Free football betting tips and odds: FC Porto v Liverpool and Real Madrid v Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League

Football

Wed February 14, 2018 · 7y ago

George Pitts reckons Roberto Firmino can score an important away goal for Liverpool as he previews Wednesday's Champions League ties.

Champions League recommended bets

2pts Roberto Firmino to score anytime at 21/10

1pt Cristiano Ronaldo to score two or more goals at 7/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

FC Porto v Liverpool (1945 GMT, BT Sport 2)

The last time Liverpool faced Porto in the Champions League, they went on to reach the last four.

The two clubs – both winners of the competition since the turn of the century – were paired in the group stages for the 2007/08 campaign, first drawing in Portugal before the Reds were 4-1 winners at Anfield, and Jurgen Klopp would certainly take those scorelines this time around.

Liverpool have been handed the more favourable draw, with the home tie coming in the second leg and that could be vital.

They travel to Estadio do Dragao as favourites and Klopp’s men will be confident after going unbeaten in the group stages, scoring 23 goals in just six games, and I think they will return to England with the advantage.

Their last 16 opponents – the only team yet to taste defeat in all domestic competitions in Europe's top leagues – should provide a stern test though.

Sergio Conceicao’s side were runners up in their Champions League group, but they are growing in confidence having not lost in their last three European outings, netting nine in that period.

Porto danger men include forwards Moussa Marega and Vincent Aboubakar, who have 43 goals between them in all competitions this term, while Yacine Brahimi is often their creative spark.

The Reds are no strangers to creativity and finding the back of the net themselves, though, with Roberto Firmino and Mo Salah bagging a combined 49 goals so far in 2017/18. The former is Liverpool’s top scorer in Europe with six and he can be backed at 21/10 to net anytime, with that price improved to 3/1 if we throw in the Liverpool win.

Klopp has managed his side well this season with squad rotation and, although he fielded a strong line-up in the weekend win at Southampton, they will be well prepared for this one. But while they may have improved defensively since the arrival of Virgil van Dijk and Loris Karius' improvement in form, keeping Porto quiet will not be easy.

Success for Liverpool would be scoring and avoiding defeat, and Firmino can help them do that by enhancing his excellent record in the competition.

Prediction: FC Porto 1-3 Liverpool

Best Bet: Roberto Firmino to score anytime at 21/10

Alternative: Liverpool to win and both teams to score at 16/5

Opta statistics

Liverpool are unbeaten against Porto, having played them four times in all competitions (W2 D2). Their two encounters in Portugal both ended in draws.
Their only previous encounter in the knockout stages of a European competition was in 2000/01 in the UEFA Cup quarter-finals. Liverpool won 2-0 on aggregate and went on to lift the trophy later that season.
Porto have lost their last three Champions League knockout games (1 goal scored, 9 conceded).
Porto have reached the knockout stages of the Champions League in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2009/10. They haven’t progressed past the quarter-finals since they lifted the trophy in 2004.
Meanwhile, Liverpool have reached the knockout stages of the Champions League for the first time since 2008/09.
Liverpool were one of four teams to remain unbeaten in this season’s Champions League group stages, alongside Barcelona, Besiktas and Tottenham.
Only PSG (25) scored more goals than Liverpool (23) in this season’s Champions League group stages. The Reds also made more touches inside the opposition box than any other team (251).
Porto scored more goals from set-piece (8) than any other team in this season’s Champions League group stages.
Only PSG’s Parc des Princes stadium (16) produced more goals than Porto’s Dragão (15) in this season’s Champions League group stages.
Porto’s Vincent Aboubakar has scored five goals and delivered two assists in this season’s Champions League (5 games), already the most prolific campaign of his career.
In his first six Champions League games, Roberto Firmino has scored six goals and delivered three assists. Also, no player was directly involved in more goals than Firmino away from home in this season’s group stages (4 goals, 2 assists).

