season (PSG, Man City and RB Leipzig), but ultimately finished bottom, and that looks likely here too.
Infogol makes Atletico Madrid the 44.9% (6/5) favourites to top the pool, but that represents no value at all, with the Spaniards as short as 5/6 (54.5%) in places.
Champions League Group B winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 5/6 - Atletico Madrid
- 3/1 - Bayer Leverkusen
- 3/1 - Porto
- 11/1 - Club Brugge
Odds correct at 1700 (26/08/22)
Diego Simeone's side are vulnerable too. They shouldn't be feared here, and the team I and the Infogol model like most to challenge them for top honours is PORTO.
The Portuguese champions were unfortunate to finish third in their group with Atleti last term, putting in two excellent performances against the Spaniards in their head-to-head battles.
Sérgio Conceição is still in charge at the Dragao, and they appear to have recruited well to replace outgoing midfielders Vitinha and Fabio Vieira.
Their experience should give them an edge over Bayer Leverkusen, and they have the quality to go with organisation that makes them a real match for group favourites Atletico Madrid.
Infogol gives them a 26.8% (27/10) chance of WINNING THE GROUP, making the 100/30 (23.1%) a value price.
There is also a small amount of value in backing Porto to just qualify at around the 5/6 mark, but I'm more than happy to take a chance on them leading the pack.
Group C
What a mouth-watering prospect we have in Group C.
Not only do we get Robert Lewandowski's return to Bayern Munich as a Barcelona player, but we also have - in my opinion - the best team in Italy joining the party too.
Poor old Viktoria Plzen will do well to get a single point in this season's Champions League, with the Infogol model giving them just a 1.8% chance of qualifying, and an 89.1% chance of propping up the group.
Champions League Group C winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 8/11 - Bayern Munich
- 2/1 - Barcelona
- 4/1 - Inter Milan
- 100/1 - Viktoria Plzen
Odds correct at 1700 (26/08/22)
Personally, I can't see past BAYERN MUNICH WINNING THE GROUP here.
Julian Nagelsmann's side have started the campaign in a frightening vein of form, looking incredibly fluid in attack, something the coach wanted to see, which ultimately led to him being 'ok' with Lewandowski leaving the club.
Goals are being shared around, and with their dynamic approach, it's hard to see Barcelona and Inter Milan living with them.
Infogol makes them 59.7% (4/6) favourites to top Group C, meaning the 8/11 (57.7%) on offer is a value price.
Xavi's Barca are still a work in progress after their summer transfer business, while Inter have more continuity but arguable a tad less quality in their squad.
In what is to be a fascinating group, backing Bayern is the selection.
Group D
Could Tottenham have asked for a better draw on their return to the Champions League?
Well, it looks a very winnable group for Antonio Conte's side, with Marseille, Frankfurt and Sporting Lisbon joining them.
Infogol makes Spurs the 59.0% favourites to finish top, but that offers no value, so we pivot and turn our attentions to the race that will likely take place behind the English side.
Champions League Group D to qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/7 - Tottenham
- 6/5 - Marseille
- 5/4 - Eintracht Frankfurt
- 15/8 - Sporting Lisbon
Odds correct at 1700 (26/08/22)
The three-way race to qualify looks to be a close one, though the bookies are completely dismissing SPORTING LISBON.
Marseille have major question marks around them, particularly having parted company with star coach Jorge Sampaoli in the off-season, while Europa League winners Eintracht Frankfurt look a lesser proposition this term than last.
Sporting have been raided in the off-season, losing Matheus Nunes, Nuno Mendes and Joao Palhinha, but I manger trust Rúben Amorim to get them back on track.
Their starting XI is a match for anyone in this group in my opinion, and they look to be being underestimated for some reason, so backing them TO QUALIFY is worth a small bet at 2/1 (33.3%).
Leões qualified out of a similarly competitive group last term (Ajax, Dortmund, Besiktas) when they were really unfancied, and can cause an upset again this term.
Infogol makes the Portuguese side second favourites in this group, giving them a 57.7% (8/11) chance of progressing, which represents a huge piece of value, but given the outgoings, a more cautious stake is advised.
Group E
Chelsea will be happy with their draw, as Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb shouldn't pose too much of a threat for the qualifying spots.
But, AC MILAN could be a problem for Thomas Tuchel's side.
The Italian champions have improved an incredible amount in a few years under Stefano Pioli, with their solid defence setting them up well to compete for top honours with the Blues in Group E.
