After returning +8.1pts profit in the Champions League last 16, Jake Osgathorpe uses Infogol's xG model to assess the quarter finals, picking best bets in the 'to qualify' market.
Using Infogol's xG model and probabilities, this article will aim to provide a verdict for who will progress to the quarter finals and advise any value bets based on the prices available.
- 'To qualify odds' are in brackets next to team names and via Sky Bet
Champions League betting tips: Quarter-final
3pts Inter Milan to qualify v Benfica at 19/20 (bet365)
2pts Bayern Munich to qualify v Man City at 6/4 (bet365)
We had plenty of success in the last 16 on this column, landing all of our main fancies thanks to Real Madrid, AC Milan and my favourite bet of the round - a 5pt double on Benfica and Napoli both qualify.
The quarter final's are fascinating, with the 'stronger sides' all on the same side of the draw, with three Italian clubs on the other half. Nearly all of the contests are expected to be very close, with the Infogol model having three of the four ties at 55-45 in terms of qualification, but is there any value to be had?
AC Milan (13/8) v Napoli (4/9)
- First leg - Wednesday, April 12
- Second leg - Tuesday, April 18
Two Italian sides who are very familiar with eachother should play out an enthralling two-legged affair.
Napoli have been the darlings of Europe this season, and rightly so, but could be missing star man Victor Osimhen for the first leg at least which is a huge blow.
And while AC Milan are far from the best side in Italy, they did dismantle Napoli 4-0 in Naples only two games ago which adds all the more intrigue to this tie.
From a betting perspective, the market has this one priced accurately, meaning their is no bet from me.
Infogol agrees that Napoli should be the strongest favourites in the round to make the semi-finals, but has them priced the same as the bookies.
Real Madrid (4/7) v Chelsea (5/4)
- First leg - Wednesday, April 12
- Second leg - Tuesday, April 18
Do Chelsea have any chance here?
Well the answer to that question is obviously yes, but in my mind - and many people's - they would have had a better chance with Graham Potter in charge as opposed to Frank Lampard.
However the quality in the squad is there to potentially cause what would be an upset against the defending champions.
According to the Infogol model, this is the closest tie of the four, with Real Madrid only 51% favourites to advance, but since the Chelsea managerial switch I think that percentage needs to be increased, which is why I won't be having a bet on this tie.
Madrid have excellent big game form following a dismantling of Barcelona at the Camp Nou last week, and have the most consistency and continuity heading into the tie.
Benfica (5/6) v Inter Milan (5/6)
- First leg - Tuesday, April 11
- Second leg - Wednesday, April 19
I had in my mind that I'd be backing Benfica to qualify from this tie - a youthful and exciting side that I do like - but the prices have moved too much in their favour, meaning the value is now there to be had by backing INTER MILAN TO QUALIFY.
The Italians made it past Benfica's title rivals Porto - the team who beat them at home in their final game before the first leg of this tie - in the last round, and while they did concede a few good chances in the away leg, that was to be expected given game state.
Simone Inzaghi's men are experienced when it comes to solid defence-first football, and they could frustrate a vibrant Benfica attack over two legs, while also posing a serious attacking threat themselves.
With Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez leading the line, there is enough firepower to hurt their Portuguese opponents.
Inter's form heading into the first leg is far from ideal (winless in six across all competitions), but performances in that time have been eye-catchingly good from an underlying numbers standpoint.
Across that winless run, they have averaged 1.93 xGF and 1.10 xGA per game, so the performances have been there.
Infogol makes the Italians the favourites to qualify in this tie, with a 55% chance (implied odds of 4/5), so the 19/20 (51%) available represents a decent slice of value.
Manchester City (8/13) v Bayern Munich (6/5)
- First leg - Tuesday, April 11
- Second leg - Wednesday, April 19
The blockbuster tie of the round.
Pep Guardiola taking on one of his former teams, and Thomas Tuchel - now Bayern Munich coach - taking on the team he beat in the 2021 Champions League final when manager of Chelsea.
He took over the Blues mid-season before leading them to UCL glory, and has the chance to repeat that feat with a very talented Bayern side.
The market really likes City to advance from this tie, and that is understandable given how good they have looked of late, but Pep's side are just too short, with the gap between these sides not as big as the odds would suggest.
In fact, I've narrowed the gap even more since the appointment of Tuchel, a coach that has proven an ability to frustrate his City counterpart and one who will make an attempt to sure Bayern up defensively.
The market suggests this is a 60% - 40% tie, but the Infogol makes it 55% - 45%, meaning the value is in siding with BAYERN MUNICH TO QUALIFY.
It hasn't all been plain sailing for Tuchel since taking over, losing to Freiburg in the DFB Pokal, but the signs are there that they are improving defensively, which will certainly be required over two legs against this City side.
They also have the capability to really punish their opponents in the attacking phase, and with the potential for a classic 'Pep's over-thought it' moment, they Germans do seem to be being underestimated here.
Champions League outright winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 9/4 - Manchester City
- 4/1 - Bayern Munich
- 4/1 - Napoli
- 6/1 - Real Madrid
- 12/1 - Benfica
- 12/1 - Chelsea
- 12/1 - Inter Milan
- 20/1 - AC Milan
Odds correct at 1900 (05/04/23)
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