Real Madrid v Paris Saint-Germain (1945 GMT, BT Sport 3)

A clash between two modern European powerhouses, as the 12-time winners host a team aiming for a first triumph in the competition.

Lessons will have been learnt by Paris Saint-Germain since last season’s Champions League campaign – Unai Emery’s side threw away a 4-0 first-leg lead over Barcelona at the last 16 stage – but they have bolstered their ranks and are now one of the favourites to lift the trophy in Kiev.

PSG lead the way in Ligue 1 by 12 points, yet the club’s Qatari owners are still reportedly considering a summer change as they seek European dominance.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid are off the pace as they sit fourth in La Liga, 17 points adrift of leaders Barcelona and Zinedine Zidane is also said to be under pressure despite winning the Champions League for the last two seasons.

Both sides' front threes will be key in this one, with PSG’s trio of Edinson Cavani, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar netting a combined 71 goals in all competitions so far this season, while Real’s likely trio for the night – Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo – have managed just 38 in total.

As noted by Sky Sports’ Guillem Ballague, big changes could follow in the summer for the losing side and this is a really tough clash to call.

Real remain favourites due to their home advantage and competition experience, and we know the level of performance they can reach on their day.

With Ronaldo hitting form courtesy of seven in four and Zidane having prepared for this in the right way with his weekend selection, it may just be that Real hold the edge here in one of the most fascinating ties of the round with their main man taken to rise to the occasion once more.

Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Paris Saint-Germain

Best Bet: Cristiano Ronaldo to score two or more goals at 13/2

Alternative: Real to win and over 2.5 goals in the match at 23/10

Opta statistics

The head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain is perfectly balanced with two wins each and two draws in all competitions.
PSG have eliminated Real Madrid in their two previous knockout encounters (1992/93 UEFA Cup, 1993/94 Cup Winners Cup), both times in the quarter-finals.
However, their only previous encounters in the Champions League saw Real Madrid win one and draw one in the 2015/16 group stages, with Real keeping clean sheets in both games.
Under Zinedine Zidane, Real Madrid have won 10 of their 14 Champions League knockout games (D2 L2), lifting the trophy twice in as many seasons. As part of this run, they’ve won all six of their games at the Bernabeu.
Real Madrid are playing in the Champions League for the 21st consecutive season, the longest run in the history of the competition. They have always reached the knockout stages in that period.
Real Madrid have reached the semi-finals in each of the last seven Champions League campaigns, also a record run in the history of the competition.
Last season, Real Madrid became the first team since Inter Milan in 2010 to win the Champions League after having finished second in their group.
Real Madrid have won the European Cup/Champions League on 12 occasions – including three of the last four – more than any other team in history. In fact, they’ve won each of their last six finals in the competition.
Meanwhile, PSG haven’t progressed further than the quarter-finals in the last five Champions League seasons. Their best performance to date is a semi-final in 1994/95 when they were eliminated by AC Milan.
PSG have lost four of their last six away games in the Champions League knockout stages, winning one (2-1 v Chelsea in March 2016) and drawing one.
PSG scored 25 goals in this season’s group stages, a record in the group phase of the competition.
Top scorer in the history of the Champions League (114 goals), Cristiano Ronaldo has netted 19 goals in his last 11 games in the competition, including in every single game this season.
If he plays, this will be Gareth Bale’s 50th Champions League game. He’d become the second Welsh player to reach that landmark after Ryan Giggs (141 games).
Karim Benzema has scored in 13 consecutive Champions League seasons, only Lionel Messi is currently on the same run. If he plays, this will be the Frenchman’s 99th game in the competition (53 goals).
Kylian Mbappe is the youngest ever player to reach the 10-goal mark in the Champions League (18 years and 11 months old). In comparison, Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo were respectively 20 years 10 months old and 23 years 1 month old when they reached that milestone.
Mbappe has scored six goals in as many Champions League knockout games.
PSG boss Unai Emery has never gone further than the round of 16 in his five previous participations as manager in the Champions League.

Last updated at 1445 GMT on 13/02/18.