Thursday evening sees Neil Warnock look to start life as Middlesbrough boss with back-to-back wins. We look at the betting for Boro’s trip to fellow relegation strugglers Hull in the Sky Bet Championship.
Take a look at those odds: that’s the Neil Warnock effect.
Yes there’s more to it (and we’ll get to that) but there’s no way Middlesbrough would be such strong favourites away to a relegation rival if the 71-year-old veteran of almost 1,500 managerial games hadn’t been appointed in late June.
Warnock’s reputation as a fighter is why he’s been brought in to lead Boro in a scrap at the bottom of the Sky Bet Championship that now involves eight clubs.
Unsurprisingly, his impact has been immediate.
No-one can have been shocked by Middlesbrough's 2-0 win at fellow strugglers Stoke in the no-nonsense Yorkshireman’s first game as boss.
It was a result that confirmed what everyone suspected – Warnock’s Boro will be a tough opponent in the remaining few weeks of the season. And of course, it solidified the bookies’ view that his side will again get the better of a relegation rival away from home on Thursday night.
Hull’s form could barely be worse.
They sold their two best players in January – Jarrod Bowen moved to West Ham and Kamil Grosicki joined West Brom – and have simply caved in since.
Grant McCann’s side haven’t won since New Year’s Day, which was also the last time they kept a clean sheet, and have taken just three points from a possible 39. It’s seen them plummet from possible play-off contenders to definite relegation candidates.
There were signs of encouragement at Birmingham on Saturday when they led 2-0 and 3-2 before leaving with a point, but the three goals in a single game for only the second time this year will have been scant consolation.
Sadly for Tigers fans, that is as much as I can offer in terms of optimism.
What I will say is I can see it being tight, which always throws up the potential for a set-piece, refereeing mistake or defensive error to prove decisive. That makes Under 1.5 Goals at 9/4 tempting but only Luton (72) have conceded more than Hull’s 67 Championship goals.
Despite those stats, I have to admit I am finding it hard to ignore the goalless draw at 8/1 because of how it feels like this match will be played, but they can’t make my best bets for the reasons outlined and reasons to come. I’m not saying don’t back it, though…
Middlesbrough to keep a clean sheet at 7/4 is something I really like.
I’ve already talked about Hull’s woes in front of goal, and what also supports backing Boro for what may appear like an unlikely clean sheet is Warnock’s back to basics, defence first mantra, and the team that he’s inherited.
Although his opening win saw them record only a second clean sheet in 13 league matches, aside from the calamitous post-restart half-hour which ultimately cost Jonathan Woodgate his job Middlesbrough had actually tightened up defensively.
Prior to the shutdown they conceded a maximum of one goal in seven out of 10 fixtures.
Reading are the only bottom-half side to have conceded fewer than Boro’s 50 goals this season.
All of that makes Middlesbrough to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 9/5 a really good bet, but Middlesbrough to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 2/1 is a marginally better price, so that’s where the money’s going.
Score prediction: Hull 0-1 Middlesbrough (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct as of 1500 BST on 30/06/20
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