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PSG's Kylian Mbappe celebrates his goal

Free football betting tips and preview: Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid and Liverpool v FC Porto in the Champions League last-16 second-legs

Football

Tue March 06, 2018 · 7y ago

Tom Carnduff is backing PSG to win in 90 minutes, alongside Kylian Mbappe finding the net, as they look to bounce back in their Champions League second-leg clash against Real Madrid.

Champions League recommended bets

2pts PSG to win the match (90 minutes) v Real Madrid at evens

1pt Kylian Mbappe to score anytime in PSG v Real Madrid at 13/10

1pt Vincent Aboubakar to score anytime in Liverpool v FC Porto at 61/20

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (1945 GMT, BT Sport 2)

The Champions League returns on Tuesday night with Real Madrid holding a 3-1 first-leg advantage over Paris Saint-Germain in the mouth-watering tie of the last 16 stage.

A brace from Cristiano Ronaldo, combined with Marcelo’s late effort, ensured Zinedine Zidane’s men travelled to France with a two-goal lead.

The Parisians do have some hope though, with Adrien Rabiot’s first-half strike giving them a crucial away goal.

Despite the deficit, PSG go into this one as favourites and can be found as big as 11/10 to win the contest in 90 minutes. Madrid, on the other hand, are available at 5/2 to secure victory again.

Edinson Cavani currently sits top of the goal-scoring charts for the hosts, scoring 30 and assisting a further five in all competitions this season. He’s around the 3/1 mark to open the scoring on Tuesday night.

Rabiot (right) gave PSG the lead in the first leg

A huge blow for PSG is the loss of Neymar, with the world’s most expensive player being ruled out until the end of the season with a metatarsal injury in his right foot.

Conspiracy theories have emerged from it though. French newspaper L'Equipe have said that the Brazilian national team doctor Rodrigo Lasmer may have exaggerated the damage to the attacker's foot. This is to ensure he is fully ready for the World Cup in Russia this summer; that might be a story to keep a close eye on.

Sky Bet: PSG to win the Champions League is 11/1

Remarkably, PSG are yet to drop points at home in any competition this season, winning 19 games in a row. That run includes a hefty 7-1 victory over Celtic, alongside a 5-0 hammering Anderlecht and a 3-0 win over Bayern Munich, the latter result causing Carlo Ancelotti to lose his job at the German giants.

For Madrid, defeat at Espanyol last week ended their run of 11 away games without a loss. Zidane’s men responded with a 3-1 victory over Getafe on Saturday, a result that sees them still 15 points behind Barcelona in the LaLiga standings.

That league form means that European glory is the main focus for Real this season. They won the Champions League in 2015/16 and again in 2016/17, with the first leg victory putting them in a prime position to advance to the quarter-final stages.

PSG's Kylian Mbappe celebrates scoring

Despite the absence of the influential Neymar, PSG know that they need to win, and win big, if they are to advance to the next round. When it comes to those who can step-up to give the hosts goals, they have a number of options available at their disposal.

Kylian Mbappe will be one to watch as he looks to add to his 14 goals and 11 assists this season. He currently faces a battle to be fit, but PSG are hopeful that he will start for them after he picked up an ankle injury in the win over Toulouse. Mbappe did also start in the victory over Marseille before being rested for the clash with Troyes.

He has four on his tally in European competitions and will be more than capable of adding to that as PSG look to close the two-goal gap between themselves and their opponents at the start of play.

PSG to win at over 2.5 goals can be found at 29/20, which may be an avenue to explore given the attacking quality that both sides possess.

With both sides able to attack, corners might be another market to look at. Two of the last three meetings between these two in the Champions League have seen over 12 corners, with the first leg having 15. Over 11.5 corners is tempting and is around the 7/6 mark.

Given the quality within their squad, and the fact that they are yet to drop points at home this season including some massive results in the Champions League, I’m backing PSG to win the game in 90 minutes at evens. I’d also be looking at Mbappe to find the net at any time in the 90 minutes, he can be found at 7/5 to do so.

Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain 3-1 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Best bet: PSG to win the match (90 minutes) v Real Madrid at 21/20
Alternative bet: Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 13/10

Liverpool v FC Porto (1945 GMT, BT Sport 3)

Liverpool host Portuguese outfit Porto with a spot in the quarter-final all but secure following a 5-0 demolition in the first leg.

A Sadio Mane hat-trick, combined with efforts from Roberto Firmino and Mo Salah, put Jurgen Klopp’s side all but through ahead of the reverse leg on Merseyside.

Despite a big defeat, Porto have responded well and put five past both Rio Ave and Portimonense, with last weekend’s victory over Sporting moving them five points clear at the top of the Primeira Liga.

Another positive is that Porto scored six goals in their three away games in the group stage and, given Liverpool’s defensive issues at times, can come to Anfield believing that they can get themselves onto the scoresheet more than once.

Sadio Mane put Liverpool ahead against Porto

Even with a couple of goals, they’ve given themselves too much to do following the first meeting between these two and will travel to England looking to restore some pride in their inevitable departure from the competition.

Klopp’s men have kept just one clean sheet in their last seven home matches, that coming in the weekend’s 2-0 victory over Newcastle, and three of those games saw the away team score more than once.

With their place in the next round secure, Liverpool will have their focus on Saturday’s huge clash with Manchester United.

Both sides are battling to secure second in the Premier League standings, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City are 18 points clear at the top and find themselves just four wins away from the title.

Both teams to score is 17/20, which seems decent value given Porto’s desire for some form of redemption and Liverpool’s fantastic attacking quality.

When it comes to scoring, Porto will be without the influential Moussa Marega for the tie.

The 26-year-old is Porto’s top league scorer and has netted 21 times in all competitions, scoring every 99 minutes in the Portuguese league.

Porto's Vincent Aboubakar

That’s why the visitors will be looking to Vincent Aboubakar to get them onto the scoresheet.

The 26-year-old has 26 goals in all competitions this season, including five goals in as many games in Europe.

Aboubakar scored a brace in two group stage games, alongside contributing assists in the victories over RB Leipzig and AS Monaco.

If Porto are to strike, you’d imagine he’ll be in and around the goals.

Given his record this season, I’m backing Aboubakar to score anytime at 3/1 at Anfield on Tuesday night. Porto or draw in the double chance market at 8/5 might be worth exploring with Liverpool having an eye on the Manchester United clash on Saturday.