We're at the business end of the Sky Bet Championship season with just five games remaining in the battle for the Premier League.
Football's three-month pause left a hectic schedule for England's second tier to complete their campaign by the end of July. That has meant midweek fixtures as well as weekend contests and a game to watch almost every single day.
Leeds haven't moved from top spot with Marcelo Bielsa's men holding a six-point advantage over Brentford in third. While the Bees have a better goal difference, Leeds' current situation makes them very short odds for a Premier League return.
West Brom are the other side sitting in a strong position for automatic promotion. The current top-two hasn't changed since Gameweek 17 and they'll be hoping for the same between now and the conclusion of the campaign.
Fulham and Nottingham Forest look certain for the play-offs while Cardiff have fired themselves into the picture with a string of good results. Despite their three-point gap, that sixth spot is still up for grabs.
With 41 games played, Tom Carnduff looks at the promotion picture.
How does it currently look?
Leeds held a seven-point gap over third after 37 games. With 41 played, that gap remains at a significant six points.
The issue that both of the top-two currently face is Brentford's excellent form and their huge goal difference. If they do catch up with either team above them, they will almost certainly take their spot given their current +40 number.
Games are running out for Brentford to close that gap though and they need to find two more wins than Leeds or West Brom. If either win three of their final five, the Bees will have to go on and win all five.
Ten more points gets Leeds into the Premier League, that's regardless of what Brentford do. For West Brom, that tally stands at eleven although they could do it with ten if they find a way to somehow significantly improve their goal difference situation.
Fulham and Nottingham Forest seem certainties for the play-offs. It's too much to ask at this point in the season for an automatic promotion push but they hold a healthy advantage over Derby in seventh; both also have significantly better goal differences.
Cardiff's fine form since the restart has fired them into the play-off picture and they hold a three-point advantage over the chasing pack. They've beaten Leeds, Preston and Bristol City since the restart and their run-in includes a game away at Fulham; that could well be a play-off semi-final at the end of the month.
Cardiff's 4/11 price on a play-off appearance indicates that the money is behind Neil Harris' side giving themselves a chance of a Premier League return. On that topic, Leeds became the first team to secure a top-six finish following their win over Blackburn last time out.
What about averages?
There's always been a feeling that the automatic promotion tally will be smaller this season and the averages suggest that a low 80s tally will be enough for a spot in the Premier League.
Brentford have been winning, and winning well, with many fancying them to go on and secure victory in all five of their remaining fixtures. However, the averages say that they will pick up another nine points; that's three wins from five games.
Leeds are on course for 88 points; the marker that would see them automatically promoted regardless of what the teams below do. West Brom would finish on 86 if they continue at their current rate.
Brentford's good form has seen them bump the automatic promotion marker up to 81 from 79 after 37 games played. That could mean that both Leeds and West Brom are just two wins away from England's top-flight.
In sixth, Cardiff would finish on 72 points which is a slight increase on the play-off marker expected from Preston during their break; they were on course for 70 points after 37 games.
If Nottingham Forest were to finish on 76 points, as is expected on their current average, it would be their best points return since 2011 under Billy Davies' guidance (75). That was also the last season where they featured in the play-offs.
The crucial fixtures
Remaining fixtures v top-six sides:
- Leeds:
- West Brom: Fulham (H)
- Brentford:
- Fulham: Nottingham Forest (A), Cardiff (H), West Brom (A)
- Nottingham Forest: Fulham (H)
- Cardiff: Fulham (A)
It's good news for Leeds and Brentford who avoid any of the current top-six during their final five fixtures; although both do have to play Derby who sit in seventh.
Fulham's tough run continues with Nottingham Forest, Cardiff and West Brom all to come. That fixture list, combined with the current points difference, explains why they are a huge 33/1 for a top-two finish at this point.
For the other top-six teams, Fulham remains their only fixture while West Brom, like Leeds and Brentford, still have to face play-off hopefuls Derby.
The same can be said for Cardiff. That fixture against the Rams, with three games remaining of the season, will go a long way in deciding who secures that final play-off spot.
Who are the favourites?
Promotion - odds via Sky Bet
- Leeds - 1/33
- West Brom - 1/10
- Brentford - 4/6
- Fulham - 9/4
- Nottingham Forest - 5/1
- Cardiff - 9/1
- Derby - 25/1
Leeds have shifted from top spot since the restart and their odds on promotion have moved to 1/33 from 1/20 just three weeks ago.
West Brom have seen movement the other way with their odds now at 1/10 from 1/16 but they still remain heavily fancied to go on and make a Premier League return.
Brentford are now into odds-on following their great return having been 5/4 during the break but the biggest movement has come through Cardiff and Derby.
The Bluebirds are now 9/1 with the three-point cushion between themselves and seventh; but they were 28/1 prior to the return.
For Derby, their 25/1 price is still big but it was 150/1 at the beginning of June. Wayne Rooney's presence has clearly had a positive impact on the team but they still have work to do if they are to make the top-six.
Odds correct at 1045 BST (06/07/20)
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