Champions League Group E winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/3 - Chelsea
- 3/1 - AC Milan
- 10/1 - Salzburg
- 50/1 - Dinamo Zagreb
Odds correct at 1700 (26/08/22)
This Milan team, while similar on paper, is not the same team who propped up their group last season (Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, Porto).
They are a force to be reckoned with having found some serious steel to accompany their attacking flair in the second half of last season.
Pioli's men look overpriced at 7/2 (22.2%) to WIN THE GROUP, with Infogol giving them a 34.8% (19/10) chance of topping the pool.
Chelsea haven't shown anything so far this season - since their transfer dealings - that would suggest they should be as short as 1/3 favourites to win the group, so I am happy to chance the Italian champions.
Salzburg qualified from their group last season, but were drawn into a much more equal pool (Lille, Sevilla, Wolfsburg), and should struggle to keep up with Chelsea and Milan.
Group F
Reigning champions Real Madrid headline Group F, and Carlo Ancelotti's side couldn't have asked for a kinder draw, being pitted against RB Leipzig, Celtic and Shakhtar Donetsk.
Madrid should make light work of their competitors, though there is no value in backing them to progress as group winners.
Champions League Group F winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/6 - Real Madrid
- 5/1 - RB Leipzig
- 14/1 - Celtic
- 50/1 - Shakhtar Donetsk
Odds correct at 1700 (26/08/22)
RB Leipzig have the capability to make this a straight forward top two, but there are enough question marks around them to give third favourites Celtic hope of qualifying.
Shakhtar are already facing an uphill battle in this group, having to play their home games in Warsaw (Poland) due to the the war in Ukraine, and will be sick of the sight of Real Madrid - with this being the third straight season the two have been paired together in the group stage of the UCL.
There are too many question marks in this group for my liking, so it's a NO BET from me, though for those of you who are after a slice of value in Group F, the Infogol model is flagging CELTIC TO QUALIFY as the main suggestion.
Group G
The Erling Haaland derby is the main talking point in Group G, with his new club Manchester City drawn to face his former club Dortmund.
A Sevilla side who appear to be going backwards after a few impressive seasons under Julen Lopetegui and rank outsiders Copenhagen make up Group C.
Champions League Group G winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/5 - Manchester City
- 5/1 - Dortmund
- 9/1 - Sevilla
- 40/1 - Copenhagen
Odds correct at 1700 (26/08/22)
City are the team in the group stage that Infogol are most confident about winning the group (84.5%) and qualifying for the last 16 (97.8%).
Unsurprisingly, there is little value to be found in backing the Citizens, and the market is more-or-less in agreement with the Infogol model in terms of the remainder of the group.
Dortmund and Sevilla both have question marks around them, but preference is for the Germans to join City in the next round, though at the prices available they make little appeal despite being the (small) value bet to qualify according to the Infogol model.
Again, it's a NO BET from me though.
Group H
Finally, we have the Angel Di Maria group.
The Argentinean, now at Juventus, comes up against not one, but two of his former teams in PSG and Benfica.
Group H is completed by minnows Maccabi Haifa, who don't stand much of a chance according to the Infogol model, having just a 3.5% probability of qualifying.
Champions League Group H to qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/25 - PSG
- 1/4 - Juventus
- 9/4 - Benfica
- 22/1 - Maccabi Haifa
Odds correct at 1700 (26/08/22)
PSG look strong under the new guidance of Christophe Galtier, with their front three all clicking to start the new season.
Les Parisiens have recruited in a strangely smart manner this summer as well, strengthening obvious weak areas with good players rather than star names.
They are strongly fancied to top proceedings, with their 72.4% chance of winning the group making them the team which the Infogol model has the second most confidence in.
Juventus continue to underwhelm, and they could well be vulnerable in this group to Portuguese outfit Benfica.
The Old Lady are still a work in progress under Massimo Allegri, and while they topped their group last season ahead of Chelsea, they were very fortunate to do so.
Getting knocked out by Villarreal highlights their current level, and the gap in price between Juve and a decent Benfica team - who qualified ahead of Barcelona last season before knocking out Ajax in the last 16 - is just too wide.
It's 1/8 (88.9%) v 7/2 (22.2%) according to the odds, with the Infogol model making it 1/2 (65.6%) v 17/10 (37.4%), so BENFICA TO QUALIFY is worth a small bet.
Yes, they have lost star man Darwin Nunez to Liverpool, but they have a new man in the dugout in Roger Schmidt who joins from PSV, and they have started the season well, with young striker Goncalo Ramos leading the line impresively.
They shouldn't be underestimated in Group H.
Odds correct at 1700 (26/08/22)
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