With 7/1 and 17/4 winners on Sunday, Tom Carnduff is hoping for more success and has two best bets for Thursday night.
Recommended bets
1pt Jayden Bogle to be shown a card at 5/1
1pt Odion Ighalo to be shown a card at 10/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Derby v Manchester United
- Thursday March 5 – 1945 GMT kick-off on BT Sport
Prepare to hear the name Wayne Rooney mentioned a lot on Thursday night.
The England legend comes up against Manchester United having spent 13 years at the club between 2004 and 2017. He's since dropped down into the Sky Bet Championship and has somewhat boosted Derby's fortunes.
The issue is that they've just got too much to do to reach the play-offs with ten games remaining in the season. That could put them in a good position here, allowing more of a focus on the FA Cup.
One big positive of this Derby season has been their home form. Phillip Cocu's men boast the third-best home record in England's second-tier, with just two losses from their 18 fixtures.
The problem they've got is that United appear to be a side who are getting better under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's guidance. Recent trips to Chelsea and Manchester City have proven successful - extending their away unbeaten run to five games.
The two sides have met each other in cup competitions for three consecutive seasons now. Frank Lampard's Derby County (as they were known prior to Wayne Rooney's arrival) managed to secure victory on penalties in the Carabao Cup back in September 2018.
That match finished in a draw over 90 minutes and there's a strong case to be made here for the same outcome.
There is appeal in taking the 17/5 best price on this one needing extra time, even a potential for the near 6/1 on a Derby win, but the value lies elsewhere in a match that has too many questions surrounding the outright market.
Cards as ever provides good value, especially given the news of Craig Pawson's appointment as the referee. He's shown at least three cards in each of his last six games - a run that includes games involving Derby and Manchester United.
Sunday provided a nice 17/4 player to be booked winner and there's two prices that immediately jump off the page here.
The first involves Jayden Bogle. The Derby right-back finds himself as a 5/1 shot to be shown a card in this contest despite having seven on his tally already this season.
He was booked in Derby's 0-0 draw with Northampton in the last round, despite being a late second-half substitute, and returned to the starting XI in the Rams' 3-1 win over Sheffield Wednesday last time out.
Bogle could be in for a busy evening down his right side with Daniel James and Brandon Williams likely to provide United's attacking threat. The liveliness of that duo should see Bogle commit a couple of fouls that will catch the referee's attention.
On the United side of things, we'd expect to see Odion Ighalo given another start in the striker's role following his January switch. The former Watford man started in their 5-0 hammering of Club Brugge in the Europa League and found himself on the scoresheet.
There's little appeal in taking the even money on offer for him to score anytime in this contest. Again, the cards market provides a much better price, and in this case it's 10/1 that he is also booked.
That price is so big given the fact that he is yet to be carded during his time at Old Trafford but he is a player with a track record of picking up yellow cards. The averages work out that he picks up four/five cards a season based on his career record.
Ighalo falls into the cliche 'striker's challenge' category and committed a foul in both legs against Brugge. His form in the Chinese Super League also supports that, with multiple games seeing two or more fouls. That number includes a huge total of five in Shanghai's 1-1 draw with Wuhan Zall in April.
As mentioned before, cards is where the value lies but in the outright market, it's worth siding with the 6/4 on Derby or draw in the double chance.
Score prediction: Derby 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Jayden Bogle to be shown a card at 5/1
Best bet: Odion Ighalo to be shown a card at 10/1
Opta facts
- Derby have lost their last eight FA Cup ties against Man Utd, most recently in the third round in 2018. The last time they beat the Red Devils in the competition was in the quarter-final of the 1896-97 campaign.
- Manchester United were eliminated by Derby the last time the sides met in any competition, with the Rams winning a penalty shootout in last season’s EFL Cup.
- Derby are looking to reach the FA Cup quarter-final for the first time since 1998-99 – the Rams have lost each of their last five fifth round matches.
- Man Utd have progressed from each of their last 10 FA Cup fifth round matches, reaching the quarter-final in each of the last five campaigns.
- Manchester United have progressed from 45 of their last 46 FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division (including finals), only failing against Leeds United in January 2010 in that run.
- Derby’s Wayne Rooney has never scored in six appearances against his former side Manchester United. The last player to score an FA Cup goal against Man Utd having previously played for the Red Devils was Danny Welbeck with Arsenal in March 2015.
Odds correct at 1555 GMT (04/03/20)
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