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Champions League final tips: Dortmund vs Real Madrid best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League final
1pt Real Madrid to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/4 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
1pt Under 3.5 cards at 6/4 (William Hill)
*All bets 90 minutes only
BuildABet @ 16/1
Real Madrid to win in 90 minutes
Jadon Sancho to win 2+ fouls
Vinicius Jr to score in 90 minutes
Dani Carvajal to commit 2+ fouls
Yes, Real Madrid are back in yet ANOTHER Champions League final. The 14-time champions of Europe most recently won the title back in 21/22, and will partake in their sixth UCL showpiece over the last 11 seasons. Spoiler alert - they have lifted the trophy in all six.
Standing in their way of a record extending 15th title and a seventh in 12 season are Dortmund, the side who finished fifth in the Bundesliga this season.
Edin Terzic's side have defied the odds to get this far, but it has to be said, they haven't really been tested. Their group stage comprised of French champions PSG, the seventh best side in England, Newcastle, and the distant second best side in Italy, Milan.
The last 16 saw them beat PSV, they ousted a poor version of Atletico Madrid (4th in La Liga) in the quarters, before getting the better of PSG again in the semis. Real, for comparison, edged out RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich - both who finished comfortably above Dortmund in the Bundesliga - and beat defending UCL champions Manchester City on their way to the final.
What are the best bets?
There is no doubt that this will therefore be Dortmund's toughest test of the season, in any competition, and that explains why Madrid are so short to win the game in 90 minutes (8/13) and to win lift the trophy (3/10).
I strongly fancy Ancelotti's men here, for a number of reasons, and I feel the best way to get them onside is to back REAL MADRID TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 6/4.
We are talking about a team who stormed to the La Liga title this season, are on a 47 game unbeaten run (in 90 mins) across all competitions stretching back to September, and have a spell cast over this competition that is simply unquantifiable. They won't be blinded by the bright lights on Saturday.
Five of the last six and 11 of the last 16 Champions League finals have gone under 2.5 goals, so we shouldn't really expect too many goals here either, especially when assessing the two sides.
Defensively they are solid, conceding just 35 goals in their last 43 matches across La Liga and Champions League contests, allowing just 1.04 xGA per game, keeping 21 clean sheets. They should be able to keep Dortmund at bay here.
At the other end, the Germans have shown just how vulnerable they are, while we know the strengths Real possess. Terzic's side have allowed a huge average of 1.65 xGA per game this season across league and UCL matches, with that figure rising to 1.91 when isolating just the latter.
They have been very fortunate to make it this far, relying on poor finishing and top quality goalkeeping. PSG - a side who I rate quite a bit lower than Madrid - created an abundance of chances equating to 10.3 xG (2.6 per game) across their four meetings despite scoring just three times. Los Blancos will be much more clinical.
I'm also going to have a bet similar to last weekend's successful ones in the FA Cup final, opposing cards. We can back UNDER 3.5 CARDS at 6/4 and that appeals.
The Champions League final has been good for card opposers in recent seasons, with this bet having landed in four of the last six showpieces. It nearly landed in last season's too, only for three yellows to come after the 90th minute. Overall there has been an average of just 3.0 cards per game in that span - and that's boosted by Daniele Orsato's eight in the behind closed doors final in 2020!
Referee appointment has a lot to do with it, but also I feel as though there has been far more leniency this season in this competition from referees in general, allowing the games to flow and not being so quick to reach for a card. The four high-octane, high-pressure semi-finals delivered just 12 cards for an average of 3.0 per game.
Slovenian Slavko Vinčić is the man in the middle, and he has averaged 3.5 cards per game in the Champions League this season, while these two sides' games haven't been card laden this term.
Dortmund's matches have averaged 2.92 cards per game with Real's at 3.33, adding more confidence into the Under 3.5 bet. Of course if Mr Vinčić dishes an early card, this bet is likely screwed, but team, referee and historic stats are in our favour.
