Our Andy Schooler previews Liverpool v Hoffenheim and makes Benjamin Hubner the man to follow in the Champions League qualifier.
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Liverpool v Hoffenheim (1945 BST, BT Sport 2; 1st leg: 2-1)
Good attack, bad defence.
That’s Liverpool in a nutshell – and it has been for some time - but you know that, right?
So how about we take a deeper look into how we could profit from their strengths and weaknesses?
We saw in last week’s first leg that Hoffenheim are capable of troubling the Reds. They should have taken the lead in the first half from the penalty spot and could easily have grabbed a draw as they turned up the pressure late on.
However, in the main Liverpool did their job well and, while they are far from the team Jurgen Klopp would want them to be, it should be remembered that Hoffenheim had not lost at home in 15 months before last week.
They should finish the job from here but it is worth noting that while the Germans’ away record far from matched their home one in 2016/17, they did lose only four of 17 Bundesliga matches, winning five, and scored in all bar one of their away games.
Both teams to score therefore immediately enters the equation but I was a tad disappointed to see only 4/7 on offer there.
With the attacking triumvirate of Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah again likely to line up at the front of the pitch, Liverpool will carry goal threat. Mane has scored in back-to-back Premier League games and Salah has quickly found his feet in a red shirt and with that in mind a home win with both teams scoring is probably a better price at 19/10.
However, it’s another bet which relates to Liverpool’s attacking trio which is my leading suggestion for this game.
The trio’s pace gives opposition defenders plenty to cope with and the hosts will look to break from deep whenever possible.
With this in mind, it could well pay to back Benjamin Hubner to be carded.
The defender took down Firmino in last week’s game as Liverpool attempted to break to earn what was his 10th yellow card in his last 17 games.
Such statistics suggest he should be odds-on to enter the referee’s notebook but you can get 6/5 (William Hill) which looks worth taking, particularly when you consider the quality he’ll be up against.
With Hubner set to play on the left of a back three, specifically it’s the in-from Mane who will likely be going at him and the Senegalese’s game is well suited to getting defenders to commit to tackles.
The man in charge is Italy’s Daniele Orsato, who isn’t known for his leniency. His Champions League make-ups last season were (most recent first) 7-6-7-3-2-5, while his one and only domestic game so far this term saw four yellows shown, and that only helps the selection.
I’ll stick with Hubner for my second bet of the night, namely the 6ft 4in stopper to score at any time.
This was a bet I personally backed last week so it was frustrating to see him head a great chance over the bar in injury time.
That set-piece opportunity is exactly the sort Liverpool have been giving up too lightly and Hubner should again be a threat from any such scenarios at Anfield.
He scored three goals in 26 games for his club last season which isn’t a bad record for a defender and certainly suggests a best price of 15/1 (Unibet, 888sport, 32Red) is a bit out.
Given the lack of organisation we’ve seen so far from Liverpool at the back this season, this looks worth a small punt at a double-figure price - there are plenty available across the industry.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Hoffenheim (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best of the rest
On the remainder of the coupon, a couple of prices stand out for those who like to back the outsiders.
Firstly I’m not sure Steaua Bucharest should be out at 17/5 to defeat Sporting Lisbon on home soil having earned a goalless draw in Portugal last week.
However, the hosts will be without midfielder Mihai Pintilii for the return game after the midfielder was sent off in the closing stages last week.
Sporting have yet to concede a goal in their four games this season too so perhaps APOEL Nicosia are the better bet – they head to Slavia Prague.
The Cypriots are in control of the tie having won last week’s first leg 2-0 and aren’t getting enough respect in the market.
Under now-Leeds boss Thomas Christansen, APOEL knocked Athletic Bilbao out of last season’s Europa League and won away at Olympiakos during their run to the last 16.
There is plenty of European experience in their line-up and while they have traditionally struggled away from home, Slavia are no world beaters.
Their season is well under way but seven games into it they have scored just five goals. That lack of goals has meant they’ve managed to win just one of their last five games.
The tie situation means they have to come out at some point but that could easily play into the hands of the visitors who, if they can keep things tight at the back against a lightweight attack, as they did last week, must stand a good chance of coming away with another victory.
Posted at 1725 BST on 22/08/17.
Related links
Midweek Carabao Cup betting preview
Sky Bet's Champions League odds
Ben Linfoot's Daily Nap - won at 16/1 on Tuesday!
