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Carabao Cup football tips, predictions and best bets: Round One
Football betting tips: Carabao Cup best bets
Wednesday
0.5pts Ilia Gruev to score anytime in Leeds vs Middlesbrough (20:00) at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
Leeds vs Middlesbrough
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 11/20 | Draw 29/10 | Away 19/5
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
At 10/1, ILIA GRUEV’s price to SCORE ANYTIME appeals as Leeds take on Middlesbrough.
The midfielder has not opened his Leeds account yet, in fact he's only scored one goal in his whole career and based on his goals per 90 average (0.02) he should be 49/1 to net at Elland Road this week.
Why back him then?
The midfielder appears to have more attacking freedom this term. Against Portsmouth on Saturday, he was on the end of 0.21 xG which is more then half of the amount he racked up in the entirety of last season.
Gruev had three shots, hitting the woodwork with one and the target with another and appears to be on set piece duty.
Already advised
2.5pts Blackburn to beat Stockport (19:30) at 10/11 (General)
2pts Crewe or draw double chance vs Rotherham (19:45) at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Huddersfield to win to nil vs Morecambe (19:45) at 9/5 (Unibet)
1pt Femi Seriki to be carded in Sheff Utd vs Wrexham (20:00) at 15/2 (bet365)
Stockport vs Blackburn
- Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports+
- Home 13/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 17/20
Tom Carnduff
Both sides kicked off the Sky Bet EFL season with victory in their respective leagues, with the visitors particularly eye-catching in a 4-2 hammering of Derby on opening night.
Attention now turns to the Carabao Cup, where BLACKBURN provide plenty of appeal at near even money for success.
Stockport's early season injury crisis could see them without 12 senior players for this fixture, and their boss Dave Challinor has admitted he'll be fielding a side made up of youngsters and scholars as he simply can't afford to take any risks.
"It'll be a very young team," he is quoted as saying to their club media.
"We're not in a position where we can risk players. One came off on Saturday, if he's unavailable that takes us to 12 senior outfield players. We can't afford to risk anybody.
"It could be a tough night for us and I'm willing to accept that unfortunately in this situation. I haven't got a choice to make because I have to ensure we're as strong as possible for Blackpool next weekend."
Regardless of team selection for Rovers, they should be in a prime spot to secure victory because of this. Prices of 10/11 or so are available currently but it may be a case of settling for them as part of an acca come kick-off.
Huddersfield vs Morecambe
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports+
- Home 1/2 | Draw 3/1 | Away 17/4
Jake Osgathorpe
Huddersfield got off to the best possible start at the weekend under new manager Michael Duff, beating last season's League One play-off semi-finalists Peterborough 2-0 in a dominant display (xG: PET 0.41 - 1.53 HUD).
They welcome League Two Morecambe in the Carabao Cup, with the Shrimpers in a mess. They were comfortably beaten by Walsall on opening weekend, mustering just 0.24 xGF, with the return of Derek Adams (so far) not having the required impact.
Though the Terriers are the short favourites, I'd argue they should be shorter, and I think there is cracking value in backing HUDDERSFIELD TO WIN TO NIL at 9/5.
Michael Duff has a track record of taking this competition seriously. Across the last four seasons, Duff has seen his side progress past this round in all four, and that coming at three different teams (Cheltenham, Barnsley, Swansea).
Coincidentally, across those four games Duff's sides didn't concede a goal, though that could be something to do with him picking a strong XI.
Last season when at Swansea, he made just five changes from his side's opening day draw with Birmingham ahead of a home Carabao Cup game against League One Northampton, importantly keeping the same spine, and they went on to win 3-0.
I expect similar on Tuesday, and if that does happen, it should be a comfortable evening for the Terriers.
Rotherham vs Crewe
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports+
- Home 3/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 7/2
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
At Stevenage last season, Steve Evans' side progressed to the third round without actually winning a game in this competition. At his last three clubs (Stevenage, Gillingham and Peterborough) he has only won two of the 11 games his sides have played in the Carabao Cup.
I'm not sure if he has always been a rest and rotate man when it comes to this competition but he certainly was last term, so you would have to assume he will do the same for Rotherham on Tuesday against CREWE.
Crewe, on the other hand, don’t take the cup so lightly. Last term they beat Sunderland in this competition on penalties and Derby in a reply in the FA Cup.
The Railwaymen clearly like to punch above their weight which is why the 5/4 about them WIN OR DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE is worth a flutter.
Sheffield United vs Wrexham
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 4/6 | Draw 29/10 | Away 3/1
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
There is a bit of a needle between Sheffield United and Wrexham because of the side's recent FA Cup clash. There were two games, 10 goals (three in stoppage time), a missed penalty, eight yellows, one red card and a very angry Billy Sharp.
Billy Sharp after Sheffield United beat Wrexham last season.
— The Bladesman (@The_Bladesman) September 13, 2023
😂⚔️#twitterblades #sufc pic.twitter.com/3KuZaSqDQX
The bookies have priced the game like it is going to be played in a tasteful spirit though. Fools.
Two prices stand out for the Blades, only one will play though as they are both right backs. Alfie Gilchrist is 8/1 TO BE SHOWN A CARD and FEMI SERIKI is 15/2. The latter should start and is the official tip but keep an eye out for team news.
The youngster was carded six times on loan at Rochdale in 2022/23 in 32 appearances (0.27 cards per 90) which is why I was hoping for a price around 4/1 for him to be booked on Tuesday.
Keith Stroud is the referee at Bramall Lane and has dished out 90 cards in 27 appearances in this competition.
Odds correct at 1535 BST (12/08/24)
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