If you want to get greedy, no cards can be backed at 41/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power, with that bet as short as 22/1 in places. It did land when Liverpool beat Tottenham in 18/19, and there was a Slovenian referee in charge on that day too...
Team news
Dortmund could name the exact same team for this game as they did in both legs of the semi-final victory over PSG. Edin Terzic has all of those 11 players fit and available.
The question mark is around Marco Reus, who was brought in for Dortmund's last home league game of the season and receiving an incredible send off with this being his final season at the club. There is no room for sentimentality in a Champions League final though, and Reus is expected to start on the bench.
Real Madrid could be without Aurelien Tchouameni at Wembley, with the Frenchman a doubt through injury, which could mean Eduardo Camavinga coming into midfield, while Carlo Ancelotti has a huge decision to make between the sticks.
Thibaut Courtois has been injured for nearly all of the campaign but is now fit and available, leaving Real's Italian supremo with a selection headache given how well Andriy Lunin has played throughout the season.
Predicted line-ups
Dortmund: Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Can, Sabitzer; Adeyemi, Brandt, Sancho; Füllkrug
Real Madrid: Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Rüdiger, Mendy; Valverde, Kroos, Camavinga; Bellingham; Rodrygo, Vinícius Júnior
Match facts
- This will be the 15th meeting between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid in European competition, all of which have been in the UEFA Champions League. Real Madrid are the team Borussia Dortmund have faced most often in the competition (14), while the Spanish side have only faced FC Bayern München (22) and Juventus (16) more often.
- Borussia Dortmund have only won three of their 14 meetings with Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League (D5 L6). Among teams they’ve faced at least five times in the competition, only against Manchester City (17%) do they have a lower win percentage than against the Spanish side (21%).
- This will be Real Madrid’s 18th appearance in a European Cup/UEFA Champions League final, with their 17 already the most of any side. They’ve lifted the trophy in 14 of those previous 17 finals, while a victory here would mean they’ve won the European Cup (15) more than twice as many times as any other team (Milan with the next-most on 7).
- Borussia Dortmund are appearing in just their third UEFA Champions League final (won in 1996-97, lost in 2012-13 previously), with their qualification meaning this will be the first final in the competition between German and Spanish opposition since the 2002 final – one which was won by Real Madrid (2-1 v Bayer Leverkusen).
- Should they avoid defeat here, Real Madrid will have gone unbeaten across a European Cup/UEFA Champions League season for the first time in their history (currently P12 W8 D4). They’d be only the second Spanish side to win the trophy without losing a single game in that campaign, along with Barcelona in 2005-06 (P13 W9 D4).
- Borussia Dortmund’s opponents have hit the woodwork 12 times in the UEFA Champions League this season (including six times in the semi-final by Paris Saint-Germain); the most a team has ever seen their woodwork hit within a single campaign on record (since 2003-04).
- Should Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund) and Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) both appear in this game, it would be the first time two English players have faced each other in a European Cup/UEFA Champions League final while both playing for non-English sides.
- Across the last three UEFA Champions League campaigns (since 2021-22), Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior has been directly involved in more goals than any other player (31 – 16 goals, 15 assists). 17 of those have come in the knockout stages (eight goals, nine assists), which is also the most of any player in this period.
- Jude Bellingham has created more chances under pressure (19) than any other midfielder in the UEFA Champions League, with four of those resulting in an assist for a Real Madrid teammate. The only player to provide more assists while under pressure from at least one opposition player in the current tournament is Borussia Dortmund’s Marcel Sabitzer (5).
- Jadon Sancho has completed 25 dribbles across his six UEFA Champions League appearances for Borussia Dortmund this season; the most by a player in the knockout stages in a single edition since Neymar for finalists Paris Saint-Germain in 2019-20 (32).
- Borussia Dortmund’s Gregor Kobel has saved 84% of the shots on target he’s faced in this season’s UEFA Champions League (42/50). Indeed, based on the quality of shots on target faced using xG, he’s the goalkeeper who has prevented the most goals in the competition this term (+7.1 – seven conceded from 14.1 xG on target faced).
Odds correct at 1150 BST (28/05/24)
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